All INdiana Politics for Nov. 1 INDIANAPOLIS — With Election Day two days away, Indiana party leaders and political analysts are watching a closely contested secretary of state race, legislative contests that could affect the Republican supermajority in the state House, school referendums, and voter turnout. There is no U.S. Senate or gubernatorial race in Indiana this year. Voters will decide races for secretary of state, state treasurer, state comptroller, the U.S. House, the Indiana House and Senate, as well as county and township offices. Some school corporations also have referendums on the ballot. Public Question 1 would amend the Indiana Constitution to allow judges to deny bail for crimes other than murder or treason. Democrats hope to gain from voters’ frustration with the Trump and Braun administrations and concerns about the cost of living. Republicans say those same concerns support keeping their party in power. Democrats see opportunities in statewide and House races Indiana Democratic Party Chair Karen Tallian said she was optimistic about Tuesday’s results and predicted Democrats would do well. She said she sees opportunities in the state treasurer and comptroller races, although Republicans have held both offices for more than 40 years. Tallian said Democratic candidates Jessica Bailey and Coumba Kebe have raised more money and performed better than previous Democratic candidates in those races. She also said Democrats are confident they can win the four House seats needed to break the Republican supermajority in that chamber. Tallian identified Hamilton County and other northern Indianapolis suburbs as areas to watch. She said several House races there, along with the secretary of state race and a congressional contest, could offer a measure of how the night is going for Democrats. Tallian said affordability had initially appeared to be voters’ top concern, but she said corruption had risen to the top in recent weeks. She expects national political anger to affect Indiana turnout despite the absence of a presidential, Senate or governor’s race on the ballot. Tallian said she invited Indiana Republican Party Chair Lana Keesling to appear on the program. Keesling expressed interest but declined, citing scheduling conflicts. Secretary of state race draws attention The panelists identified the secretary of state contest as one of the election’s most closely watched races. Host Garrett Bergquist said Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the race as leaning Democratic and cited two recent polls showing Beau Bayh with a narrow lead and many voters undecided. Republican commentator Mario Massillamany said Republican candidate Max Engling could still win if Republican voters turn out. He argued that independent candidate Greg Ballard could draw votes from Engling. Massillamany also criticized Bayh’s campaign advertising and said he believes the race remains competitive. Democratic commentator Laura Beck said Bayh had run a strong campaign focused on issues and had benefited from divisions among Republicans. She said poll methodology and the way pollsters sample voters matter when interpreting the results. Beck said Republicans’ divisive primaries and public disputes had made it harder for their candidates to catch up. Massillamany disagreed, saying Bayh’s campaign was acting as if he were running for governor rather than secretary of state and questioning whether voters understood the office’s responsibilities. Congressional race and suburban districts The Cook Political Report changed its rating of the congressional race involving Republican U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz and Democrat J.D. Ford to “lean Republican” on Friday, after previously rating the seat as safely Republican. Beck said Ford has a realistic chance, arguing that the district is changing politically. She said voters in suburban counties and communities may be shifting, even though rural areas remain strongly Republican. Massillamany said Spartz could win, but argued she should have defined Ford earlier in the campaign. He criticized Ford’s past positions and said outside spending to support Ford would not necessarily change the outcome. Legislative races and school referendums Massillamany said he is watching state House races involving Becky Cash, Danny Lopez, Chris Jeter and Hunter Smith. He described the Cash and Lopez contests as close and said Democrats are investing heavily in some suburban races. Beck said she will also watch school district referendums, including those in districts with legislative races. She said she wants to see whether lawmakers who supported Senate Enrolled Act 1, which she described as reducing local government authority and putting pressure on schools, face consequences from voters considering school funding questions. Beck said affordability, fuel costs, data centers and national political issues have become important to Indiana voters. She said the cost of filling a gas tank may be on voters’ minds as they head to the polls. Massillamany agreed that the economy will affect turnout. He said Democrats appear energized while some Republicans may be apathetic or discouraged. He argued that Republicans need to turn out to win, while warning that low turnout could help Democratic candidates. Neighboring states also in focus The panelists also discussed races in neighboring states, including U.S. Senate contests in Ohio and Michigan and competitive races in traditionally Republican states such as Kansas and Texas. Beck said results in the Cincinnati area could draw attention in southeastern Indiana because the region shares a media market. She said voters across the country are motivated by concerns about the economy, President Donald Trump and government corruption. Massillamany said economic concerns are driving voters and argued that Republicans have a few days left to make their case. He said lower Republican turnout could affect races in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. The program said it would provide live Indiana election results, reports from key races and analysis on Election Day. ...read more read less