Decision Desk HQ, which partners with Nexstar's NewsNation, projects Los Angeles City Councilwoman Nithya Raman has defeated incumbent Karen Bass in L.A.'s closely watched mayoral race. The Associated Press, however, has not declared a winner. With 76% of the votes counted as of Thursday morning, Raman lead Bass by roughly 34,000 votes out of more than 820,000 votes tallied. Raman’s margin has increased with each update since election night, when early returns first showed Bass with a narrow lead. “I think it would be very unlikely for Karen Bass to overtake Nithya Raman,” said KTLA political analyst Jessica Levinson. “I think all the expectations were Bass needed a solid lead on election night because those later ballots would likely break for Raman. That’s what we’re seeing with the updates and that’s what I think we’ll expect to see throughout the rest of the week.” Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell told the AP he estimated that Bass, generally viewed as more centrist than Raman, needed an 8-point cushion on election night to buffer the expected late rush of left-tilting votes. “Everyone understands that in Los Angeles there is a traditional blue shift,” Mitchell said in a text, referring to late-arriving votes. In a race of Democratic rivals “the later voters will be more heavily skewed toward the progressive,” or in this case Raman. Bass's struggles Bass, 73, took office in 2022 after serving in the California State Assembly and the U.S. House of Representatives. She narrowly edged out billionaire developer Rick Caruso, who toyed with running again for mayor or California governor in 2026. Caruso later announced he would vote for his former opponent, but refused to call it an endorsement. Many analysts trace Bass’s likely defeat to waning popularity during and after the Palisades Fire of January 2025, which leveled more than 12,000 structures and killed 12 people in the Pacific Palisades and Malibu. L.A. Mayor Karen Bass speaks at a press conference addressing the fires in LA County, in downtown Los Angeles, on January 16, 2025. (Photo by Katie McTiernan/Anadolu via Getty Images) Despite dire warnings of the risk from forecast Santa Ana winds, Bass traveled to Ghana on a cultural mission, only to rush back to Los Angeles as homes were ablaze. Questions about the city’s preparedness, the real-time response of fire crews and the pace of rebuilding the fire-ravaged areas have lingered throughout the second half of her first term. Bass has also faced ongoing criticism for the costly and largely unsuccessful efforts to address L.A.’s ongoing homeless crisis. The mayor’s landmark Inside Safe program has spent upwards of $400 million, only to see homeless numbers increase from when she took office. If elected, Raman has said she would reduce the number of people sleeping in tents and encampments by at least 50% by 2028. She wants to expand medical teams that would bring care to encampments and others living on the streets, in an effort to build trust with those individuals and bring them indoors. She also wants to provide more housing to move people out of hotels rented by the city for people experiencing homelessness. Los Angeles mayoral candidate Nithya Raman dances with supporters at an election night event Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong) Raman, 45, is a member of both the Democratic Party and the Democratic Socialists of America. Her victory would mean the nation’s two most populous cities would be led by socialists, with Zohran Mamdani elected as New York City’s mayor last year. In addition to Raman, two other socialists were elected mayor of major U.S. cities on Tuesday: Janeese Lewis George in Washington, D.C., and Katie Wilson in Seattle. Nexstar is the parent company of KTLA. The Associated Press contributed to this report. ...read more read less