INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. (WOWO) — Indiana is leaning toward a warmer-than-normal fall, while precipitation could run below average as a strengthening El Niño begins to influence weather patterns across the country. The latest seasonal outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center covers October throu gh December and favors above-normal temperatures across nearly all areas east of the Mississippi River, including Indiana and much of the Great Lakes region. NOAA’s precipitation forecast is less favorable for the Great Lakes. The agency sees a modest tilt toward below-normal precipitation across parts of the region, although that signal is considerably weaker than the warm-temperature forecast. That means the forecast does not call for a consistently warm or dry three months. Seasonal outlooks describe the odds of average conditions over a broad period and cannot predict individual storms, cold snaps or warm spells months in advance. NOAA’s outlook is being driven in part by a rapidly strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific. The Climate Prediction Center says there is now a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. NOAA also puts the chance at 75% that the October-through-December event will reach historic strength, exceeding the strength of El Niño events dating to 1950 under the agency’s measurement criteria. El Niño does not produce the same weather everywhere. NOAA’s seasonal outlook shows the strongest precipitation signal farther south, where much of the southern United States is expected to have better odds of wetter-than-normal conditions. The agency says the Great Lakes and parts of the interior Northwest instead have a modest signal favoring below-normal precipitation during October, November and December. For temperatures, the warm signal is considerably broader. NOAA forecasts above-normal average temperatures across most of the western, northern and eastern United States during the three-month period. Across the northern United States, including the Great Lakes, NOAA says the odds favoring relative warmth range from roughly 40% to 50%. NOAA also cautions that a seasonal temperature forecast does not rule out cold weather. Individual cold-air outbreaks can still occur even when the three-month average is expected to finish above normal. The agency says the current El Niño is among the strongest events being monitored in decades. Sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have climbed more than 3 degrees Celsius above average in some areas, while NOAA’s latest measurements show continued strengthening of the ocean-atmosphere pattern. For Indiana, the practical takeaway for the final three months of 2026 is a forecast tilted toward warmer-than-normal temperatures and somewhat drier-than-normal conditions, with considerable day-to-day and storm-to-storm variability still possible. NOAA’s seasonal outlooks are updated regularly as new observations and forecast information become available. The agency’s next longer-range outlooks will provide additional detail as winter approaches. The post Indiana Could See Warmer-Than-Normal Fall, NOAA Seasonal Outlook Shows appeared first on WOWO News/Talk 92.3 FM and 1190 AM. ...read more read less