Sep 18, 2024
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates from the current target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Fed funds futures data suggests the market is split on whether central bank policymakers will lower rates by a half point or a quarter point. The Fed will issue its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. BlackRock’s Rick Rieder says to take advantage of ‘golden age’ of fixed income With Federal Reserve rate cuts likely imminent, investors should make the most of this “golden age of fixed income” now, according to Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s global chief investment officer of fixed income. He believes there is a shift coming to the market, where equities will do no better than “OK” and tech stocks will no longer enjoy the “fever pitch” they have had. Instead, investors should buy yield “and just watch it do its thing,” he said. “The idea of, ‘Gosh, I can lock in for three to five years — and you don’t have to go out to 30 years — I can lock in these yields for the next three to five years.’ I think it’s a pretty compelling proposition,” said Rieder, who manages the BlackRock Flexible Income ETF (BINC). To find out where Rieder is investing right now, read the full story here. —Michelle Fox Where markets stand ahead of the Fed’s decision The major averages flickered near the flatline as the Federal Reserve’s rate decision approached. As of 1:39 p.m. ET, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were up nearly 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed about 28 points, or just shy of 0.1%. Treasury yields inched up, with the rate on the 10-year note trading at about 3.67%, reflecting a nearly 4 basis point jump. The 2-year Treasury yield added about 5 basis points to trade at 3.64%. –Darla Mercado Rates are expected to drop. Revamp your fixed income holdings The Federal Reserve’s high interest rate regime – with the current target range of 5.25% to 5.5% – rewarded investors who stashed cash into money market funds and high-yield certificate deposits, but that party is about to end. High yields on cash are set to come down once the Fed dials back rates, meaning investors should redeploy some of that money into bonds with greater duration. Intermediate-term bonds allow investors to lock in today’s higher yields while mitigating exposure to dramatic price swings tied to interest rates. CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full story here. –Darla Mercado CNBC Pro: What the stock market does historically after the first Fed rate cut With the Federal Reserve expected to make its first interest rate cut in four years Wednesday, it’s time to take a look at how the stock market performed at the start of prior easing cycles. What the stock market did historically after the first Fed rate cut depended largely on the economy, historical data shows. In total, across all cycles, the S&P 500′s performance in the aftermath of the first cut was largely positive but with some big misses when the economy turned down. CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full story here. — Sarah Min These are the most attractive dividend stocks to buy ahead of Fed’s rate-cutting cycle There are a few high-dividend stocks — including several energy names like Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips — with strong upside potential that investors can tap into as the Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates. Lower rates should make the yields for dividend stocks even more attractive, lifting the group. These stocks can also be used as a reliable hedge against any economic slowdown in case central bankers end up being behind the curve on rate cuts. Using the CNBC Pro Stock Screener tool, we searched for stocks with a dividend yield above 3% and a low debt-to-equity ratio under 60%. So they have big payouts and are low debt loads, meaning they should be able to keep paying that dividend. They’re also poised to see 10% or more upside, per analysts. Click here to view the results on CNBC Pro’s Stock Screener tool and to make your own screener. Read the full story in CNBC Pro. — Pia Singh Here are some stocks that do well when the Fed cuts rates with no recession Many investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will be able to stave off a recession as it eases monetary policy from current levels. Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro screened for stocks that have done well when the Fed cuts rates without a recession. Some of the names that made the cut are Nike, Amgen and UnitedHealth. CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full list here. — Fred Imbert More than just a rate cut: What to expect from the Fed’s decision Traders are eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s rate decision – and the conclusion of the central bank’s two-day meeting promises to be riveting. The Fed is expected to make its first rate cut since 2020, but markets are split on whether policymakers will trim by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. One basis point is equal to one one-hundredth of a percent. Currently, the Fed’s target range for rates sits at 5.25% to 5.5%. Wall Street will also delve into the Fed’s “dot plot,” where policymakers share their expectations for rates over the next few years. At the conclusion of this meeting, the central bank officials will also issue their Summary of Economic Projections, which includes forecasts for gross domestic product and inflation. Read more from CNBC’s Jeff Cox on what investors can expect from the Fed. –Darla Mercado Here’s where consumer rates stand as markets anticipate a cut from the Fed The Federal Reserve is expected to make its first cut to interest rates on Wednesday after more than two years of tight monetary policy. The central bank’s target rate range currently sits at 5.25% to 5.50%. Higher rates have been tough on borrowers, with the rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rising to 6.12% as of the week of Sept. 13, according to Mortgage News Daily. That is up from 4.29% during the week of March 11, 2022, just prior to the Fed kicking off its first hike. Home equity loans have also become more expensive, with rates rising to 8.49% as of last week, compared to 5.96% back in March 2022, according to Bankrate. Credit card interest rates have also jumped more than 400 basis points since the Fed started its rate increases, rising to 20.78% as of last week, Bankrate found. One basis point is equal to one one-hundredth of one percent. The Fed’s tight policy has provided a silver lining to savers, however. The annual percentage yield on a five-year certificate of deposit has jumped to 2.87%, up from 0.5% in March 2022, according to Haver. Yields on money market funds have also jumped, sitting at 0.46% last week, versus the 0.08% paid just before the Fed began tightening policy in March 2022, Haver found. — Darla Mercado, Nick Wells Uncertainty around the possible size of Fed rate cut swirls ahead of the decision In the hours leading to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, investors remain split on the extent to which policymakers will cut rates. Fed funds futures trading suggests a 55% likelihood that central bank officials will dial back rates by 50 basis points, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. They also imply a 45% probability of the Fed lowering rates by 25 basis points. Currently, the Fed’s target rate range is 5.25% to 5.50%. One basis point is equal to one one-hundredth of a percent. Investors should watch what they wish for, according to Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America. The firm anticipates a 25 basis point cut on Wednesday, warning that a 50 basis point cut could ultimately be a worrisome sign. “Risk assets might initially rally on the back of this dovish surprise,” Bhave wrote Wednesday. “But we’d caution investors that the act of cutting by 50bp means the Fed is less confident about a soft landing.”  — Darla Mercado
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