Ask any Democratic candidate for Montana’s Western Congressional District about the upcoming primary and you’ll hear a similar refrain: The primary is just prologue; the real race is in November. Implicit in that obvious reminder is each candidate’s promise: I’m the one who can win in Novem ber. I’m the party’s best bet, after years of defeat, to seize a congressional seat that could, this year more than most, be within the right candidate’s reach.  The particular circumstances of the seat, and of the 2026 election cycle, are critical to that proposition. First there’s the district: MT-01 includes Missoula, Bozeman and Butte, all rich with Democratic voters, and despite its overall Republican lean, it’s as friendly a map as Democrats are likely to see any time soon. Former Sen. Jon Tester, the last Democrat to hold statewide office in Montana, carried the district in his losing 2024 campaign, confirming that western Montana voters are willing to cast a blue ballot. More important perhaps than the shape of the district is the timing: In March, incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke announced he wouldn’t seek re-election, abandoning the advantage of incumbency and opening the door for a fiery GOP primary. Analysts are suggesting the 2026 midterm could be difficult for congressional Republicans running on the coattails of President Donald Trump — and one would be hard-pressed to find a Trumpier bunch of Republicans than those running for the First District this year.  But nothing is guaranteed. Trump’s favorability is still just above water in Montana, where voters have overwhelmingly supported him in three successive presidential elections. Election analysts still rate the district as a likely Republican hold, meaning the Democratic nominee will have to capture a chunk of independent and Republican voters to win in November. And surrounding the district’s Democratic strongholds are more than a dozen historically conservative counties where the eventual Democratic candidate will have to convince voters that Montana’s high cost of living, Trump’s foreign policy and other party-loyalty stressors are severe enough to embrace something new. But before they confront those questions, the four Democrats running to represent MT-01 have to distinguish themselves from one another. During a series of campaign events and candidate forums this spring, they’ve had a chance to emphasize their personal histories and stake claims on issues including housing, health care reform, money in politics, the pros and cons of data centers, and U.S. aid to Israel. And each is navigating their relationship with a national Democratic Party that Tester has called “poison” and an “anvil” that hung over his failed 2024 reelection bid.  There’s Ryan Busse, the firearms executive-turned-industry-critic who ran for governor in 2024. There’s Sam Forstag, a former smokejumper and union organizer who advertises his working-class bona fides and carries the endorsements of independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and one of Montana’s major trade unions. There’s Russ Cleveland, a rancher and former childcare executive who’s positioned himself as a “progressive independent” on the field’s left flank. And there’s Matt Rains, a rancher and political moderate making the case that voters want a multi-generational Montanan with agricultural cred a la Tester.  Three of the candidates — Forstag, Cleveland and Busse — are generally progressive in outlook and share significant ideological overlap. That similarity has led to conflict along other lines, including attacks aimed at the candidates’ wealth, their relationship to donors and endorsers, and their commitment to excising the influence of money from politics.  Those attacks came into clear focus at an April candidate forum in Helena, when Forstag especially took hits from Busse and Cleveland. Cleveland suggested that Forstag’s endorsement by the state AFL-CIO would compromise his opposition to data centers, which are controversial with voters, but generally supported by trade unions for their promise of new jobs. Busse suggested that Forstag would accept dark money contributions because his campaign website has a “red box” — information and marketing materials that outside groups could use to build advertisements supporting him. (It’s worth noting that an outside group that spends money in support of a candidate is only a “dark money” group if it doesn’t report the source of the money it spends.) “One of the tenets of my campaign is that I think we should hold ourselves to a higher standard — Democrats to a higher standard,” Busse said during the forum. Forstag responded that he, like Busse and Cleveland, refuses to accept “dark money” or corporate PAC money, and then attacked Busse and Cleveland for their personal wealth, amplifying his claim as the only “working-class” candidate running for the seat. (Rains, meanwhile, says a Democrat needs all the help he can get, corporate or otherwise, to win in the district). How these intraparty disputes over campaign support and the role of organized labor in the Democratic coalition will resonate with voters remains to be seen. But whether they pick a future congressman or not, primary voters have a rare opportunity in the state’s western district to steer their party’s identity out of a stalled-out past and into its future form, win or lose.  RYAN BUSSE Key quote: “I think it’s time, in these dark times, these serious times that we’re in, that we should elect a fighter, somebody with integrity, somebody ready to sacrifice for this place. I’ve done it. I’m excited to do it again.” Age: 56 Residence: Kalispell Montana roots: Born in Kansas, moved to the Flathead Valley 31 years ago Professional background: Former executive at Kimber America. Wrote a memoir about his time in the gun industry called “Gunfight: My Battle Against the Industry that Radicalized America.”   Key endorsements: Former Gov. Brian Schweitzer, U.S. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) Notes: Sons Badge and Lander Busse were plaintiffs in Montana youth-led climate litigation. Ryan Busse has done this before. Sort of.  In 2024, Busse, then a first-time candidate, cruised through a Democratic primary to challenge incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte, attacking him as “creepy” and “fascist.”  Gianforte bested the upstart by about 20 points, but the race gave Busse time on the campaign trail, a voice on the state’s airwaves and face-time with voters that his current competitors can’t claim. This time around, he said, the voters he’s talking to are tired of Trump and his hold on the GOP. They’re less invested in the MAGA social agenda — cracking down on immigration, restricting LGBTQ+ rights and expression, and generally owning the libs — than they are concerned about the cost of living.  “There was just so much culture war fervor … two years ago, and I don’t sense any of that now,” Busse told Montana Free Press. “I sense a lot of worry and anger and betrayal and so much commonality with what Democratic voters are worried about — health care, can you afford rent? I think that’s so much healthier now because people are worried about the same stuff, right?” Busse told MTFP he didn’t necessarily plan a second run for office so soon after his 2024 loss. He said a call from former Democratic Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who lost a race for U.S. Senate before winning the governorship in 2004, helped convince him to try again. “He said, ‘Hey, you don’t stop. You take what you built. You take what you learned, you take what you know you can do and do better, and you put it to work, and you win the next one,’” Busse recounted at an April candidate forum in Missoula.  Busse positions himself as a fighter who’s willing to play hardball with party bosses who stand in the way of progressive policies, just as he was willing to sacrifice his reputation in the firearms industry for the sake of his opposition to the National Rifle Association and advocacy for the environment, as detailed in “Gunfight.”  “I can tell you, it wasn’t too long after I was here that the place literally changed me,” he said. “I fought against industrialization in the Badger-Two Med. When I did that, my job was threatened almost every day. I have personal skin in the game for this place, and have for over 25 years.” Ryan Busse, a Democratic candidate for U.S. House representing Montana’s Western Congressional District, talks about his background and policy stances during the 48th annual Mansfield Metcalf Dinner on March 7, 2026, in Helena. Credit: Lauren Miller, Montana Free Press, CatchLight Local/Report for America National Democrats have told voters the “house is on fire” only to “go back inside the house and have a drink,” Busse said.  “We say there’s health care problems, and have Democrats done enough to fix those health care problems? Absolutely not,” he told MTFP. “And I’m not saying that the many horrific policies of Donald Trump — damaging policies, economic, moral, criminal, murderous — I’m not justifying those. What I’m saying is Democrats’ inability to deliver big things and convince people that they mean it has partially led to that.” He says he admires politicians who are willing to shake things up. Asked at a forum if there are any current federal politicians he looks to as potential models, he pointed to Democratic Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth and, more surprisingly, former Republican Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, once a shining light of the MAGA movement who resigned her seat in January after criticizing Trump for his support of Israel and his administration’s slow-walking of the release of Epstein files. “She didn’t play by the rules,” Busse said. “When she went to Washington, D.C., she was told she had to move slowly, do this thing, do that thing, act like nothing was important. You know, sit there. She didn’t do any of that.” Busse’s campaign also has a more practical pitch: Of the four candidates, he’s likely the best known (and thus, he says, most capable of winning in November). His campaign has shared a poll that showed him running 15 points ahead of the rest of the Democratic field in the upcoming primary. Busse attributes that lead in part to groundwork he laid in his 2024 campaign for governor. “It feels good to drive around town and see our old stickers and then see our new stickers on the next car,” he said.  So that tells me we got a lot of residual support. We’re proud of that. We did 187 in-person events on that campaign, and we were in people’s houses, in the breweries, and all over. That stuff matters.” RUSSELL CLEVELAND Key quote: “We are going increasingly more red. There’s no one supporting veterans, small business, health care, child care, any of these things, all things that I have some experience with, right? So no one asked me to run. I just decided to talk to my family about it. I said, ‘Hey, I think I can actually, truly represent the average Montanan.’” Age: 41  Residence: St. Regis Montana roots: Born in the Bitterroot Valley, where his family ranched. Moved back to the state after his daughter’s death in 2020. Professional background: Ranched, served in the U.S. Navy, worked in finance, and founded a childcare company in Colorado called Rocky Mountain Kids. Key endorsements: Progressive group Indivisible Missoula, state Sen. Susan Webber, “Hunger Games” star Josh Hutcherson, country music singer Bryan Andrews.  Notes: Played football at Montana Tech under legendary coach Bob Green. Cleveland was a virtual unknown when he became the first candidate to announce for the Democratic primary more than a year ago. He’s criss-crossed the district from his home in deep-red Mineral County numerous times since, and he says enthusiasm is growing. At candidate forums in Missoula and Butte, Cleveland, a self-described “independent progressive Democrat,” seemed to generate the loudest applause of all the candidates.  Like many Montana politicians, Cleveland is a veteran. While he doesn’t shy away from that identity, he says he’s running on more than his record of service. Cleveland joined the military as a young man wrapped up in post-9/11 fervor (“recruiters are good at their job,” he said). One thing the military gave him, he says, is an example of government helping people improve their station.  “It was the thing that allowed me to be successful in so many other areas. The only way I was able to start my path to success was the GI Bill, which allowed me to go to school for free, and a VA loan, which allowed me to buy a house without 20% down. Those two things were transformational, but they’re also part of the reason I’m like, we need education reform for students to be able to pursue higher education without lifelong student debt, right? We need housing and lending reform.”  What Cleveland foregrounds over his military record is his experience with the health care industry during the illness and eventual death of his daughter, Madison, from leukemia in 2020. It was that loss that prompted his move the following year from Colorado, where Cleveland had worked in finance before starting a childcare company called Rocky Mountain Kids, to his home state of Montana, where he bought a ranch in St. Regis and named it for his daughter. He sold the childcare company to another provider in 2024. The story — and his support for universal health care, a position he shares with Busse — is central to his campaign. The pain of seeing his daughter suffer coupled with “the anger of watching politicians slash critical funding for medical research in the pursuit of more tax breaks for billionaires” drove Cleveland toward politics, he says on his campaign website. Russell Cleveland, a Democratic candidate for U.S. House representing Montana’s Western Congressional District, discusses his background and policy stances during the 48th annual Mansfield Metcalf Dinner on March 7, 2026, in Helena. Credit: Lauren Miller, Montana Free Press, CatchLight Local/Report for America “The system’s beyond broken,” Cleveland told MTFP. “This isn’t some light switch we can go in there, flip it on, and have it be all better tomorrow. It takes constant effort, knowledge about how and where it’s broken, where it needs to be fixed. And honestly, that personal experience for me is what keeps me going every day, knowing that there’s some family in the hospital room right now trying to figure this out as we’re sitting here.”  Cleveland says doctors and patients alike are ready for dramatic change in how health care is administered, especially in rural communities where accessing care can already be a struggle.  “I met with the executive director of Madison Valley Medical Clinic, and he’s like, ‘Look, you and I will probably disagree on a lot of things, but the one thing I know we can agree on is that Medicare for All is the right thing to do,’ because that’s the best payer for their community, right?” Cleveland said.  Speaking to voters at a recent Democratic candidate forum in Missoula, Cleveland said he has feet in two worlds: the state’s conservative ranching communities and the progressive Democratic circles of western Montana. “And so my ask of you tonight is to think about November. June is not that far away, but we need someone who can connect with the rural communities, who can bring progressives and Democrats and independents and moderate conservatives together to actually create real change and to get us out of this dark moment that we’re in.”  SAM FORSTAG Key quote: “Last year, a majority of people making under 100,000 bucks a year did not vote for Democrats. Last year, about half of union members in this state did not vote for a Democrat. Last year, a whole lot of young people in this state, the sort of young people who got Jon Tester elected in 2018 with record-high youth turnout, they stayed home or swung to the right. Those are all the folks that we need to win back urgently right now. All of those people are me.” Age: 31 Residence: Missoula Montana roots: Born and raised in Ohio, moved to Missoula to attend the University of Montana in 2012, has lived and worked in western Montana since.  Professional background: Smokejumper, former organizer with Forest Service Council of the National Federation of Federal Employees, Local 60; former lobbyist for American Civil Liberties Union of Montana and other clients.  Key endorsements: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Montana AFL-CIO, former Montana House Minority Leader Kim Abbott, D-Helena, former state Rep. Geraldine Custer, R-Forsyth Notes: Served in college as president of the Associated Students of the University of Montana — a distinction he shares with Republican Western District House candidate Aaron Flint. A year ago, Sam Forstag, then vice president of his local federal employees’ union, appeared alongside progressive luminaries Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in front of thousands of Missoulians and excoriated Elon Musk’s DOGE for cuts the quasi agency was making to federal agencies like the Forest Service.  “What we’re facing today is greed burning out of control,” Forstag said. “So, when they come after unions, we won’t back down — we’ll organize. And when they try to scare civil servants who break their backs for this country into silence, we’ll keep speaking up because we know we’re not alone.” A year later, Forstag — who held on to his job during the cuts but left federal employment in January to run for office — is bringing much the same message to western Montana voters. Forstag’s identification as working-class is key to his campaign. He was raised mostly by his mother, an ICU nurse, and worked multiple jobs to put himself through college, he said. Unlike some other candidates in the race, he’s said, he’s not a millionaire, and if he doesn’t go to Congress he’ll be looking for a job once more.  “I know what it is like to be watching my union members be fired even when they’re making 14 bucks an hour maintaining our public lands,” he said at an April candidate forum in Missoula. He says the crises of the moment — housing and health care insecurity, declining trust in elected officials and disillusionment with Democrats — mean the time is ripe for a working-class progressive to win in Montana and help usher in change. The country has the money for bold social and economic reforms, which will no doubt be expensive, he said — it’s just currently being spent on bombs, border enforcement and tax cuts. Forstag is banking on voters on both sides of the aisle recognizing their own insecurity in Forstag’s message and voting for change.  Sam Forstag, a 2026 Democratic primary candidate for Montana’s Western Congressional District, responds to a question during a debate at the Mother Lode Theater in Butte on Mar. 10, 2026. Credit: Lauren Miller, Montana Free Press, CatchLight Local/Report for America Forstag is also a shrewd political operator. When he wasn’t fighting fire, he has worked for a variety of progressive organizations and lobbying clients at the state Capitol, including the ACLU, a coalition of homeless shelters, the city of Missoula and more. In that time, he found himself frequently working with legislative-majority Republicans — including some lawmakers whose campaigns he has donated to — on issues like criminal justice reform.   He’s been endorsed by not only Bernie Sanders and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, but also the longest list among the four primary candidates of current and former state legislators. Forstag’s legislative endorsers include four Republicans, all moderates who were effectively forced out of the party by the GOP’s rising right flank. Union advocate and former organizer that he is, he’s also endorsed by the Montana AFL-CIO, which is helmed by former Republican lawmaker Jason Small.  “You don’t get a criminal justice reform bill done if you’re not talking to Janee over in Circle, who knows what it’s like to have a family member tied up in the carceral system, and despite the fact that Janee and I disagree on 60 or 70% of issues, well, she has a big network of people who are capable of talking to folks who, better or worse, are in the position of power in our Republican super-majority,” he said. “That is a fundamentally different experience than I think you see from any other candidate.” Such appeals to pragmatism show in his platform. While Busse and Cleveland have both called for universal health care coverage, Forstag has more specifically called to expand subsidies and provide free health care for all “working-class” people by making sure that “every person, regardless of age, has the option to buy into the part of our system that actually works, into Medicare, and we plug up the holes like vision, and dental and hearing, because that is real comprehensive health care coverage.”  That approach, he said, prevents Republicans from criticizing Democrats for taking away choice, as they might do in a scenario advocating universal public health care. Instead, he’s trying to convince voters of both parties to support “big, bold policy changes that are clear and comprehensible and that are going to be executed and delivered in comprehensible timelines.” Other candidates have tried to make an issue out of his political connections. At an April event in Helena, Cleveland suggested that Forstag’s union support would compromise his opposition to data centers, even as Forstag has called for state and federal regulation of the facilities and oversight of artificial intelligence technology. (The criticism also serves as an interesting indicator of the state of the Montana Democratic Party, which has long historical ties to organized labor that may be in flux as unions look outside of the party for candidates to endorse and as Democratic candidates reconceptualize their coalitions).   “We have to be careful about who we hitch our wagon to,” Cleveland said at the time. In response, Forstag didn’t hesitate to hit back.  “We got folks on this stage, someone who’s worth $25 million, coming after the only working-class candidate in this race for support from labor unions. We should be outraged,” Forstag said. MATT RAINS Key quote: “I was kind of joking that unless you’re Native American or a French fur trapper, you’re not gonna have roots deeper than me.” Age: 46 Residence: Simms (which isn’t in the Western District; congresspeople aren’t required to live in the district they represent).  Montana roots: Fourth-generation Montana rancher who lives on property he inherited from his father.  Professional background: West Point grad, Army veteran, rancher, conflict zone photojournalist, former chief of staff for Montana Farmers Union. Key endorsements: Ranchers Jenny Kahrl and Chuck Merja.  Notes: Ran for Congress in 2019 and for the state Legislature in 2020, both times without success. Recent election results might lead one to believe that voters don’t really care about born-in-Montana authenticity. Almost every statewide or federal elected official in Montana was born somewhere else. Ryan Zinke, Steve Daines, Greg Gianforte, Matt Rosendale, Tim Sheehy and other Republicans have been routinely blasted by Democratic opponents for being inadequately Montanan, and all won easily. Jon Tester, perhaps as stereotypical a Montana farmer as was ever seen in the halls of the U.S. Senate, lost to a Minnesotan who grew up in a lake house.  Rains, however, contends that voters still want one of their own. That means talking up his Montana roots — four generations going back to the late 19th century — and touting his moderate politics.  “I think we’re going to see a pivot to people looking for a new option, but this is still Montana, right?” he said in an interview with MTFP. “It’s still a red district in a red state. And so that option has to be authentic. You just can’t throw anybody with a ‘Democrat’ [next to their name] and think that this will work, right? They will only pivot for the right person.”  Matt Rains, a Democratic candidate for U.S. House representing Montana’s Western Congressional District, discusses his background and policy stances during the 48th annual Mansfield Metcalf Dinner on March 7, 2026, in Helena. Credit: Lauren Miller, Montana Free Press, CatchLight Local/Report for America Winning over Republican voters in a general election means running a candidate who can talk livestock genetics and comprehend the plight of rural health care, Rains said.  Ideologically, Rains is the primary’s odd man out. While the other candidates have committed to not taking PAC money, Rains has said a well-funded campaign will need donations from a variety of sources, including PACs. When the others go hard against Israel — particularly Cleveland, who has been the most aggressive of the four in labeling Israel’s violence in Gaza as  “genocide” — Rains says the years he spent as a photographer and serviceman in the Middle East showed him Israel’s value as an ally. When the other candidates have unloaded on data centers, Rains has called for better transparency about energy and water use and economic benefits while acknowledging the facilities’ importance to the building trades.  “You go to a gun range, right, and you get your markers out. Your extremes, they’re there, they’re useful, but the focus needs to be down the middle,” he told MTFP. “That’s where the targets, the priorities, are. And so we have so many issues going on right now that the more that we’re worried about the boundaries, the more we’re not getting anything done.”  “Probably most of the people in this room are not going to love my next question,” University of Montana journalism professor Lee Banville told the crowd at the candidate forum he moderated in Missoula earlier this month. The awkward silence that followed suggested he was right. “So the last decade has not been great for Democrats. The Democrats won a reelection for governor in 2016 and a Senate race in 2018 and lost every other statewide and federal election in the state. What are the lessons you’ve learned from those experiences?” That’s the ultimate question the Western District’s four Democrats are called to answer. Because a primary victory won’t mean much without a win in November.  For Busse, Democrats have for too long been afraid to push for the kind of bold policies they say the country needs. He knows what it’s like to lose as a Democrat, he said, and now he thinks he can win.  For Cleveland, it’s about independence. “I’m not beholden to the Democratic Party,” he said in Missoula. “What we have right now is people putting the party before the needs of everyday people.”  For Forstag, the fact that some of his buddies on the fire line have voted for Trump is evidence of the Democratic Party’s failed promises. The party doesn’t need to tack right, he said, it needs policies that speak to unions and working-class voters.  For Rains, the key is speaking the language of rural and generally conservative voters while emphasizing the historic role of Democrats in shaping labor protections and rural co-ops. “What you can do as a rancher is sit down with other farmers and ranchers who run these rural communities that have turned completely red, and start having these conversations,” he said.  Within each of these answers is a potential path to victory. But Democratic candidates will have to do more than critique the Democratic Party to turn the western seat blue — Republicans are more than willing to reap the rewards of that work. Democrats will have to make an affirmative case for themselves and their policies. And they’ll have to convince their fellow Democrats that they’re the best candidate to seize the very particular political opportunity afforded by an unexpectedly open seat in a dicey midterm election — an opportunity that doesn’t come around every two years.  The post Four brands of Democrat make their case in Montana’s western congressional primary appeared first on Montana Free Press. ...read more read less