The statistical impact of Lions LB Alex Anzalone is jawdropping
Jan 08, 2025
Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images
The Detroit Lions defense looks completely different with Alex Anzalone in vs. out of the lineup. When the Detroit Lions’ defensive struggles were at its worst, fans clung to the hope that the few players who would return from injury could help resettle a Detroit defense that once ranked into the top five in nearly every metric. Unfortunately, the injuries only seemed to mount and the list of players who could return was incredibly short.
As the Lions headed toward their finale against the Minnesota Vikings, with so much on the line, the defense looked like it had finally been beaten. In the previous five games, Detroit had allowed an average of 30.0 points per game after allowing just 16.6 in the first 11 games of the season. The return of Jalen Reeves-Maybin didn’t seem to help against the 49ers, leaving the Lions with just one player still expected to return.
Alex Anzalone didn’t get a full week of practice in the leadup to the Vikings game—they ran a walkthrough on Wednesday and weren’t even in full pads on Thursday, but his return turned out to be enormous. Detroit held the Vikings to a season-low nine points and a paltry 262 yards of offense.
As it turns out, when you look at the entire season, Anzalone has been the lynchpin of Detroit’s defense, and the player who could help this unit thrive in the postseason.
The difference in defensive performance with vs. without Anzalone is staggering
Anzalone suffered a broken forearm in Week 11 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The loss was felt almost immediately, as you can see the defense took a nosedive starting shortly thereafter.
Here's a visual representation of what has happened to the Lions defense. The graph is reversed so that better games (lower defensive DVOA) appear higher. You can see that the Lions have had five straight games with defense worse than average. pic.twitter.com/p7taRAN7X3— Aaron Schatz (@ASchatzNFL) December 31, 2024
That’s a staggering visual. Now take a look at the raw numbers.
Lions defense pre-Anzalone injury (Weeks 1-11)
-219.2% DVOA — 2nd in NFL
-0.117 EPA/play — 2nd
41.2% success rate allowed — 9th
17.7 points allowed per game — 5th
73.6 passer rating allowed — 1st
4.3 yards per carry allowed — 11th
Lions defense without Anzalone (Weeks 12-17)
+96.5% DVOA — 31st in NFL
+0.127 EPA/play — 28th
46.3% success rate allowed — 21st
26.0 points allowed per game — 22nd
102.9 passer rating allowed — 27th
4.7 yards per carry allowed — 24th
Lions defense vs. Vikings in Week 18 with Anzalone:
-48.6% DVOA — 2nd
-0.260 EPA/play — 3rd
32.8% success rate allowed — 3rd
9 points allowed — 2nd
55.5 passer rating allowed — 2nd
6.3 yards per carry allowed — 31st
We’re literally talking about a top five defense plummeting to a bottom five defense, and then suddenly coming to life again the minute Anzalone steps back onto the field. It’s truly remarkable, but...
There are other factors to consider
For one, Anzalone was hardly the only player the Lions lost during that terrible defensive stretch. Reeves-Maybin was out during that entire span, Malcolm Rodriguez was lost in Week 12, Alim McNeill and Carlton Davis suffered injuries in Week 15, and reserves like Mekhi Wingo, Ennis Rakestraw, Khalil Dorsey, and Ifeatu Melifonwu missed time during this stretch as well.
You could certainly make the argument that it wasn’t about missing Anzalone, so much as it was about Detroit’s entire linebacker depth being gone. On top of Anzalone being sidelined, Detroit was without Derrick Barnes, Trevor Nowaske, Reeves-Maybin, and Rodriguez for a large portion of that defensive downswing. The Lions resorted to starting players who weren’t even with the team back in October.
Ezekiel Turner: 111 snaps — 49.7 PFF grade
David Long: 70 snaps — 54.0 PFF grade
Kwon Alexander: 29 snaps — 34.8 PFF grade
Jamal Adams: 20 snaps — 43.6 PFF grade
Anthony Pittman: 15 snaps — 44.0 PFF grade
The player they leaned on the most, Ben Niemann, has been with the team all year, but his impact was supposed to be mainly on special teams. Instead, he logged 120 snaps and earned a 55.2 PFF grade.
In other words, it’s not just about losing Anzalone, but losing all of their playable depth, too. Not to mention all of the injuries elsewhere, particularly the attrition on the defensive line that included injuries to Aidan Hutchinson, Marcus Davenport, John Cominsky, McNeill, Kyle Peko, Wingo, and single games missed by Josh Paschal and DJ Reader during that stretch.
Anzalone’s performance is undeniable
All of that said, it’s important to point out just how good Anzalone has been this year. For one, he’s been one of the best coverage linebackers in football this year, as evidenced by this graph highlighting his ability to prevent separation:
Raw separation prevented and on ball grade for 2024 LBs pic.twitter.com/0AraQflsTc— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) January 7, 2025
His talents were hugely missed in the Bills and 49ers games, when those offenses absolutely torched Detroit’s linebackers in coverage by targeting both backs and tight ends.
He’s also essential in the run game. His seven tackles for loss are only second to Brian Branch on the team.
His impact beyond his actual play
It’s not just about the production Anzalone produces on the field, but how he improves everyone around him.
“He’s our quarterback on defense,” coach Dan Campbell said Sunday. “He just brings—there’s a lot of confidence he brings, a lot of energy. He can calm the storms.”
During any game, you can see Anzalone—who has now mastered this defense after being a part of it for nearly a decade—communicating and directing traffic both pre and post-snap.
No one has benefited from this more than his linebacker-mate Jack Campbell. He’s having a phenomenal season in his second year in the NFL, but his play took a noticeable dip when Anzalone wasn’t next to him. From Weeks 12-17, Campbell’s PFF grade was just 67.9. In every other game with Anzalone by his side, that jumps to 79.1.
Is the Lions' defense magically fixed with Anzalone back in the lineup now? It’s hard to draw that conclusion with only one game’s worth of evidence. However, his importance to the defense was certainly on display Sunday, and Detroit will have a much better shot at a Super Bowl run with him in the lineup.