Can Nikola Jokic and Serbia make a run at gold in Los Angeles Olympics? A waytooearly look toward 2028
Mar 01, 2026
My Olympic fever hasn’t worn off yet.
Especially after watching hockey’s biggest best-on-best international tournament in years. It was some of the most phenomenal theater to come out of the 2026 Milan/Cortina Olympics — NHL stars competing for their national teams in a stirring tournament tha
t peaked with overtime in the gold medal game.
It got me thinking about 2028, admittedly. About all the NBA stars set to converge in Los Angeles at the next Summer Olympics. Momentum is at an all-time high for international basketball after the Paris Games in 2024. Team USA defended its crown, but the world showed how much the gap has closed. Arguably, the five best players on the planet right now are all international.
So forgive me for indulging in a bit of heavy speculation this week. I took a crack at ranking the best national teams by what they might look like in 2028, using FIBA’s qualification system to guess the 12 squads that might make the tournament at Intuit Dome. (There must be at least two teams from the Americas, two from Europe, one from Asia, one from Africa and one from Oceania.) Will it be a revenge tour for Nikola Jokic or Jamal Murray?
Anthony Edwards of Team USA reacts after a dunk during the men's gold medal game between Team France and Team United States at the Paris Summer Olympics at Bercy Arena on Aug. 10, 2024 in Paris, France. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
1. USA
Sure, the world is catching up. But spend 10 minutes trying to piece together who Team USA’s 12 should be for the next Olympics and you’ll still give yourself a headache. What’s clear is that a changing of the guard is in store, with the apparent exception of international basketball’s GOAT, Kevin Durant. My best stab at a starting lineup right now includes two guys who haven’t even played this year: Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Edwards, Cooper Flagg, Jayson Tatum and Chet Holmgren. That gives you defensive credibility at two through five, scoring punch from different spots on the floor and an elite table-setter whose recent Indiana heroics shouldn’t be forgotten just because other American guards have demanded the spotlight during his Achilles rehab.
About those guards: Is there room for Haliburton, Edwards, Cade Cunningham, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, Tyrese Maxey and Jalen Brunson on this roster? What about the burgeoning Kon Knueppel? Team USA needs glue guys and size to compete with certain European frontcourts. Bam Adebayo and Joel Embiid are the incumbent bigs, but I can be convinced that Evan Mobley and/or Jalen Duren will be ready to replace them by 2028, in addition to Holmgren. This remains the only national team that will have star NBA players miss the cut based on merit.
2. Canada
The Canadians were supposed to be Team USA’s most dangerous challenger in Paris. Instead, they crashed and burned before the medal round, never giving themselves a chance to face off against their neighbors. On paper, Canada still looks just as good, if not better, for 2028. How many MVP trophies will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander own by then? He turns 30 two days before the opening ceremony. Jamal Murray will be 31. Andrew Nembhard, Benedict Mathurin and Shaedon Sharpe could be the most talented bench trio in the tournament outside of Team USA. RJ Barrett and Dillon Brooks, who are having a career year in Phoenix right now, should still be solid on the wings. But will the roster have a legit center this time? Zach Edey’s health might be the biggest X-factor in the entire field.
Victor Wembanyama of Team France reacts after a play during the men's basketball semifinal between Team France and Team Germany on at the Paris Summer Olympics at Bercy Arena on August 08, 2024 in Paris, France. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
3. France
Canada and France provided a compelling battle of juxtaposing strengths and weaknesses when they met in the 2024 quarterfinals. The bigger team won. Since then, the canyon between France’s frontcourt and backcourt talent has seemingly only widened. Wemby has already developed into an MVP candidate and driving force of an NBA title contender. Rudy Gobert’s defensive impact has not yet faded. Alex Sarr entered the league as a No. 2 overall pick and established himself as the Wizards’ starting center. Former second-round draft pick Moussa Diabate broke out this season as Charlotte’s best five-man. Guerschon Yabusele leveraged his success at the Olympics to revive his career and sneak back into the NBA. That’s not to mention a handful of unproven forwards who’ve been lottery picks, including Zaccharie Risacher, Noa Essengue and Tidjane Salaun.
The defending silver medalists should lean into their strength and try every possible double-big combination when they play international exhibitions leading up to Los Angeles. In the meantime, they have two years to figure out who their best guards and wings are, now that the Evan Fournier-Nic Batum generation has aged out. Nolan Traore? Bilal Coulibaly? Pacome Dadiet?
4. Serbia
It feels unfair to rank Serbia this low after nearly knocking off Team USA in the greatest international basketball game ever played. But a few key developmental variables have stalled halfway through the four-year interval between Olympic tournaments.
Nikola Topic, a 6-foot-6 point guard drafted 12th overall in 2024 but left off the Olympic roster that summer, has overcome a torn ACL and testicular cancer just to finally debut in the NBA this month. His progress over the next couple of seasons will be crucial. Nikola Jovic, a Heat wing who came off the bench for Serbia in Paris, has regressed to a 27% outside shooting clip this season. His playing time has taken a dip in Miami. The Hawks recently waived Nikola Djurisic, a recent second-round pick.
Serbia has a perennially healthy pipeline of teenage talent on the way and a solid cast of national team veterans like Aleksa Avramovic and Filip Petrusev, but the point is — at this particular snapshot in time — there are more unknowns than we might have expected two years ago with the youth movement.
Team captain Bogdan Bogdanovic might have one more run in him at Intuit Dome, where he currently plays his home games, but he’ll be turning 36 that summer. His play has already started to decline in the NBA. Jokic will surely tie it all together, but even he might not be the consensus best player in the world anymore by 2028. You can count on this: After experiencing heartbreak and elation in Paris, he will be highly motivated for possibly the last Olympic tournament of his prime.
5. Germany
Dennis Schroder might age in the NBA, but his youth is eternal when he plays by FIBA’s rules. Franz Wagner provides the NBA star power. Isaiah Hartenstein could anchor the starting lineup if he signs on to play. Former CU Buff Tristan da Silva figures to be a big part of Germany’s future.
6. Australia
Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels — the Great Barrier Thief! — form a dangerous guard duo. But can Jock Landale and Rocco Zikarsky hang with some of the world’s best big men?
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of Team Greece dunks the ball during the mens' quarterfinal match between Team Germany and Team Greece on day eleven of the Olympic Games in Paris at Stade Pierre Mauroy on Aug. 06, 2024 in Lille, France. (Photo by Pool/Getty Images)
7. Greece
Giannis Antetokounmpo has never had particularly memorable supporting casts on his national team, but one interesting storyline to watch in the next few months is the commitment of Andrej Stojakovic. His mother is Greek (he was born there). His father is Peja Stojakovic, a former NBA All-Star who played for Rick Adelman in Sacramento. Andrej is eligible to play for Greece or Serbia. Right now, he’s in college at 10th-ranked Illinois, which has become a haven for European prospects.
8. Turkey
Led by Rockets center Alperen “Baby Jokic” Sengun (he’s getting a little tired of the nickname) and former NBA guard Shane Larkin (son of Baseball Hall of Famer Barry), Turkey knocked off Jokic and Serbia last summer at EuroBasket. Larkin will certainly be past his prime in 2028, but Turkey has a bright future with the opportunity to build around Sengun.
9. Slovenia
Here’s hoping Slovenia makes the cut. It’s another country that fell short in 2024. The tournament will be better with Luka Doncic in it, especially in the NBA city he now calls home.
10. Lithuania
After failing to qualify for Paris, this might be the last Olympic cycle for Nuggets backup center Jonas Valanciunas, who will be 36 during the Los Angeles Games. Lithuania reached the quarterfinals of EuroBasket last year, and that was without Bulls wing Matas Buzelis and Heat guard Kasparas Jakucionas.
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11. Japan
Frankly, it would be better for the overall competition if Turkey could count as the team from Asia, and then one of the sleepers listed below would probably make it over Japan. But Turkey is officially categorized as European, despite being geographically located in both continents. That means Japan slips into the field at No. 22 in FIBA rankings.
I mean no disrespect toward Japan’s talent pool, of course. If I can break the fourth wall: One of the best live basketball experiences of my life was my 2024 vacation excursion to Lille, France, to watch the hosts take on Japan in a group stage game. Despite legendary performances by Rui Hachimura and Yuki Kawamura, France won in overtime with help from a rather friendly home whistle. (Hachimura’s ejection for arguing? That game-tying 4-point play call? Come on.) I’m rooting for Japan to get the justice it deserves in LA, if it makes it.
12. South Sudan
With Luol Deng serving as president of the country’s basketball federation, South Sudan has been a slow and steady success story in international hoops, culminating with a near-upset of Team USA in a pre-Olympic 2024 exhibition. (LeBron James played spoiler with a game-winning layup.) Suns rookie center Khaman Maluach, still 19 and drafted 10th last year, is the program’s great developmental hope.
Sleepers: Jamaica, Cameroon, Spain, Argentina, Finland, Puerto Rico
There’s been speculation about whether Amen and Ausar Thompson might seek citizenship in Jamaica, where their dad is from, to play international hoops together. They would join Norman Powell, a compelling foundation. I’ve always thought it would be cool to see Embiid and Pascal Siakam team up for Cameroon in the Olympics, but that would require Embiid choosing to seek a national team change and FIBA allowing it. Spain and Argentina are the highest-ranked teams (according to FIBA) that didn’t appear on this list. And Finland is fresh off a semifinal run at EuroBasket led by Jazz star Lauri Markkanen.
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