The ads for an online survey targeting transgender youth and their parents seem innocuous at first.“Navigating gender dysphoria?” asks one of many ads that have cropped up on social media in recent months. “Tell your story, challenge preconceptions, and have YOUR experience reflected in the sc ience.”The ads are for a survey helmed by Northwestern University psychology professor J. Michael Bailey, who told the Sun-Times he aims to find out “how gender dysphoric youth live their lives.”But the study has already garnered controversy. Parents of and advocates for trans youth are warning against participating in the research, claiming that Bailey has an agenda and could harm the community.“Many parents and trans people are plugged into these communities and heard the warning,” said Shaun, whose daughter is trans and asked to be referred to by his first name for privacy and safety reasons.The warnings have taken on new urgency as elected leaders across the country, including in Illinois, have introduced legislation attempting to strip access to health care for trans people. Some of that legislation cites discredited scientific studies that Bailey and his co-researchers have published over the years, and critics say his current study could continue to fuel efforts to push trans people to the margins.“[Trans people] go in with the idea they can help other trans people by taking part in this research,” said Corey Lascano, a board member with Trans Up Front, a statewide trans youth advocacy organization. “But in reality their experiences will be warped into this problem that can be ‘solved’ with things that have already been documented as being harmful.” Corey Lascano, a board member with Trans Up Front IL and the LGBTQIA+ cochair for the Chicago Teacher’s Union, at Chopin Park in Portage Park, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026.Anthony Vazquez/Sun-Times Recruitment issuesThe Adolescent and Young Adult Gender Dysphoria Outcomes Study, or AYAGDOS, aims to survey 1,500 parents and 500 gender dysphoric youth over the course of at least five years.Launched in 2024 with backing from Northwestern and the nonprofit Gender Dysphoria Institute, Bailey and his co-researchers hope to estimate how many dysphoric youth end up transitioning, as well as how family response impacts their transition.“Is gender transition associated with long term happiness?” the study’s site asks.Nearly two years in, the ongoing study has recruited fewer than 100 children and 500 parents. Most of the parents who signed up for the study say they are skeptical of their child’s identity, Bailey said. Disapproving parents are easier to recruit, he explained, and were sourced on websites where “critical” parents congregate.The researchers hoped offering payment to families would attract more diverse subjects, but they couldn’t secure the funding, Bailey said. Referrals and social media ads haven’t boosted recruitment significantly either.But Bailey argued that results shouldn’t be discounted even if respondents' views skew one way. They still represent lived experiences that shouldn’t be ignored.“We will have to address that,” Bailey said, referring to recruitment issues. “[Excluding them] would be ridiculous. As scientists, we will have to say that’s a limitation and think about how that distorts our results.”But Lascano, citing Bailey’s background, believes the study was “intentionally designed” to capture a specific picture of trans youth from disapproving parents while “spinning” the experiences of actual trans people.“They're trying to sell it as another dive into gender dysphoria,” Lascano said. “But we see the way data has been used in the past.”A history of controversyBailey and his co-researchers have courted controversy before, with some of their work on gender identity facing criticism, correction and retraction from scientific publications.Bailey’s 2003 book, “The Man Who Would Become Queen: The Science of Gender-Bending and Transsexualism,” touted Canadian researcher Ray Blanchard’s widely panned theory that put trans women into two categories: extremely feminine gay men, and sexual fetishists for whom he coined the term “autogynephiles,” or those who are “erotically obsessed with the image of themselves as women.”Northwestern investigated Bailey after trans subjects of his said he didn’t tell them they would be included.Bailey said Northwestern didn’t discipline him, but he stepped down as head of the psychology department in the wake of the investigation.The university didn’t respond to a request for comment about the new research or the investigation into Bailey. Northwestern University’s Swift Hall at 2021 Sheridan Rd. in Evanston, Thursday, March 26, 2026.Ashlee Rezin/Sun-Times Lisa Littman, one of Bailey’s co-investigators, serves as president of the Gender Dysphoria Institute, where Bailey also serves as treasurer. In its position statement, the organization aims to push back on the silencing of “science and proper research” into gender dysphoria that would otherwise be labeled transphobic.In a 2018 study published in the journal PLOS One, Littman surveyed parents from “skeptic” sites to develop her theory of “rapid onset gender dysphoria,” or ROGD. It attempted to explain some trans youth as having picked up their identity from their peers.The survey was later republished with a correction that said no youth or clinicians were surveyed and that parents’ reports on their children may not be accurate, and thus “does not validate the phenomenon.”In an emailed statement, Littman said the evidence for ROGD was “early but growing.”Leiszle Rae Lapping-Carr, a practicing psychologist at Northwestern Medicine and professor at Northwestern, said ROGD has “very little empirical support” and that many studies on it have been criticized for relying solely on parental reports. She said kids may not always share their feelings with parents depending on their perceived support.“As [dysphoria] develops during puberty, it may seem sudden or rapid from the outside, but for the people experiencing it, it’s a natural progression,” Lapping-Carr said. “But [ROGD] has still been taken up to provide evidence for reduction in access to health care for trans folks.” Related Illinois joins suit after feds threaten billions in funding over Trump order targeting trans people — again Illinois joins lawsuit against White House’s attempted national ban on youth gender-affirming care But ROGD continues to be of key interest to the researchers. In 2023, Bailey published a paper about ROGD in the journal Archives of Sexual Behavior based on data he said he received from a member of ParentsofROGDKids.com, which describes being trans as an “epidemic” among youth.The journal retracted it less than 3 months later, with the editor-in-chief, Kenneth Zucker, and the publisher noting that the study's authors failed to get consent from survey subjects to share their information. They also noted that the authors didn't have approval from an Institutional Review Board, which monitors the ethics of human subject research. Bailey said in an interview with the Sun-Times that he thought those were "bogus reasons" for the retraction.Zucker, also a co-researcher on AYAGDOS, weathered calls for his resignation in the wake of the study's publication. He had previously seen his youth practice close in 2015 following accusations it was conducting a form of conversion therapy. The Toronto-based Centre for Addiction and Mental Health later settled with him in court. He argued that at the time he aimed to “reduce gender dysphoria” by reinforcing dysphoric youths’ assigned gender at birth. He did not respond to multiple requests for comment.And though AYAGDOS doesn’t mention ROGD by name, the study asks if an increase in trans children could “reflect a new type of gender dysphoria caused by peers influencing each other to adopt transgender identities.”Other studies have also discredited the theory. A group of 62 major health care organizations, including the American Psychological Association and Howard Brown Health, signed a letter in 2021 supporting "eliminating the use of ROGD … given the lack of empirical support for its existence and its likelihood of contributing to harm.” It said many of the hundreds of anti-trans bills filed that year were “predicated on the unsupported claims advanced by ROGD.”Because of their past research, the researchers’ efforts have struggled, even as other, similar research is moving forward.Shaun said "no amount of money" would offset the cost of participating in AYAGDOS after looking into the researchers’ history. He expects they will “replicate the issues they had with their past research.”“You’re not going to get parents who are nuanced and understanding [to participate],” he said. “You’re going to get people who are reactionary.”At the same time, he said his teen daughter has participated in a similar five-year study on the well-being of trans kids through her healthcare provider since she started receiving gender affirming care nearly four years ago.Her care team connected her with researchers conducting that study before she filed her first prescription. While it was his daughter’s choice to participate, he said it comforted him that her providers made the introduction.His daughter also gets a $100 gift card for each nearly three-hour long survey she completes, which he said asks questions about her mental and emotional wellbeing.‘I don’t know what I would change’Bailey denied having an ideological motive and also denied taking sides in what he called the “culture war.”“The project is better with my participation,” Bailey said in response to concerns of his involvement with the ongoing study. “I can’t go back in time, and if I did, I don’t know what I would change.”He also said that, though they haven’t turned down any money, he and his co-researchers would not accept “ideological pre-conditioning for funding.” From Arthur Brooks in The Free Press, reminding gender critical intellectuals (transgender activists are beyond reminding): pic.twitter.com/BaK1vB1O5L— Michael Bailey (@profjmb) January 20, 2026 Still, he said he’s concerned “there’s been too much medical transition with too few safeguards.”In a January post on X, Bailey called himself a “scholarly ally” of the “gender-critical” movement, or those who believe sex assigned at birth is immutable. In 2024, he wrote, “Of course we’d prefer our sons to have normal sexuality.” That was months after he was called as an expert witness by the state of Missouri in its defense of a law banning gender-affirming care for trans youths.A bill filed by Illinois state Sen. Andrew Chesney last year and again this month that would outlaw gender-affirming care for minors quoted Zucker and cited Bailey’s retracted study and Littman’s corrected publication on ROGD. Arkansas also used Littman’s paper to defend its ban on gender-affirming care for trans youths. It remains in committee.And Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. said the American Medical Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics had “peddled a lie” in a November HHS report that relied on all three AYAGDOS researchers. The report also said dysphoria is “not pathological and does not require treatment.”An edict from Kennedy based on that report, which had threatened to cut off federal Medicaid and Medicare funding from hospitals that provide the care, was struck down by a judge earlier this month.“We will find what we find,” Bailey said regarding possible future legislation. “And if somebody thinks our results are relevant to some proposed policy, if we can inform that, we will do it.”That's what worries Lascano, who said the new study could be used to support such policies. She hopes Northwestern revamps its review process, saying university officials should have already intervened “to prevent harm.”“The fact this was approved shows there is something lacking in that team at Northwestern,” Lascano said.Shaun, the parent, said he was angry seeing people “scoring political points on behalf of my kid’s life.”“There’s very little they could do to improve their study if they start with thinking their study subjects shouldn't exist,” he said. Related Feds agree to halt proposed national youth gender care ban while court weighs motion On Trans Day of Remembrance, community reflects on those lost: ‘We’re gonna be here forever’ ...read more read less