Students walk over a taped down seam between two sections of the floor at South Burlington High School on Monday, October 21, 2019. Photo by Glenn Russell/VTDiggerThis story by Liberty Darr was first published in the Other Paper on Oct. 31. Two neighboring school districts in Chittenden County — Champlain Valley School District and South Burlington School District — have seen conflicting enrollment trends over the last five years.According to a state education profile report published by the Agency of Education in August, total enrollment in Vermont public schools — including pre-kindergarten through 12th grade — has steadily declined between 2003 and 2023 by a little over 6 percent. The decline in kindergarten through 12th grade during that same period was nearly 14 percent, although much of this change occurred pre-pandemic.Schools in the Champlain Valley School District — the state’s largest district — have kept on par with the statewide trend with total enrollment declining nearly 7 percent between 2019 and 2024, according to data provided by the district. Most notable is Hinesburg Community School, where enrollments in pre-kindergarten through 8th grade dropped more than 11 percent during that time frame. Shelburne Community School similarly has seen a 7 percent decline and Charlotte Community School, a nearly 6 percent decline.“We are seeing a slow, steady decline across our elementary schools,” Gary Marckres, chief operations officer in the district, said. “Specifically, the trend is declining, although that was supported by the demographic report that we had done in 2022, but we are declining a little more than that demographic report suggested that we would.”South Burlington, meanwhile, has seen a different trend with enrollment slowly but steadily increasing. This year, total enrollment for the school district is roughly 4 percent higher than it was in 2019, according to data provided by the district. Demographic reports commissioned by the district show that those numbers are only set to increase in the coming years.South Burlington School District administrators have long been aware of the enrollment trend. In 2021, they switched most of their focus to finding solutions to overcrowded elementary schools that, at the time, exceeded the state-recommended 85 percent capacity by more than 100 students.The school installed eight zero-emission modular classrooms — four at Rick Marcotte Elementary School and four at Orchard Elementary School — that cost roughly $6 million. The portable buildings range in size and use, and school officials have previously said they can help to provide an immediate, albeit temporary, solution to a longer-term problem.The district’s three elementary schools — pre-kindergarten through 5th grade — have seen an increase of roughly 200 additional students since 2019. Chamberlin Elementary School has seen a nearly 6 percent increase in enrollment, while Rick Marcotte Central School has seen a 2 percent increase. But enrollment at Orchard Elementary School has decreased by roughly 7 percent. That elementary school also does not offer a pre-kindergarten classroom.Keeping with the trend, the city’s Frederick H. Tuttle Middle School has also seen an increase of about 3 percent.While elementary school statistics for both school districts may be different, high school enrollment has declined at both Champlain Valley Union and South Burlington high schools. Total enrollment at CVU has dropped 3 percent since 2019, while South Burlington High School has seen an 11 percent drop in student population.Total enrollment at South Burlington High School in 2024 is 818. At CVU, it is 1,268.For Champlain Valley, Marckres explained that those numbers make sense since the 9th-grade classes coming into the high school simply have not been as big as the senior classes going out.But the root of the problem, he said, is much larger.Interim superintendent Adam Bunting called the enrollment trends in the district since 2016 “daunting” and in a presentation to the Shelburne Selectboard in September said that an aging population in the state compounds the problem when less people are having children.But each town also faces its own set of unique issues as most of the state grapples with an increasing affordability crisis. From the rising cost of living to increasing property taxes, stemming in part this year from a shift in the state’s education funding formula, school officials recognize that this all negatively affects school enrollment.Lack of available housing only adds to the issue, Marckres said. Enrollment trends between the two districts mirror the availability of housing within the towns that make up the districts. According to the Vermont Housing Needs Assessment, South Burlington has the third-highest number of total homes in Chittenden County — behind Burlington and Essex.“My take is that South Burlington has emphasized and built quite a bit of affordable housing over the last five years. I think the connection with housing is at the root of this,” Marckres said.But for the towns that make up most of Champlain Valley School District, the number of new homes being permitted slowed down during the pandemic and in the years since. Combined with a reduction in taxing capacity that came about through the shift in the education funding formula and adjusted pupil weighting with declining enrollment, “it’s a pretty big cause of concern,” he said, referring to when the district starts crafting its budget.“It’s not a standalone issue,” Marckres said. “From my perspective, this is not a CVSD position. I look at jobs, economic development, the incentives to bring new people into Vermont, it’s a statewide problem.”Read the story on VTDigger here: Chittenden County school districts see different enrollment trends.