It has been 10 years since anyone other than a Republican won a top-ticket state government election in Montana, and eight years since a majority of voters rejected a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate. That red streak is the stage setter for a high-stakes test in this year’s U.S. Senate rac e. Can a well-financed independent candidate notch an unprecedented win by tapping the state’s large reservoir of voters who claim to reject party labels? (No matter who they actually vote for, Montanans, when asked to identify with a party, claim independence by a percentage larger than voters who identify as either Republican or Democrat.) And can Montana’s political math shave off enough frustrated voters from both major parties to add up to a winning plurality? Some observers say Seth Bodnar’s well-organized campaign offers a clear test case. So does Bodnar, a West Point graduate and Iraq War Army veteran who in February resigned his job as president of the University of Montana to run for U.S. Senate as a candidate without a party. “Our goal here is to build a broad coalition, to give voice to the largest voting bloc,” Bodnar told Montana Free Press on June 15. “We believe we can build what we call the sensible majority.” “I’m asking folks to declare their independence from elected officials who are working for themselves, their donors, consultants.” Bodnar isn’t the only one pursuing a third-way path to Congress, either nationally or in Montana.  The number of congressional candidates running as independents is growing faster than at any point in the last two decades. Organized independent congressional campaigns have more than doubled since 2008, according to the Federal Election Commission. This year, 263 independent candidates are running for Congress, an 80-candidate increase over 2024.  The rising tide of independent candidates coincides with a record number of American adults identifying as independent. Gallup put the national proportion of voters identifying as independent at 45% in 2025, while Democrats and Republicans each registered at 27%. About 20% of self-described independents told Gallup they lean Democratic in their ballot choices, while 15% said they leaned Republican. Similarly, polling done by Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling for MTFP showed 42% of Montana voters identifying as independent in the 10 days leading up to the start of early primary voting this year. “Republican” was the self-identified party for 39% of respondents, while just 19% of voters polled identified as “Democrat.”   Some political observers say Bodnar is more likely to succeed than most of the independent candidates running for federal office this year, in part because of the broad support he’s received from prominent Democrats and former Republican governor and past Republican National Committee Chair Marc Racicot. His campaign’s Achilles heel might be that Democrats have fielded their own candidate, Alani Bankhead, who is too poorly funded to be legitimately competitive for the seat, but who is very capable of spoiling Bodnar’s chance at garnering a plurality of votes in a four-way race that includes Republican candidate Kurt Alme and Libertarian candidate Kyle Austin in addition to Bankhead and Bodnar.  “Seth Bodnar may be the best chance for an independent to win the Senate this fall,” said Paul Rieckhoff, founder of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, an advocacy group focused on “the new greatest generation” of veterans. Rieckhoff likes former Green Beret Bodnar’s blend of Rhodes Scholar academic credentials and elite Army bona fides.  Reickhoff hosts the New York-based “Independent Americans Podcast” and has interviewed more than three dozen veterans running as independents for Congress in 2026. He told MTFP on June 9 that running independently of the major parties appeals to many veterans who, after a career of putting country before partisanship, aren’t comfortable joining a political organization.  He’s had Bodnar on his show, and also retired U.S. Army Colonel and cardiologist Michael Eisenhauer, the independent candidate challenging U.S. Rep. Troy Downing in Montana’s Eastern Congressional District. Nationally, the only independent running for Congress who is better funded than Bodnar is Dan Osborn, per federal election data. Bodnar has raised more than $2.1 million. Osborn has raised $3.8 million. Osborn made national news in 2024 by capturing 46.5% of the vote in his challenge to Republican U.S. Sen. Debra Fischer — Nebraska’s closest U.S. Senate race in 24 years, according to the Nebraska Examiner. Osborn’s 2024 campaign became a roadmap for other independents, in part because Nebraska Democrats withdrew from the race when it became clear that Osborn had better odds of winning. Osborn is back this year running against Nebraska’s other incumbent, Republican U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts. But persuading even voters who identify as independent to support an independent candidate is difficult, said Kevin Smith, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln who has followed Osborn’s two Senate runs. Most independent voters still prefer candidates from an established particular party.   “A lot of ‘independents’ actually are pretty darn consistent in voting for one major party than the other,” Smith said. “The truly consistent ticket splitters are a fairly small tribe these days.” In 2024, when Osborn came within 7 points of defeating Fischer, the incumbent was a well-funded Republican who, according to Smith, hadn’t done anything to suggest that Republican voters would be in play for anyone but Fischer. But Osborn positioned himself as an anti-party candidate and peeled off a significant number of Republican votes regardless. “I think that’s the key to a competitive independent campaign, not just focusing on that [independent] bloc, but all blocs,” Smith said. “At least in Nebraska, there seems to be a certain level of dissatisfaction with both major parties, and Osborn managed to really tap into that.”  The Osborn-Fischer race was a two-candidate race. A three- or four-way race is even more likely to favor the presumptive frontrunner, Smith said. In Montana’s case, that frontrunner is Republican Kurt Alme, the former U.S. attorney who was twice nominated, and whose Senate run has now been endorsed, by President Donald Trump. “If it’s a competitive race and a no-hoper candidate of a major party stays in, that can be enough to torpedo an independent campaign,” Smith said. “The context of the election — who is in the White House and how popular they are at that moment — also plays a role. And there’s all the usual stuff, name recognition, funding, etc. etc.” Both Osborn and Bodnar are entangled in multi-candidate races this year, with Democrat Bankhead having vowed not to drop out in Montana. In Nebraska, Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank has said she will drop out if it becomes clear she cannot win, a move her party supports. Bodnar has had similar breaks to Osborn’s, drawing support from traditional pillars of Democratic influence, but the Montana Democratic Party isn’t clearing a path, even as Democratic donors in D.C. fundraise for Bodnar rather than Bankhead.  Bodnar, like Osborn, has also been allowed to use ActBlue, the small-donation bundler that’s nearly exclusive to Democratic campaigns. ActBlue’s rules allow narrow exceptions for independents in partisan races, but weigh “major factors,” including whether a Democrat is in the race, whether the Democratic Party has endorsed the independent’s campaign, and whether the candidate can demonstrate that they align with Democratic policies and priorities. Osborn checks all three criteria, while Bodnar doesn’t appear to clear the first two. Among the well-funded independent campaigns for Congress, only Bodnar and Osborne show donations from the ActBlue pipeline. Several political action committees that previously supported former Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester and two-time Western District House candidate Monica Tranel have run ads supporting Bodnar exclusively this year. Bodnar was $1 million ahead of Republican Alme in fundraising by mid-May. Tester and former U.S. Sen. Max Baucus are fundraising for Bodnar and encouraging Montana Democrats to do the same, arguing that the Democratic brand has become harmful to Montana candidates. Tester has called the national party “poison” to his past campaigns. Bodnar’s campaign is staffed by former members of Tester’s political team. “There is not a viable path for a Democratic victory in this race,” former Montana Democratic Party Chair Nancy Keenan said in a letter to Democrats after the June 2 primary.   Recent election results suggest that Democrats have indeed hit a vote ceiling in top-ballot races. Democrat Steve Bullock, twice elected Montana governor, managed just 272,000 votes in 2020 against Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, who won by more than 61,000 votes. Tester received 276,000 votes in 2024, but still lost reelection by 43,000 votes to Republican newcomer Tim Sheehy. Tester’s loss looked like the end of the line for a party that had squeaked out its Montana U.S. Senate wins with less than 50% of the vote in two out of three elections from 2006 through 2018. Similarly, Bullock had won the governor’s office with just 48.9% of the vote in 2012. Montana Republicans have been quick to label Bodnar as “independent in name only,” just a Democrat working an end-run to avoid the party’s baggage. Osborn has faced the same critique in Nebraska. Such repudiation of independents as secretly partisan keeps policy differences out of the discussion, said Sarah Zabel, a retired Air Force major general running for Congress as an independent in Idaho. The dismissal also illustrates the hyperpartisanship she said has ground work in Congress to a standstill.  “What does Republican mean?” said Zabel, a former Republican who says the GOP left her, not the other way around. “Does it mean we declare war on Venezuela? Does it mean we reveal the Epstein files, or hide the Epstein files? When the Republican Party, and their platform and their principles, does a 180, do you really think everyone is going to come with you?” In Montana’s Eastern U.S. House District, Michael Eisenhauer said voter sentiment about the major parties has changed enough to persuade both left-leaning and right-leaning independent voters to try something different.  Michael Eisenhauer “They’re just tired of vitriol, they’re tired of finger-pointing,” Eisenhauer said. “Whenever I talk about the government shutdowns, without fail, they roll their eyes and they’re like, ‘yeah, it’s not good, Congress can’t even compromise, even a little bit, and instead they just go on vacation.’” Eisenhauer is the second independent candidate to run in Montana’s Eastern District since 2022, when Gary Buchanan won 22% of the vote — a slightly better showing than that year’s Democratic candidate, Penny Ronning. Eisenhauer said he’s learned from Buchanan’s experience and is grounding his campaign in digital advertising and retail politicking. Buchanan injured his foot during his 2022 campaign and was in a cast for months, which made it difficult to campaign. In the east, voters have long given Republicans comfortable margins. This year’s incumbent, U.S. Rep. Troy Downing, won nearly 70% of the vote against Democrat John Driscoll in 2024. Driscoll raised less than $5,000 for the campaign cycle. “I’m finding an appetite for something different,” Eisenhauser said. “And hopefully we’ll be able to reach enough people and share who I am and what we’re talking about and what we’re trying to do that we might be given a chance, and that’s the most I can ask.” The post Independents day? appeared first on Montana Free Press. ...read more read less