As we flip the calendar into November, October was something else around these parts. We finished the month 5.5° above average and while the month was so dry for so long, the last week or so of the month pushed us to the 63rd-driest October in weather record history, which in the big scheme of things was sort of half way down the list. What was interesting to me was the fact that we had 14 days of the month with highs at least 80°, that was unusual and the most since 1963 when we had 22 which is the most for October. That 14 is #6 on the list of most 80° or higher in October. Very interesting. The overall forecast heading into the first part of November is generally mild, no big shots of cold air coming for awhile, and generally wet as well. There will be a wet system from Saturday PM into early Tuesday and another one likely later next week. So the first half of November will be be wetter than average and November overall only gives us around 2" on average... so November will likely to be wetter than average. Forecast Today: Sunny and seasonable with highs in the lower 80s Tonight: Fair and not as cold with lows in the mid 40s Tomorrow: Clouds increase in the morning with some showers/storms possible later in the day with more rain into the evening. Highs in the low to mid 60s depending on the rain timing. Earlier and it will be cooler. Later and it may be a bit warmer. Areas NW of the Metro will get into the rain earlier in the afternoon. Areas towards the east of KC may wait till tomorrow night for rain to arrive into Sunday morning. Sunday: Not a total rain out but there will be periods of rain at times. We start mild and end in the mid-upper 60s, breezy as well. Discussion The drought that remains in place will continue to ease over the coming 10 days as more rain is coming. The atmosphere overall will be very supportive of generating rain, rather easily, since it's going to be loaded with moisture. As I mentioned yesterday, we may see near or record levels of atmospheric moisture for November in the region over the coming days. When you have that set-up, essentially 2-almost 3 times the normal amount of moisture in the atmosphere, any little wave coming into that moisture will enhance the lift and create areas of rain and storms. Whether that be on top of us or to the southwest of the region, and then move toward us, the overall look is wet. It may not be continuously wet, there should be intermittent dry times over the weekend, and things may be slow to start tomorrow around the Metro, but once they get going, you'll know we're vulnerable to additional rains. Tomorrow morning rain will be developing towards the southern Plains. The flow of air will take that rain towards us as the day moves along. The initial 1st batch may be somewhat directed towards NE KS and NW MO, so it will be a wetter afternoon the farther north you go into that region it appears and that may keep their temperatures in the 50s. It's not out of the question that the Metro gets into the rain a bit earlier as well. This complicates the temperature forecast for us because a faster arrival of the rain will stop the temperatures from rising and may actually drop temperatures when the rain gets going. It will be one of those days of watching radar. Overall though that combination of crazy water levels in the atmosphere and various disturbances coming up from the southwest will create decent to big rains in the region overall. Most areas should get at least 1" with some getting 2-3" worth of rain. It does appear the I-44 corridor may be set up for 3-6" of rain from the situation. That is a big rain in an area that has severe drought conditions, and that should eliminate most of the drought that has developed. The flow in the atmosphere that is going to bring the persistent waves from the southwest is due to a system in the NW. As that system drops into the Four Corners area later Sunday and slowly moves into the eastern parts of New Mexico later Monday, we remain vulnerable to disturbances being kicked out and flowing towards us. As I mentioned, it will take nothing to generate showers/storms. At this point I'm not expecting severe weather locally. I do worry about the Monday Night Football situation though with regards to rain, and if there is an ill-timed wave coming in, the potential of lightning as well. Last night's EURO model did indicate some lightning in the vicinity during the evening on Monday. That would be problematic. The run after that though did have it displaced about 25 miles farther south, but it's a bit too close for comfort. Important to note that with these fast-moving waves the model timing may well be off, and perhaps the lightning factor will end faster than the model thinks. Trailing clouds on Tuesday may help keep temperatures in the 50s There will likely be another decent system toward the end of next week as well and that may well impact the region Friday through at least next Saturday so we may have back-to-back sketchy weekends around these parts. The feature photo is from Matthew Smith out towards Knob Noster State Park Joe