WASHINGTON (WOWO) — The polar vortex has been disrupted earlier in the calendar year than ever recorded, but forecasters say the development does not signal an immediate blast of Arctic air across the Midwest or the rest of North America. The FOX Forecast Center says the disruption could eventually influence weather patterns across the continent, but any significant cold-weather effects would likely take several weeks to develop. For now, long-range forecasts favor a milder-than-average November and early winter across much of the United States. The polar vortex is a band of powerful winds that circles the North Pole roughly 10 to 30 miles above Earth’s surface. Those winds normally help keep the coldest Arctic air contained near the pole. Weather patterns in the lower atmosphere can send powerful waves into the stratosphere. When those waves become strong enough, they can weaken, displace or split the polar vortex. In some cases, the disruption can even reverse the circulation’s normally strong west-to-east winds. That can increase the chances of Arctic air moving south, but the effects are neither immediate nor guaranteed. The FOX Forecast Center says computer models are not currently showing any major cold-air outbreaks in the near future. Changes high in the atmosphere can take several weeks to work their way downward, eventually influencing the jet stream and broader weather patterns. If the disruption produces noticeable effects across North America, they are more likely to develop in late November or December. For now, the coldest air is concentrated over Eastern Europe and Siberia, while North America remains much warmer than average. That pattern is limiting the potential for an extended stretch of Arctic cold across the United States. A strengthening El Niño is another major factor shaping the outlook. The climate pattern has helped strengthen the Pacific jet stream, carrying milder air from the Pacific and bringing more storms across the country. That combination is expected to favor above-average temperatures through November and into December, making it more difficult for prolonged cold to settle in. The Climate Prediction Center’s long-range outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the northern United States, including the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Brief cold spells remain possible, but the overall pattern currently points toward a relatively mild start to winter. Even if the polar vortex disruption becomes the earliest major breakdown on record, forecasters caution that it does not automatically mean colder weather or heavier snow will arrive earlier. The post Polar Vortex Disrupted Earlier Than Ever, but That Doesn’t Mean an Early Blast of Winter appeared first on WOWO News/Talk 92.3 FM and 1190 AM. ...read more read less