Election could loosen hold of Republican majority in state senate and assembly
Nov 04, 2024
MADISON, Wis. (WFRV) — Republicans hold a majority in both the Wisconsin state Senate and Assembly, and are close to a supermajority. They currently occupy 22 of 33 seats in the Senate and 64 of 99 in the Assembly.
“A supermajority is what we would call a veto-proof majority,” said Jerald Podair, Lawrence University professor of history and American studies. “Virtually any bill that they pass, that the Assembly passes, and that Gov. Evers vetoes will become law, because the veto will be overridden by that two-thirds.”
Election could loosen hold of Republican majority in state senate and assembly
With 67 members in the House and 23 in the Senate, Republicans would be unstoppable with no vetoes overriding their unified decisions. But Podair says that even though Republicans are close, that outcome is highly unlikely.
“The Republicans right now control 22 of the 33 seats; one seat is vacant. That would give them a supermajority, but I don’t think they are going to have that after tomorrow,” Podair said. As for the Assembly, “The Democrats tomorrow would have to pick up 14 seats. That’s a lot, and that would surprise me.”
The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that district maps must be redrawn by Gov. Evers, and this is the first election they will be in use since the 2021 maps, drawn as a result of the previous year’s census. Podair believes these new maps, which received bipartisan support, are more fair and accurate in their representation of Wisconsinites.
“Criticism of the old maps for the last 10 years is that the Republicans deliberately drew them so that they would retain the majority in both houses even though they might only win 51 or 52% of the statewide vote,” Podair said. “I don’t think that the new maps have been drawn in a way that would guarantee the Democrats a victory. I think they’ve been drawn in a fairer way that would still give the Republicans a majority.”
Podair is still predicting a Republican majority in the outcome of the election but believes that Democrats are closing the gap based on fundraising records.
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“I would predict that the Republicans would retain their majority in the two houses; they will just be narrower,” he said. “They will gain seats, and they certainly have worked hard to gain seats here—a 4-to-1 spending disparity between Democrats and Republicans. It at least says to me that the Democrats have more energy and enthusiasm.”
Podair’s prediction? An 18-15 split in the Senate, and 56-43 in the Assembly.