FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WOWO) — Social Security recipients could receive a larger cost-of-living adjustment next year, with early estimates putting the 2027 increase somewhere between 3.4% and 3.6%. The estimates come after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released August inflation figures showing the Con sumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W, was up 3.5% over the previous year. The annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, is designed to increase benefits as the cost of living rises. The adjustment is calculated using CPI-W data from July, August and September. The official 2027 COLA will not be known until the September inflation figures are released next month. The 2026 COLA was 2.8%. Several organizations have now issued preliminary projections for next year’s adjustment based on the inflation data available so far. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the 2027 COLA will be 3.4%. AARP is projecting a 3.6% increase, while the Senior Citizens League estimates the adjustment will be 3.5%. AARP’s estimate incorporates inflation projections from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland for September. Rich Johnson, vice president of financial security at the AARP Public Policy Institute, said the preliminary estimate is intended to give Social Security recipients an early indication of what their benefits could look like next year. “Family budgets have been under increasing pressure because of rising prices. The sooner that we can give them reliable information as to how much their benefits might increase next year, the sooner they can start planning,” Johnson said. Johnson cautioned that the September inflation numbers are not yet final, but said the available data has narrowed the range of possibilities. “With only one month of inflation data to go until the 2027 COLA is finalized, there’s less uncertainty about what that increase will be,” he said. “Unless prices change dramatically in September, we’re confident that the COLA will be in the mid-3% range.” The Senior Citizens League lowered its projection slightly after the August inflation report, moving its estimate from 3.6% to 3.5%. At that level, the group estimates the average Social Security benefit would increase by about $67.90 per month. The average monthly benefit used in the Senior Citizens League’s calculation would rise from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98 with a 3.5% COLA. The Senior Citizens League’s executive director, Shannon Benton, said the remaining uncertainty centers largely on what happens to inflation during September. “The biggest thing we’re watching with the COLA announcement coming are short-term shocks to the economy that push inflation way up or down in the next 30 days,” Benton said. Benton also said the official COLA may not fully reflect how inflation affects older Americans because the CPI-W measures spending patterns for urban wage earners and clerical workers rather than specifically tracking the expenses of retirees. “No matter if the COLA announcement comes in slightly higher or slightly lower than our prediction, seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run,” Benton said. “The reality is that older Americans allocate their budgets differently than people still in the workforce, so inflation hits them differently. The CPI-W captures the experience of urban wage earners, which doesn’t represent the average senior’s budget,” he added. The distinction is significant because Social Security recipients can have different spending patterns than the population measured by CPI-W, particularly when it comes to expenses such as housing, health care and other costs faced by older households. For now, the estimates remain projections rather than the final benefit increase. The last piece of inflation data used to calculate the 2027 COLA is scheduled to be released October 14, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports September CPI figures. The Social Security Administration will then announce the official 2027 COLA after that data is available. The post Social Security recipients could see bigger cost-of-living increase in 2027 appeared first on WOWO News/Talk 92.3 FM and 1190 AM. ...read more read less