Dec 21, 2024
HONOLULU (KHON2) - The trade wind belt remains weakened and suppressed south of the islands leaving the forecast area in the zone of light winds and subsidence equatorward of an extended Pacific jet. The guidance has long advertised a kink in the mid-latitude flow developing this weekend, and this is now evident well west of the area near 40N/160E. This buckle in the flow will is evolving into progressive mid-latitude ridge that will amplify as it transits the Pacific during the next several days leading to surface pressure rises over and north of the Hawaiian Islands. This will in turn allow trades to rebound back into the area no earlier than Sunday night and and continuing through at least Monday. A few additional showers can be expected windward and mauka during this time, but high stability and a dry airmass will significantly limit shower coverage and intensity. High pressure then continues its eastward trek thereby returning the islands to a weakened trade wind state for the second half of the week. Winds veer to the SE during during this time in response to a weakening front approaching from the northwest. This will favor a return to a land and sea breeze pattern over the western half of the state. Dry and benign weather prevails for the forseeable future. Hazardous marine conditions will continue, with the biggest in an extended series of extra large overlapping northwest swells arriving Sunday. The next swell will likely be larger as it rapidly rises early Sunday morning and peaks through the day Sunday. Resulting surf should be giant, in excess of 40 feet along coastlines with the highest exposure, during the peak, and although the current High Surf Warning runs through Sunday night, an extension into the day on Monday is possible. High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island East, Big Island North. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay,
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