Sep 30, 2024
Jewish Americans represent a small fraction of the electorate, but many are concentrated in critical swing states and congressional districts and historically have participated at higher rates than the general public. This means our community will play an outsize role in determining which party controls the White House and Congress. We know Jewish voters have been especially politically motivated this year in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks in Israel and skyrocketing antisemitism at home. Both parties and all candidates should be paying special attention to our concerns and will benefit from learning how our community has impacted past races. That’s why the TEACH Coalition is releasing a first-of-its-kind study examining the history of the Jewish vote in the United States. Here are the major findings: Jewish voters have not always been attached to one party. In recent years, it has been accepted wisdom that Jewish voters are loyal Democrats. But as our study shows, that hasn’t always been the case: In 1920, Jewish voters broke overwhelmingly for Republican Warren G. Harding. But by 1928, they moved into the Democratic column, when Democrat Alfred E. Smith garnered 63% of the Jewish vote. In 1980, however, a majority of Jewish voters voted against President Jimmy Carter over dissatisfaction with his policy toward Israel. The implications for the current cycle are clear: Neither party can take our community’s votes for granted. This has been borne out in recent polling conducted by TEACH Coalition, which found that the race in Pennsylvania is nearly a dead heat among Jewish voters, 49% for Vice President Kamala Harris and 42% for former President Donald Trump. In 2020, national polls showed Joe Biden winning the Jewish vote in Pennsylvania 68% to 30%. The trend held but was less pronounced in select New York swing districts, with 56% for Harris and 37% for Trump, down from 68% in 2020 to 30% in favor of Biden in 2020. Widespread antisemitism can lead to long-term political realignments. Antisemitism has been called “the oldest hatred,” and it has reared its ugly head many times in our history, with significant political ramifications. As our report details, in the aftermath of World War I, a wave of antisemitism swept across America, partly in response to fears about the rise of socialism and communism. This widespread bigotry actually played a role in encouraging American Jews to turn away from socialism. In 1920, 16% of Jewish voters supported Socialist candidate Eugene V. Debs — the most support a Socialist has received from American Jews. As we confront yet another rise in antisemitism this year, Jewish communities nationwide are paying close attention. Our polling found 67% of Jewish voters in Pennsylvania and New York say that factor makes them more likely to vote this fall. If candidates fail to offer meaningful solutions that make the Jewish community safer, they risk alienating this constituency for years to come. Even small shifts in Jewish voting behavior can tilt elections. Recent polling indicates that this year’s election is a statistical coin-flip, coming down to several thousand votes in key swing states — and our study shows how Jewish voters could be the difference-makers. In six presidential contests, the margin of victory was so small in states with large Jewish populations, that even a slight shift in Jewish votes could have altered the outcome. This was true with Wilson-Hughes in 1916, Truman-Dewey in 1948, Kennedy-Nixon in 1960, Carter-Ford in 1976, Bush-Gore in 2000, and Trump-Clinton in 2016. This also held for many important congressional races, such as the 2011 Queens/ Brooklyn special election between Bob Turner and David Weprin, where Turner became the first Republican to hold that seat in nearly 90 years after garnering heavy support in the Jewish community. Jewish voters were also critical in the 1964 U.S. Senate race in New York, and the 1992 U.S. Senate contests in Pennsylvania and New York. In June’s primary between George Latimer and Jamaal Bowman in New York’s 16th district, the TEACH Coalition’s grassroots organizing efforts helped to turn out 58% of eligible Jewish voters in Westchester. Those voters represented one out of every four ballots cast overall, including 35% of early ballots. We’re just getting started: We recently launched a nationwide nonpartisan Get Out the Vote effort, which will mobilize Jewish voters through large-scale grassroots campaigns in New York, Pennsylvania, and other states. History shows that Jewish voters wield significant political influence. With less than two months until Election Day, we’re ready to vote for our future. Litwack is the founder and CEO of the Teach Coalition. Medoff is the author of more than 20 books, and hundreds of essays, on Jewish history, Zionism, and the Holocaust as well as the study “Understanding the Jewish Vote.”
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