A new study offers an ominous warning about Bay Bridge traffic if two transit measures on the ballot this November fail to pass, though critics note the report was produced by a think tank that has strongly endorsed both measures. The analysis, conducted by the nonprofit think tank SPUR, warns of major impacts for drivers and commuters if transit agencies are forced to make service reductions due to a lack of funding. The biggest concern is significantly worse traffic on some of the Bay Area’s busiest roads, including estimates that traffic on the Bay Bridge could double during rush hours. “The failure of these measures would be devastating for communities and our economic recovery,” San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie said. Tuesday, Mayor Lurie and state lawmakers used the information to again urge voters to support the transit funding measures. “People will be spending more to get to work, and will be spending more time on the road, and that also impacts our region’s economic prosperity as well,” said State Sen. Jesse Arreguin. “Make no mistake about it, transit is facing a critical moment here in the Bay Area. This is an emergency.” Agencies like BART, Muni, AC Transit, and Caltrain are facing so-called fiscal cliffs after ridership and fare revenue fell dramatically during the pandemic. Tuesday night, all three agencies are preparing for dramatic service cuts in case the measures fail. Those measures — Proposition RTM, a five-county sales tax, and Prop. H, a parcel tax for Muni in San Francisco — aim to save the agencies from dire fiscal straits. “Both Prop. H and the regional transit measure must pass to keep these transit systems strong,” said State Sen. Scott Wiener. “If the regional transportation measure fails, BART will collapse. I’m not being melodramatic — BART will collapse.” SPUR says transit cuts would also affect family budgets and the environment, adding up to $3,200 a year in costs for some riders who are forced to switch from riding transit to driving. In addition to estimated peak-hour delays doubling on the Bay Bridge, SPUR believes there will be additional congestion at the Caldecott Tunnel and on most major highways. The analysis also estimates transit cuts could generate 498 million additional vehicle miles traveled each year, producing hundreds of thousands of metric tons of carbon dioxide yearly. However, critics are pushing back against the findings. Gregg Dieguez, president of the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, leads the group opposing the regional measure. He says the report fails to explore other alternatives, including reallocating funding from other transportation projects, and does not prove transit cuts are the only option. “We want fixes before funding,” Dieguez said. “Before asking Bay Area residents for another $1.2 billion a year, the transit establishment should demonstrate that it has considered the full range of lower-cost transportation revenue and network design alternatives.” Dieguez added, “Why are they looking at this only one scenario? It’s because they want to generate fear to get this thing passed. The real choice is whether we continue financing an extraordinarily capital-intensive transportation model designed for yesterday’s commuting patterns or use this moment to build a transportation system that is smaller, where demand has permanently fallen.” ...read more read less