MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - MARCH 28: Dylan Harper #2 of the San Antonio Spurs dribbles the ball against Ousmane Dieng #21 of the Milwaukee Bucks during the third quarter at Fiserv Forum on March 28, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloa ding and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) | Getty Images The NBA Rookie of the Year award can be a good indicator of future success, but it doesn’t always mean the player who won it will go on to have the best career of his class, nor does it mean the ones who didn’t win it can’t be just as successful. This year, the NBA’s top candidates are Kon Knueppel and Cooper Flagg, and both of them are special players with high ceilings. Still, the San Antonio Spurs made the made the right pick by selecting Dylan Harper at 2nd overall (sorry, Kevin O’Connor), and here’s why. There are 19 NBA rookies playing at least 20 minutes per game in the 2025-26 season, and only three are logging at least 30 mpg (minimum 55 games played): Flagg, Knueppel, and VJ Edgecomb. All three have been mostly starers for their teams, while Harper is 12th among rookies in minutes at 22.3 per game with just two starts, meaning he doesn’t have as strong of a case for ROY as his fellow top four picks. Still, any rookie who has made himself a rotation player has done a good job, especially when they earn that spot on a quality team like the Spurs.  Keep in mind that only three Spurs rookies have averaged 30 minutes since 1988-89: Tim Duncan, David Robinson and Willie Anderson. A lot of that has to do with how stacked many Spurs teams have been over the years, but it’s also not their motto to put too much on rookies’ plates, especially the younger ones. While the three Spurs above all entered the league aged 21 or older and started from day 1, Harper plays mostly with the second unit. Yet notably, the five-man unit with Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama is one of their best. That rotation is their 12th most-used this season, but part of the reason for its success is having added versatility with multiple ball handlers. The other is the sharp perimeter defense that buys Wemby the extra second to get where he wants.  Harper is a smart shot creator, averaging a 2.76 assist-to-turnover ratio: the best among rookies.  Most of his passes and assists have gone to Johnson, who also passes him the ball the most.  To boot, Harper is one of three rookies to score in double figures with a minimum 54.0 effective field goal percentage, and on the Spurs, he generates the third most 3-pointers (5.4) for his teammates after Castle and De’Aaron Fox. Harper was never going to make as much noise as many 2nd overall picks do because of his role, but take out that bit of context, and what he’s done matters a lot to a team that has turned into a championship contender at least a year earlier than expected. Despite being a rookie, he’s someone coach Mitch Johnson can count on in big games and is a big part of why the team has a top-eight scoring bench. His rookie campaign may not be as glamourous as Flagg or Knueppel’s, but it’s still rare for a rookie to garner that much trust so early in their careers. It’s always difficult to get a read on how award voters will lean, but while it’s probably safe to assume Harper won’t win Rookie of the Year, he at least deserves to be on one of the All-Rookie teams. He’s quick, strong and shifty with the ball, and while he has only started twice this year against two low-level opponents, the Spurs offense didn’t miss a beat in his minutes. He is in the top five among rookies in points in the paint and fastbreak points, but most importantly, he’s doing all this for a team that’s on the hunt for the league’s best record. Other rookies can put up similar numbers with no pressure since their team is going nowhere or their role is not in jeopardy, but Harper is under pressure to produce, because if he doesn’t, the Spurs can simply turn to Fox or Castle for more minutes. If Harper has one weakness, it’s his 3-point shooting. Almost all of his attempts are open to wide-open, making league average efficiency with 4-6 feet of space, but only 31.2 percent with six feet or more space. Spurs fans should not worry about this being a long term problem because he works hard, and Chip Engelland’s secret sauce has been closely replicated by the team.  For now, he can focus on becoming a screener after a handoff if opponents scheme him out by daring him to shoot, which will help him rack up assists and is a good counter by attacking the space. There’s only seven games left in the regular season, so it is doubtful anyone will learn anything new from the crop of youngsters at this point. But we so know who Rookie Harper, and he’s earned himself an A- on my scale. The scary thing for the rest of the league is he has much more room to grow. ...read more read less