Sep 23, 2024
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 remains disorganized but, there is a high liklihood that it will become a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 24-48 hours. Helene is the next name on the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Name List. It is located about 130 miles SSW of Grand Cayman and moving slowly to the north before it is forecast to take a northwest turn in the next few days. It is expected to pass throug hthe Yucatan Channel and enter into the Southern Gulf of Mexico by midweek. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are currently in effect for Mexico and Cuba. The storm will accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf and approach Florida by Thursday. Models are in pretty good agreement with the forecast track, but due to the lack of a well-defined center there remains a lot of uncertainty with the forecast. Envirnomental conditions in the Gulf are highly favorable for this storm to intensify. Gulf waters are above 85 degrees, there is plenty of moisture, and shear is relatively low in the Eastern Gulf. The National Hurricane Center is anticipating significant strengthening with the storm forecast to become a strong category 2 hurricane by Thursday. Impacts: Rainfall – 4-8 inches for Western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated areas up to 12 inches. Heavy rain is expected for the southeast U.S. starting Wednesday with the potential for flash and river flooding. Storm Surge – 2-4 feet for the Southern Coast of Cuba and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Wind – Tropcial storm conditions are expected in the warning area by Tuesday with hurricane conditions possible for areas under the watch by Wednesday.
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