Sep 18, 2024
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) -- Vice President Kamala Harris has established a commanding lead over former President Donald Trump in Rhode Island in the two months since she became the Democratic nominee, according to a new survey released Wednesday. The University of New Hampshire Survey Center “Ocean State Poll” of 738 Rhode Island registered voters found Harris at 58% and Trump at 38%, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2% and almost no voters undecided. Harris's 20-point lead over Trump is on par with President Joe Biden's edge in Rhode Island in a previous UNH poll conducted in May, though both he and Trump scored lower support as then-candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. took 6% of the vote. Harris's current lead is in line with the final results in Rhode Island in 2020, when Biden defeated Trump 59% to 39%. The last Republican to win the state was Ronald Reagan in 1984. "This isn't a surprise," 12 News political analyst Joe Fleming said of the poll results. "Since she announced, she has generated great enthusiasm around the country and in the state of Rhode Island." A separate UNH survey of Massachusetts voters, also released Wednesday, showed Harris with an even bigger lead over Trump, putting her ahead 62% to 31%. The survey of 738 Rhode Island voters was conducted online and by text message from Sept. 12 to Sept. 16, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Unsurprisingly based on the overall poll results, the UNH survey finds Harris is significantly more popular than Trump in Rhode Island, largely due to her strong ratings among self-identified Democrats. The poll shows 54% of Rhode Island voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 36% say the same about Trump. His unfavorable rating is 62%, while hers is 42%. Broken down by gender, Harris holds an enormous 50-point lead over Trump in Rhode Island among women with a college degree, as well as a smaller but sizable lead of 28 points among men with a college degree. Trump is ahead by 13 points among men without a college degree, but Harris leads him by 27 points among non-college women. Fleming said Trump generally polls better with non-college men across the country. "But because the other groups in Rhode Island are so strongly for the vice president, he's trailing greatly," he said. Self-described moderate voters in Rhode Island are also breaking for Harris, with 62% of them supporting the Democratic nominee. But Trump holds a slight edge among unaffiliated voters, 48% to 45%. And while Harris leads among all age groups in Rhode Island, the race is much closer among voters ages 35 and up. There has also been a major swing in sentiment among Rhode Island voters over the outlook for the election. In July, just 28% of voters said they thought Biden would win a second term, but today 55% say they expect Harris to take the White House in November. JULY'S POLL: Biden unpopular in RI but still leads Trump; stronger in Mass. There was significant interest in last Thursday's televised presidential debate in Rhode Island, which scored high ratings locally. Half of Rhode Island voters in the UNH poll said they watched the entire debate, with another 20% saying they watched most of it. Harris scored high marks among those who watched, while 47% rated Trump's performance as "very poor." Trump supporters in Rhode Island were significantly more likely than Harris supporters to say they shy away from expressing public support for their candidate, though in both cases, a majority of voters say most people they know are supporting the same candidate they are. The top issues among Rhode Island voters surveyed were immigration (cited by 18% of voters), the economy (17%), abortion and women's rights (14%) and defending democracy (11%). Rhode Island voters' top issues in the 2024 election as of September 2024. (credit: UNH Survey Center) UNH also asked Rhode Island voters their opinions about election integrity locally and at the national level. Rhode Islanders were split about voter fraud nationwide, with 49% calling it a very or somewhat serious problem and 50% saying the opposite. They were more optimistic about the situation in Rhode Island, with just 33% calling voter fraud a very or somewhat serious problem in the state and 60% saying the opposite. Republican voters in Rhode Island are far more likely to say voter fraud is a serious issue, while independents consider it serious nationally but not locally, and Democrats are generally unconcerned about the issue at either level. The poll shows 37% of voters think fraudulent mail ballots are used frequently in Rhode Island, the highest score for any example of fraud. Ted Nesi ([email protected]) is a Target 12 investigative reporter and 12 News politics/business editor. He co-hosts Newsmakers and writes Nesi's Notes on Saturdays. Connect with him on Twitter, Threads and Facebook. Your Local Election HQ☆ Latest Headlines »☆ Race Results »☆ Voter Guide »☆ Where They Stand »
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