Oct 02, 2024
RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) -- Following the 2024 Presidential Debate, Vice President Kamala Harris has lost 4 points of her previously-10-point lead over former president Donald Trump in Virginia, according to the most recent polling by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The VCU L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs conducted this "Post-Debate 2024 Commonwealth Poll" from Sept. 16 to 25, according to an Oct. 2 press release from the university. 832 Virginians aged 18 or older were surveyed over the phone. They were randomly selected, both from lists of landlines and by random digit dialing cellphone numbers. The final results, after the university weighed the results against the entirety of Virginia's adult population, found that 43% of Virginians favor Harris and 37% favor Trump -- a 6-point difference. The Wilder School's last poll, conducted prior to the Sept. 10 presidential debate, reported that Harris had a 10-point lead over Trump (46% to 36%). This was a marked, drastic shift of Virginia's favor towards the Democratic Party after President Joe Biden left the race, as VCU polls favored Trump prior to Biden dropping out. “The slip in the Harris lead, though not alarming, should be a wake-up call, as the sampling error of plus or minus 4.64 sends a message," said L. Douglas Wilder, former governor of Virginia (D) and spokesperson for the poll, in the release. "Independents could make a real difference. The race in Virginia could be decided by who gets their voters to turn out, and voting has already started.” PREVIOUS: New polling shows Harris with a big lead in Virginia; political analyst says race with Trump won’t be close in Virginia Wilder's concerns are supported by the poll's findings: those surveyed who identified themselves as Independents favored Trump over Harris by a large margin of 13 points (29% to 13%). In the last VCU Wilder poll, Independents still favored Trump, but he only led by 5 points at that time. A smaller portion of Independents said they will not vote in this poll than they did in the last (16% now, 22% previously) -- but a larger portion said they're currently undecided (19% now, 11% previously). Harris and Trump remain overwhelmingly supported by their own parties, with 86% of surveyed Democrats saying they will vote for Harris and 79% of surveyed Republicans saying they will vote for Trump. Notably, though, this is a 5-point gain for Harris over the last poll (81% previously) and a 1-point loss for Trump (80% previously). Regarding the issues, Virginians continue to say the cost of living (33%), reproductive rights (20%) and immigration (12%) are their top concerns this election cycle. This has been consistent across VCU Wilder polls. However, the trust Virginians have in either candidate to address economic woes has shifted. Previously, Harris and Trump managed to "virtual[ly] tie" on that front, with 38% of those surveyed trusting Harris and 37% trusting Trump. In this most recent poll, Trump has pulled ahead by a few points (42% to 38%). In this Wilder poll, respondents were also asked about who they trusted more to handle their other two top issues. Here, Trump and Harris each took home a win. Virginians trust Trump more when it comes to handling immigration-related issues (42% to 38%), with Trump holding a 4-point lead over Harris. By a large margin, Virginians trust Harris more when it comes to reproductive rights (49% to 23%) -- a difference of 26 points.
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