With qualifying for Louisiana’s U.S. Senate race set to commence Wednesday, big money and serious surrogates are lining up behind the lead contenders as other candidates who once made up a rather large field continue to drop out. All eyes are focusing on incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy and his main c ompetition, U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow, who has the unmissable support of President Donald Trump.  In her first ever statewide bid for office, Letlow will be aided by the White House, which has already manifested in a $1 million pledge from the MAHA PAC. The outfit primarily supports the policy agenda of U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is no stranger to criticism from Cassidy. Closer to home, lobbyist Alton Ashy is among those helping Letlow organize fundraisers to add to the $2.4 million she previously raised for her House reelection campaign. Ashy also commissioned a survey by pollster Greg Rigamer showing Cassidy losing by 57-22 in a head-to-head against Letlow. Cassidy’s campaign has its own polling from Public Opinion Strategies showing Letlow with a much slimmer six-point lead in a runoff and the incumbent leading comfortably in a primary field and performing much better in a hypothetical runoff when voters are “informed” about each candidate’s experience.    “Every single survey we have taken has shown we still have a double-digit lead in the first round,” counters Mark Harris, the Pennsylvania-based strategist for Cassidy’s campaign. In the coming days Letlow will announce details about the campaign team she has assembled, which will no doubt stay busy this cycle fielding attacks from Cassidy surrogates.  Last week, the Louisiana Freedom Fund, a pro-Cassidy super PAC, launched its first swipe at Letlow with an ad painting her as a liberal who backed the policy agenda of former President Joe Biden, among other accusations.  In response to the ad, Letlow posted that “Bill Cassidy and his Never Trump pro-impeachment allies are attacking me. I’m proud to have earned President Trump’s endorsement and remain focused on delivering on Louisiana priorities.” Cassidy’s team, meanwhile, expects additional support from the National Republican Senatorial Committee. There’s no word yet on participation from the Senate Leadership Fund, though it is aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who came to Baton Rouge last month for a Cassidy event that raised more than $650,000.  There is at least a recent precedent for the SLF pumping resources into a state not generally considered a battleground where the incumbent is out of favor with Trump. SLF is spending tens of millions to save U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, who is trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in most polls while the president sits on the sidelines, though on Sunday Trump told reporters that he was taking a “serious look” at an endorsement.  Back in Louisiana, if Cassidy and Letlow bloody each other up, that could in turn boost Treasurer John Fleming’s candidacy, though the treasurer declined to comment when asked if that was part of his strategy. He says he has run a “targeted” race so far and will wait until the field is officially set after qualifying before his campaign hits the airwaves.  The field has certainly thinned out in recent weeks. Sen. Blake Miguez exited the race to pursue Letlow’s House seat with Trump’s backing. St. Tammany Parish Council member Kathy Seiden has dropped out of the Senate race as well, endorsing Letlow. House Ways and Means Chair Julie Emerson bowed out last month. Fleming argues that he is now the last serious conservative left. As part of his effort to prove it, he is touting higher voting scores than Cassidy and Letlow from the American Conservative Union, Club for Growth, Heritage Action and NumbersUSA. “Both meaningful candidates and those who are on the periphery have been jumping out,” Fleming says. “So it’s clearly a three-person race.” Outside of the big three, the last Republican officeholder left standing who still says they’re running for the Senate seat is Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta. While he has not yet reported any fundraising to the Federal Election Commission, he says he held an event this week. “Still very busy with my current position,” he said by text.  As this game of musical chairs plays out, Cassidy’s campaign will try to use the incumbent’s vast resources to convince voters to take a closer look at his track record. That will include everything from infrastructure funding to his economic policies to his efforts to crack down on the fentanyl scourge.  “There’s this myth that there’s this huge chunk of people who will never vote for Bill Cassidy,” Harris says. “And we’ve had four different surveys from three different pollsters, all of which show that basically two-thirds of voters are willing to vote for Bill.” Qualifying for the May 16 primary will take place this week, Wednesday through Friday. Winter Games How closely are you following the Winter Olympics? Watching daily coverage Watching some coverage Not following it at all Δ     ...read more read less