Plus: Security concerns grow ahead of Election Day{beacon} Evening Report   ©  AP Photos Surprising polls, unusual voting patterns inject uncertainty ahead of Election Day Public polling shows an improbably tight race for the White House, with former President Trump and Vice President Harris effectively tied heading into Election Day.  That could portend a drawn out and contentious vote counting process — or the race could be called early, as a tiny polling error in one direction could set one candidate or the other up for a battlegrounds sweep and a convincing Electoral College victory. If the polls undercount Trump’s support by the same margins they did in 2020, he’d likely win every swing state.If the polls undercount Democratic support by the same margins they did in the 2022 House and Senate elections, Harris would win most or all of the battlegrounds. Nate Silver’s latest forecast finds Trump's slight advantage eroding in the past few days, effectively bringing the odds for each candidate to 50-50. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ model gives Trump a 53 percent chance of victory, which is essentially equivalent to a coin toss: National: Harris +0.1AZ: Trump +2.3GA: Trump +1.8MI: Harris +0.6 NC: Trump +1.4NV: Trump +1.3PA: Trump +0.7WI: Trump +0.2  The broader election narrative in the final days of the race has tilted toward Harris, with Trump ensconced in ugly controversies and a shocking Des Moines Register poll finding Harris with a 3 point lead in Iowa. Did comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s racist joke about Puerto Rico at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally break through? A new Univision/YouGov survey taken after that controversy finds Harris with a wide lead among Latinos in Pennsylvania. The Des Moines Register poll sent shockwaves through the political world. Still, few believe that Harris will win Iowa — an Emerson poll released the same day found Trump with a 10 point lead. However, Ann Selzer’s polls have generally hit the mark, while doubling as a useful regional forecast. In 2016 and 2020, the Des Moines Register polls picked up on Trump’s support among the white working class voters that broke his way across the Midwest and Rust Belt. This time around, Selzer’s poll finds women — and in particular older women — breaking in huge numbers for Harris. Selzer said the women she polled are animated by the issue of abortion. Iowa’s six-week abortion ban finally went into affect over the summer after being tied up in the courts. The Des Moines Register poll raised the possibility of Harris’s support among a “silent” contingent that are being undercounted in the polls.  According to NPR, some conservative women have kept their support for Harris a secret. Of course, the Trump campaign knows the "silent" voter phenomenon all too well, as pollsters undercounted his supporters in both 2016 and 2020.  The New York Times polling analyst Nate Cohn wrote over the weekend:  "Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.” That begs the question of turnout.  Republicans have embraced early voting in 2024 after Trump warned against it in 2020. This has led to a surge of early voting among Republicans, that has some Democrats worried.  “Early vote numbers are a little scary,” said Jim Messina, a top adviser to former President Obama’s campaigns. The Trump campaign touted the GOP's early voting turnout in a memo from chief data consultant Tim Saler on Monday:  "Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that’s asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing. If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?  The big question that won’t be answered until tomorrow is whether the GOP’s early voting is cannibalizing the party's Election Day turnout.  The Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston, who knows the state’s elections better than anyone, is forecasting a Harris victory in Nevada despite the GOP’s massive early turnout advantage in the state.  "There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause."💡 Perspectives: The Wall Street Journal: Trump isn’t perfect, but he’s the better choice. The Los Angeles Times: The case for Harris. Freddie DeBoer: Why I’m voting for Jill Stein. Nate Silver: The polls are close, but that doesn’t mean the election will be. The Hill: Pollsters just can’t get it right on Trump. Will Harris flip the script? The Liberal Patriot: Trends to watch for on Election Day. The Hill: Where top and down-ballot races stand on the eve of the election.  Read more:Harris, Trump both see paths to victory as election nears. Slight popular vote win for Harris could equal Electoral College victory.Latino voters ready to emerge from ‘garbage’ fight. Harris seeks boost from female voters to help her over finish line.Rashida Tlaib declines to endorse Harris. Welcome to Evening Report! I'm Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what's coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here.CATCH UP QUICK  Iran detained a U.S.-Iranian journalist as tensions run high. Hundreds of New York Times tech workers went on strike on Monday, threatening the paper's election coverage. Education ballot initiatives, from school board seats to funding fights, are flying under the radar this election cycle.  Quincy Jones, the multi-talented music titan who worked with Michael Jackson, Frank Sinatra and Ray Charles, is dead at 91.  NEW THIS AFTERNOON ©  Paul Vernon, Associated PressTrump, Harris make final arguments before polls close  Former President Trump and Vice President Harris made their final arguments to voters on Monday, as a nervous nation braces for what election analysts describe as the closest race for the White House in a generation.  More than 78 million Americans have already cast their ballots, as mail and early in-person voting options installed during the 2020 pandemic are poised to overtake Election Day voting as the preferred method going forward.  In battleground North Carolina, about 4.5 million have already voted, shattering the previous record of 3.6 million set in 2020, despite Hurricanes Milton and Helene wreaking havoc on the state’s infrastructure last month. Trump and Harris made their final bets Monday, which could tell us a bit about how they see the race: Harris spent the entire day in Pennsylvania, the swing state with the most Electoral College votes at play.Harris campaigned in Scranton and Allentown during the day. She has rallies planned in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia tonight, as she seeks to press her urban advantage. Harris has a vast network of celebrities fanning out to help her: Katy Perry in Pittsburgh; Fat Joe, Lady Gaga, Ricky Martin, The Roots and Oprah Winfrey in Philadelphia; Jon Bon Jovi in Detroit; James Taylor in Raleigh; 2 Chainz in Atlanta; and many more. After focusing heavily on “fascism” and casting Trump as a threat to democracy, Harris’s final message has glossed over Trump entirely. NBC notes that Harris didn’t mention Trump at all during her Sunday rally in East Lansing, Mich. In her final ad of the cycle, Harris pledged to be a “president for all Americans.” Trump will visit three swing states Monday: He made trips to Raleigh, N.C., and Reading, Pa., during the day, and he’ll finish tonight with a rally in Grand Rapids, Mich.Trump spent a few days in the final stretch focused on North Carolina, which is essentially a must-win state for him. North Carolina has only gone for the Democratic presidential candidate once since 1980.Find out what time the polls close in your state HERE.  Soon, all that will be left to do is to count the votes and watch as the returns come in.Harris will hold an Election Day event from her alma mater Howard University in Washington, D.C. Trump will hold an election watch party from West Palm Beach.It could be several days before the winner is known.  “We believe this race is going to be incredibly close,” Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters on Monday. “So, we may not know the results of this election for several days, but we are very focused on staying calm and confident throughout this period as the process goes through. Battleground Michigan could give an early indication of the way things are heading.  Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) told The Detroit News that since they’re able process mail-in ballots early this election cycle, and since about 75 percent of mail ballots have already been returned, they could have results by Wednesday, “if not sooner.”  The big question is how and when Trump will respond to the vote count, especially if it drags out over days or weeks.  Via The Hill’s Alexander Bolton: “Trump’s unwavering claims about the nation’s election system being “rigged” have steadily gained more acceptance among rank-and-file Republicans voters over the past four years, and his biggest Republican critics in Congress have either retired, will retire soon or have lost sway. Additionally, Trump allies around the country have worked to gain more influence over state and local election boards, which will be in charge of tallying votes and certifying the results.”  💡Perspectives: The Hill: Why we probably won’t know who won on Election Night. The Des Moines Register: Someone will win. It’s our job to accept it. The New York Times: Every vote in every state matters. The Wall Street Journal: The Senate stakes can’t get much higher.  Read more:Trump, Harris make last-ditch plea to voters ahead of Election Day. Rain forecast in key swing states on Election Day.Watch these counties for early clues to election night.   IN OTHER NEWS ©  AP Photo/David Goldman Roundup: Security concerns grow ahead of Election Day  There are growing concerns about foreign interference or politically charged violence as one of the most chaotic campaigns in modern times comes to a close.  The courts will be busy handling election challenges, which could add fuel to the fire. The Secret Service constructed 8-foot high metal fencing around the White House, the U.S. Capitol and Vice President Harris’s residence in Washington, D.C. The Secret Service is also planning to install physical barriers around former President Trump’s election night event in West Palm Beach. The FBI has flagged several false videos purporting to show election fraud that have been circulating on social media. At least one video has been attributed to Russia. Two ballot box fires have stoked concerns about election security and the risk of violence on Election Day. U.S. intelligence agencies have warned about a rising threat from political extremists. The Washington Post reports that the Biden administration is on heightened alert for foreign attempts to destabilize the U.S. during the transitional period between Election Day and Inauguration Day. The criminal cases against Trump hinge on the outcome of Tuesday’s election. If Trump wins, he Justice Department could squash the special counsel case against him. Trump could also be shielded by federal guidelines that prevent a siting president from being prosecuted. If he loses, all of those cases — including his sentencing in the hush money case — could move forward. Swing state officials are already preparing for potential disruptions around the December meetings between electors. Republicans are challenging absentee ballot returns in deep blue counties in swing state Georgia, citing mandates that drop boxes close when in-person early voting concludes. A record number of wealthy Americans are making plans to leave the U.S. after the election, CNBC reports. 💡 Perspectives: The Hill: Election litigation is getting scary.The Hill: Expect the worst from the Supreme Court.   🖊️  PUNDIT CORNER "America's class politics have turned upside down," by Rogé Karma for The Atlantic. "New York Democrats get their squirrel," by The Editorial Board for The Wall Street Journal.  ⏲️  COUNTDOWN  Election Day is tomorrow. 77 days until Inauguration Day 2025. 🗓  ON TAP Monday Trump holds a rally in Pittsburgh at 6 p.m. and a rally in Grand Rapids, Mich., at 10:30 p.m.Harris holds rallies in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia this evening.TuesdayHarris holds an Election Day event at Howard University.Trump holds an election watch party in Palm Beach.   UNDER THE RADAR  There a story you think should be getting more attention? Something people should be talking about? Drop me a line: [email protected]   Stay Engaged  You're all caught up! Stay with TheHill.com for the latest and recommend this newsletter to others: TheHill.com/Evening. See you tomorrow. Close Thank you for signing up! Subscribe to more newsletters here The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox. Sign up for the Evening Report newsletter Subscribe