Dec 29, 2024
Reporters have pregame routines, too. When I arrive at an NBA arena outside of Denver, mine includes familiarizing myself with the most optimal route from press row to the visiting coach’s interview room. It’s not always as simple as descending the steps of the lower seating bowl and going through a court-side tunnel. If you’ve ever tried swimming against a current, it’s not fun. Sometimes there’s a more convenient staircase or elevator located off the main concourse. Sometimes it’s easier to fight traffic. Either way, indecision is not an option. I learned that last year as a rookie on the Nuggets beat, when poor navigation made me late to Michael Malone’s postgame news conferences in Indiana and Milwaukee. First, my job is to file a game story at the buzzer. As any beat writer covering any sport will tell you, the more dramatic a game’s ending is, the more difficult it is to file quickly. Buzzer beaters, walk-offs and overtime goals demand a couple of extra minutes. No complaints here. The added stress is often worth it. Those moments are why we all love sports. Why I love documenting sports. But I’ve been sprinting to make it downstairs a lot lately. This has been the year of the Cardiac Nuggets. In the last three regular seasons, 14.6% of their games were decided by three or fewer points. They played 12 one-possession games last season, 13 the championship campaign and 11 the year before that. Those are consistent, steady numbers. They’ve already played nine one-possession games (32.1%) in the first third of this season. That is why I’m declaring that the Nuggets’ 2025 New Year’s resolution should prioritize stress relief. We could all do better at self-care, right? In their case, possible solutions include winning the first, second and third quarters instead of only the fourth. “I think the key is, maybe we’ve just gotta be up at halftime,” coach Michael Malone said Friday. “We haven’t lost a game where we’re up at half. So if we’re not up at halftime, go home.” In the meantime, as long as this is the trend, it’s worth a closer examination of how often the Nuggets are in the pressure cooker, and how capably they’ve handled it. Because the nine one-possession games only scratch the surface. There’s the fact that Denver has won five games after trailing by double digits in the last 10 minutes of the fourth quarter, and that no other team in the league has pulled that off more than twice. Or that in the last 90 seconds of regulation in Nuggets games, there have been: • 10 ties • 18 lead changes (excluding lead changes that occurred in OT) • 10 winning teams that trailed during the last 1:30 • 6 game-tying or game-winning FGs in the last 10 seconds There are even more thrilling finishes that aren’t accounted for in those stats, such as Peyton Watson’s buzzer-beating block on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to preserve a win over the Thunder. Denver was protecting the lead for the entirety of the last 90 seconds that night, but the game still came down to the final play. To make room for moments like those in my assessment of Denver’s late-game theatrics, I thought of a stupid idea to track called GOLP (Game On the Line Possessions). What qualifies as a GOLP, you ask? Possessions during the last 30 seconds of regulation or the last 30 seconds of overtime in which the team with the ball is either tied or trailing by three points or fewer. Basically, it’s a chance to tie or win the game at a point when you aren’t guaranteed to get the ball back. Gulp. As I was calculating GOLP for the Nuggets and their opponents so far this season, I admittedly made some judgment calls on what qualifies from a timing standpoint. For instance, when Watson blocked Kyrie Irving’s attempt at a go-ahead 3-pointer on Nov. 10, the 30-second mark occurred during the shot. I didn’t count that, because the majority of the possession had already taken place. I did count Anthony Edwards’ go-ahead floater with 25.7 seconds remaining as a GOLP, however, even though the possession had started with more than 30 seconds. The timing of when he attacked the basket was true to the idea of what we’re evaluating here. Another example: After Jamal Murray’s game-tying layup with 0.3 seconds left in Toronto, the Raptors were officially credited with getting a full-court heave off before the buzzer. That’s an insufficient opportunity to qualify as a GOLP. But on Nov. 22 against Dallas, Denver needed to go the length of the floor in 3.8 seconds for a game-tying 3, only for Watson to throw away the inbound pass. That did meet my subjective criteria for a possession. That’s all to say this may be imperfect, but I didn’t want the numbers skewed by technicalities. By my count, 13 of the Nuggets’ first 26 games featured at least one GOLP. So, half of their games through Dec. 22. In 16 GOLPs, the Nuggets have scored 20 points on 8-of-15 shooting (8 of 12 inside the arc), with a 4-for-6 clip at the foul line and only one turnover. That’s good for a 125.0 offensive rating in those situations (GOLP rating?). In 15 GOLPs, their opponents are shooting 3 for 16, including 0 for 7 on 3s, totaling only eight points. That’s a 53.3 GOLP rating. I attempted to devise a formula to measure a team’s success rate on GOLPs, based on the general premise that if you score the necessary points to tie the game or take the lead, that is 100% success, whereas an empty-handed possession is obviously 0%. The Nuggets, on multiple occasions, have intentionally gone for two when trailing by three on GOLPs. That can’t be considered a flat-out triumphant result because you’re still behind, and the 2-pointer doesn’t guarantee you will accomplish the ultimate goal (which they eventually did, in both Toronto and Brooklyn). I count that as 66.7% success, because you’ve made up two of the three necessary points. If you’re intentionally fouled while down three, it was the opponents’ design to let you make up two of three points — they’re the ones succeeding by giving you 66.7% of the deficit — so converting both free throws counts for 33.3% success in my made-up system. If you’re fouled down three and miss one or both at the line, you’ve effectively failed to extend your chance to win or force overtime, and you need the opponent to make a mistake. That’s 0% success, even if one point was scored. If you’re still following, here are the results so far: The Nuggets have an impressive 51% success rate on GOLPs this season. Their opponents have only a 26.7% success rate. The discrepancy aligns with the raw shooting and scoring stats. Either the Nuggets are rising to the occasion at both ends of the floor when it matters the most. Or, if you don’t want to give them credit defensively, they’re still twice as good as their opponents at executing with the ball when the game is on the line. Luck clearly factors in when Dorian Finney-Smith misses a wide-open corner 3, or when DeMar DeRozan fumbles a pass 8 feet from the basket. Related Articles Denver Nuggets | Are too many 3s bad for basketball? Nuggets insulated from NBA-wide debate: “That’s not the make-up of our roster” Denver Nuggets | Grading The Week: Will someone please get Nuggets star Nikola Jokic some defensive help? Looking at you, Calvin Booth. Denver Nuggets | Nuggets give up season-worst 149 points in home loss to Cavaliers Denver Nuggets | Michael Malone blasts Sacramento Kings for firing Mike Brown via phone call: “No class” Denver Nuggets | Renck: Nikola Jokic’s frustration becoming impossible to ignore. Are Malone, Booth, Kroenke paying attention? Does all of this bode well for the rest of the season? On one hand, it’s more evidence that Denver’s 16-12 start was not a convincing one. This is a team that walks a tightrope. On the other hand, playoff basketball tends to be more tense and tightly contested (that bizarro Minnesota series notwithstanding), especially when the balance of power is so even across the West. I’m betting there will be at least one series this postseason in which the scales tip based on a few possessions at the end of games. Teams will be evenly matched, but the winner will be more organized and confident in the clutch. (Is that not what happened in the Nuggets-Lakers series last spring?) As for my postgame path-finding, I’m a little torn. You have to be careful what you wish for. Ultimately, I’d always prefer to cover exciting and memorable games, regardless of the winner. I’m too young to get jaded about this stuff. But these Nuggets are running an impressive campaign to become the least deadline-friendly team I’ve ever covered. I wouldn’t be opposed to saving just a little of the drama for later. I’ll make it one of my New Year’s resolutions to improve my average time from one seat to the next. And maybe the TV networks can make it theirs to give Denver a few playoff games before 8 p.m. local time. Want more Nuggets news? Sign up for the Nuggets Insider to get all our NBA analysis.
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