A hurricane on radar(Brian McGowan / Unsplash)Hurricane season is here. Science Behind the Forecast examines the predictions for the season.This transcript was edited for clarity and length.Bill Burton: It's time for us to take a look at the Science Behind the Forecast as I'm joined by WAVE 3 mete orologist Tawana Andrew. Good morning, Tawana.Tawana Andrew: Good morning. And today's topic is the Atlantic hurricane season, because we're now into what I think is a lot of people's least favorite season.BB: I don't think you're going to get a lot of pushback on that one. June 1 to November 30, that's hurricane season. How is it shaping up this year?TA: As of right now, we're looking to have a relatively quiet hurricane season, which we'll take it. NOAA (National Oceanographic Atmospheric Administration) is predicting a 55% chance of a below normal season. There is a 35% chance of a near normal season and a 10% chance of an above normal season. We are going to take those chances for sure.BB: Let's just go with it.TA: Exactly! Especially after last year. Something quiet, no one's going to be complaining. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are forecasting eight to 14 named storms, three to six of which could become hurricanes, and one to three of those could strengthen into major hurricanes. For context, an average hurricane season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, so most of our categories are right at or just below that. It's important to note that this is not a landfall forecast. This does not mean that all of these storms are going to hit land somewhere, the Caribbean or the US.BB: That's something that really needs to be kept in mind.TA: Some of these storms may be just out to sea and be fish storms. Honestly, that is just fine.BB: Fish storms? Is that a meteorological term?TA: Yes, it is! We call them fish storms, as they just kind of hover out into the Atlantic, or the Caribbean Sea, or the Pacific. Just going to be out there, fish storms just bothering the fishes and whales and not humans overall.Colorado State, which pioneered the hurricane season forecasting back in 1984, is predicting the quietest hurricane season that we have seen since 2015. That year, the planet saw the strongest El Niño in 75 years.We talked a couple weeks ago about the quote “super El Niño.” It can have an impact as we head into this season as well. We're looking at that strong El Niño, because with an El Niño, they're usually stronger than normal westerly winds at the upper levels of the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic region. This basically, I will put it this way, it kind of guillotines a storm, it rips this top off of the storm. Just strips it apart and keeps it from growing.BB: That's a great thing, right?TA: We don't want these storms to blossom and grow, so it just rips the tops off of these storms and keeps them from becoming anything. In an El Niño year, the risk of the Caribbean or the continental US, especially along the Atlantic coast, their chance of seeing landfall from any kind of storm drops significantly. The other thing that El Niño does, it also basically makes the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic more stable, which also makes it harder for storms to form. ...read more read less