After Baltimore recorded 133 homicides in 2025 – its fewest in nearly 50 years – Marylanders are split on who should be credited for the decline. Gonzales Research Media Services conducted a poll on behalf of the C4 and Bryan Nehman Show on WBAL News Radio. They asked Marylanders who th ey believe deserves more credit for the decrease in Baltimore homicides: Mayor Brandon Scott or City State’s Attorney Ivan Bates? Statewide, Scott narrowly came out on top, with a little over one-third of respondents crediting him with cutting the city’s homicide rate. Meanwhile, 30% said Bates deserves more credit. Another 14% said neither and 20% offered no response at all. The divide was deeper based on respondents’ political affiliation. Among Democrats, almost half credited Scott and one-quarter credited Bates. But when asking Republicans, 43% said Bates deserves more credit, while only 15% said Scott. Independent voters split the difference, with a slight lean toward Scott (31%) compared to Bates (27%). These voters also displayed the highest “no answer” rate, which Gonzales said suggests a “weaker attachment to either narrative.” “The homicide decline may be a shared outcome, but the story people tell about why it happened is deeply shaped by political identity,” Gonzales wrote. Within Baltimore City itself, 47% of residents gave credit to Scott while 37% credited Bates. The Washington suburbs also largely said Scott deserved more credit (45%) than Bates (20%). But Bates was credited more in Baltimore suburbs (36% to Scott’s 29%) and rural parts of Maryland (36% to Scott’s 26%). Broken down by gender, women solidly credited Scott (41% compared to Bates’ 25%), while Bates eked out a slight lead among men (36% compared to Scott’s 30%). Scott’s advantage was strong among Black voters across the state, with 55% of Black respondents saying Scott deserved more credit versus 33% who credited Bates. But within Baltimore City itself, Black voters were nearly evenly split between the two men, “perhaps reflecting a more intimate familiarity with both leaders’ roles,” Gonzales wrote. Statewide, white voters were split almost evenly between Bates (29%) and Scott (28%). Black Baltimore suburbanites were split nearly evenly (43% for Bates and 45% for Scott), while white Baltimore suburbanites credited Bates (32%) more than Scott (25%). “All told, the data show that the homicide drop is widely recognized, but the credit for itis filtered through political identity and geography, rather than any single sharedunderstanding of what drove the change,” Gonzales wrote. The Gonzales poll surveyed 808 likely Maryland voters by phone from Dec. 21 through Jan. 6. There is a 95% probability that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. ...read more read less