Wildfire activity across Texas is expected to increase this winter and spring as vegetation dries and becomes highly flammable, the Texas AM Forest Service said Friday. The dormant wildfire season, which occurs during winter and spring, is typically characterized by fire activity in freeze-cured grasses and by increased wind speeds associated with passing dry cold fronts, according to the statement. Above-normal grass growth across much of Texas in 2025 will support increased wildfire potential into early spring 2026. Areas along and west of Interstate 35, including the High Plains, Rolling Plains and Southern Plains, have heavy grass loads that could support large, hard-to-control fires under dry and windy conditions. Other areas like Hill Country and Cross Timbers pose similar risks. However, South Texas and the Lower Gulf Coast remain lower threat until grasses freeze-cure. Texas AM Forest Service wildfire response has trended 136% above normal from October 2025 through mid-January 2026, with agency personnel responding to 434 wildfires that burned 11,425 acres during this period, according to the statement. “Wildfire activity has increased across the state, driven by underlying drought conditions and above-normal grass production from last year’s growing season,” Jared Karns, Texas AM Forest Service Fire Chief, said. “With a La Niña climate pattern forecasted, Texas is expected to experience more conditions that favor wildfire activity more often.” The Climate Prediction Center forecasts a La Niña pattern for early 2026, bringing warmer and drier-than-normal conditions to much of Texas from January through March. These conditions are also expected to increase wildfire risk during the dormant fire season. “These outbreak events have historically resulted in multiple large, high-impact wildfires that can be difficult to contain and are an immediate threat to public and firefighter safety,” said Luke Kanclerz, with the Texas AM Forest Service Predictive Services. Since 2005, wildfires that ignite under Southern Plains Wildfire Outbreak conditions have accounted for only 3% of reported wildfires but 49% of total acres burned. Under these conditions, grasses dry rapidly and become highly flammable, where even a small spark can ignite a wildfire that spreads rapidly. Nine out of 10 wildfires in Texas are caused by people. The Texas AM Forest Service advises Texas residents to stay wildfire aware by avoiding outdoor activities that could spark a wildfire during the expected warm, dry and windy conditions. If a wildfire is spotted, contact local authorities immediately. For information on the current wildfire situation in Texas, visit the Texas AM wildfire status page. TEXAS WILDFIRE MAPS TEXAS WILDFIRES weather Aug 7, 2022 Aerial Attack: What It Takes to Fight Texas Wildfires From the Sky Aug 9, 2022 The Push for a Permanent Air Tanker Base in Texas 2011 TEXAS WILDFIRES In April 2011, during an extreme drought, four out-of-control wildfires burning in close proximity to each other were dubbed The Possum Kingdom Complex Fire. The fires scorched 126,000 acres of parched Texas ranch land and destroyed 168 homes and two churches. Senior Meteorologist David Finfrock said in the NBC 5 docu-series Inside the Storm: Texas Burning, that at that time the period from August 2010 to July 2011 was the driest 12 consecutive months on record. Later that summer, in August, a second fire erupted near the lake called the PK 101 Ranch fire. That fire burned more than 6,000 additional acres on the south side of the lake and destroyed nearly 40 more homes. On Sept. 4, 2011, a massive wildfire erupted in Central Texas. The Bastrop County Complex Fire, east of Austin, became the most destructive wildfire in Texas history. More than 1,600 homes and structures were destroyed when 32,000 acres were scorched, including 96% of the 6,565-acre Bastrop State Park. Two people died in the fires. During that 2011 fire season, the Texas AM Forest Service said more than 31,000 fires burned more than four million acres across the state and destroyed 2,947 homes. ...read more read less