Hillsborough County commissioners scrutinized a complex financial framework for the proposed $2.3 billion Tampa Bay Rays stadium district, raising deep concerns over a budget shortfall, the use of disaster relief funds, and the validity of an independent economic report.Watch report from Jada Williams Hillsborough Co. commissioners scrutinize budget shortfall for Rays stadiumDuring a lengthy workshop, county staff and independent analysts presented the financial realities of the 130-acre development, which includes a 31,000-seat ballpark, residential, commercial, and entertainment spaces.Chief Financial Administrator Tom Fessler outlined the county's efforts to meet the Rays' revised public funding request of $1.001 billion, split between $750 million from the county and $251 million from the city of Tampa. Fessler noted the county is currently $75 million short of its goal.Fessler detailed a significant budget shortfall complicating the negotiations. He explained that the fiscal year 2027 budget expects the lowest property tax growth in over 10 years. Additionally, recent state legislative changes eliminated the sales tax on commercial leases, which will reduce the county's Community Investment Tax revenues by $12 million to $15 million annually.Because of the softening economy and revenue hits, Fessler said the county cannot accept the Rays' assumption that the Community Investment Tax will grow at 4 percent annually to generate $600 million for the project. The county proposed a 3.7 percent growth rate instead. Fessler explained that agreeing to the 4 percent rate would classify the funding as a private investment, forcing the county to issue taxable bonds and resulting in a loss of $100 million in bond proceeds.To help close the funding gap, the county evaluated its unrestricted reserves."We looked in the couch cushions to see where he could find some revenue," Fessler said.Fessler explained the county could potentially access $132 million in cash from current reserves, though it would reduce budget flexibility.The county is also considering using $30 million in Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery funds. Staff explained these funds were allocated following the 2024 hurricane season because the Drew Park area flooded. The improvements would benefit both the stadium site and the surrounding neighborhood, but the reallocation would require approval from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.The validity of an independent economic analysis presented by AECOM analyst Dylan Gilman also faced intense scrutiny. Gilman projected $2.8 billion in gross tax collections over a 30-year period, but admitted the analysis required significant assumptions because the Rays did not provide detailed site plans.Commissioners grilled Gilman on several discrepancies. The AECOM report assumed the development would feature 100 percent market-rate apartments, despite the Rays publicly promising affordable housing. Gilman confirmed that introducing affordable housing would negatively impact the project's taxability.Gilman also acknowledged a last-minute revision to the report due to a formula error that accidentally double-counted $110 million in a proposed Community Development District fee. Furthermore, the independent analysis reduced the team's initial projection of $6.05 billion in new taxable revenue down to $2.8 billion.Following the presentations, commissioners voiced a wide range of concerns.Commissioner Christine Miller questioned a $20 billion gap between the economic impact study presented by the Rays and the independent AECOM study. Gilman explained the difference stems from the use of different economic multipliers, noting the Rays used RIMS II multipliers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, while AECOM used a private service known as Lightcast.Miller also asked Florida Department of Transportation District 7 Secretary Josh Hall about the state's commitment to alleviating traffic around the site.Hall confirmed the state has programmed several projects, including pedestrian bridges and intersection improvements, to address capacity concerns."These are additional funds that were brought in from the outside, so they're not taking away from anything locally," Hall said.Commissioner Donna Cameron Cepeda strongly opposed placing any financial burden on taxpayers and highlighted the horrific traffic issues already plaguing Dale Mabry Highway. Cameron Cepeda noted the $30 million in state funds appear focused on pedestrian improvements rather than adding lanes to alleviate vehicle congestion."I do not want to see any burden being put on the taxpayers," Cameron Cepeda said.Commissioner Harry Cohen asked for clarification on the $30 million in disaster relief funds and confirmed that the Community Investment Tax funds considered for the stadium are over and above the 3 percent growth already planned for promised public projects like transportation and fire stations. Cohen stressed the importance of transparent community benefits agreements, value engineering the $2.3 billion stadium, and protecting the busy tax collector's office currently operating on the site.Commissioner Chris Boles focused on the risk-reward balance of the massive investment. Boles demanded that the project generate durable, long-term fiscal returns rather than relying on "black box" economic assumptions. Boles emphasized that the county needs real, usable revenue to operate core priorities like fire stations."I'm still skeptical and still cautious about how I'm going to proceed," Boles said.Other commissioners raised concerns that the community's return on investment could take 30 years to become net neutral. Concerns were also raised about potential parking nightmares in West Tampa neighborhoods and the historical financial impact of the Tampa Sports Authority, which previously lost nearly $33 million in property taxes over 25 years to fund operations at the Buccaneers stadium.Board Chair Ken Hagan highlighted the project's generational potential. Hagan compared the Drew Park Community Redevelopment Area, which generated $28 million over 22 years, to the stadium project, which is projected to generate $907 million in property taxes over 30 years. Hagan urged staff to continue negotiating to resolve the outstanding issues.County staff emphasized that negotiations are ongoing, no commitments have been made, and a Memorandum of Understanding is not yet ready for approval. ...read more read less