Why Harris lost, using the numbers
Nov 18, 2024
Let’s say that you’re a fan of your local college basketball team and you walk into the home arena. The place holds 10,000 people, and it’s sold out. It’s also the day after the last election, and you voted for Kamala Harris, and you’re feeling lousy.
You need a distraction from the illogic of it all, the sense that things will be even worse than you can imagine. How could this appealing, smart woman lose to this classic bull artist? None of the wise heads seems to know, which leaves you more depressed. You hope the game will lift your spirits.
But you are like most sports fans: you’re into statistics, and you’re obsessed not only with your candidate’s loss but at the sheer size of it. A landslide! So at halftime — the home team is losing — you scan the arena’s diverse crowd. How many of these folks voted for Harris, and how many for Donald Trump, you wonder?
How could this smart, decent, educated woman lose to this moronic con man? You Google the popular vote: Trump won 50.1%; Harris, 48.3%. You do some quick math: This would roughly mean that of the 10,000 fans in the stands, 5,010 voted Trump and 4,830 voted Harris. Pretty close. Still, she lost.
Did it come down to college degrees? You Google some more and discover that 37.7% of the country has college degrees, meaning that about 3,800 fans in the arena held at least a B.A.
But then you wonder how many are unemployed. You Google again: unemployment is at 3%, meaning that out of 10,000 here, only 300 are probably unemployed. Still not bad. And statistically, 2,100 people here are on SSI — old and on a fixed income, but not so broke they can’t afford a ticket to a game. That’s good!
Across the way a man is helping another man with a guide dog to his seat. Google says that 2% of us have vision loss — potentially 200 such people in attendance. A row below you is an older couple, and one, the woman, appears sick. Cancer? Some 5% of the total population are cancer survivors. Are there 500 cancer survivors here? Statistically, yes. And that man with the one leg over there — one of 160 at the moment without a limb in the arena.
The one legged man you notice is wearing a yarmulke. Google tells you that there are 1.3 million Jews in the city, which is about 10% of the population, meaning there are 1,000 Jews watching the game. This gives you another idea. Google tells you that 8% of New Yorkers are Arab or Middle Eastern, which comes out to 800 Arabs in the audience.
You’re enjoying this. It’s at least as good as the halftime show. You Google undocumented aliens: at last count they accounted for about 3% of the population, or (doing the math) potentially 300 lurking around you, in the building, possibly working here. Not a lot, but still.
You Google people with a green card: 4%. You are surrounded by at least 400 people here legally. Millionaires: 7.43 million people, or 2%. You look around suspiciously for any one of the supposed 200 millionaires in the building. This is fun! Next, drug addiction: “25.4% of all users of illicit drugs suffer from drug dependency or addiction.” Or — whoa! — 2,500 people!
The home team mascot comes out dressed as a clown. You Google clowns. There are 100,000 registered professional clowns in the country, which comes out to . . . one tenth of one clown, or less than one in the whole place, unless you count the mascot.
Your mind begins to wander, and on a whim you Google “transgender adults.” Google tells you that there are approximately 3 million in the U.S., or 1.14%. Which comes to approximately 110 transgender folks in the building with you at the time. Huh! Who knew?
The teams are returning to the floor and running their layup drills, but you’re still doing arithmetic. Then you remember the ad that the Trump campaign broadcast, where Harris is earnestly describing how she would ensure that all transgender prisoners in California jails would receive medical help, free of charge. You realize that the smallest group in the arena is transgender adults.
Smaller than cancer survivors, the disabled, of Jews or Arabs, those on Social Security, the unemployed, the blind, those with green cards, the drug addicted, undocumented aliens, and millionaires.
The smallest, except for clowns.
Barbarese’s latest book is “After Prévert: Poems from Paroles.”