If the election were held today, half of Maryland voters would choose to return Democrat Wes Moore to the Governor’s Mansion, according to a new poll by Gonzales Research Media Services. Meanwhile, 28% would back an unnamed Republican challenger, 6% would cast their ballot for an unnamed third-party candidate, and 16% are undecided. While Gonzales acknowledges a candidate only needs 50% of the vote to win an election, he also notes that’s a far cry from 2022 when Moore earned 64% of the vote to become governor. That sliding support is represented in the governor’s approval rating, too. Currently, 52% of voters approve of his job as governor, while 41% disapprove. Moore’s approval rating is down from 61% one year ago in January 2025, and from his peak of 64% in September 2024. “The lines are converging – and fast. What was once a comfortable margin is now a tightening squeeze,” Gonzales wrote. Marylanders were nearly evenly split on how they feel the state is doing, with 47% saying Maryland is heading in the right direction, while 44% said the state is moving in the wrong direction. That “narrow, uneasy balance … signals neither broad confidence nor outright pessimism,” Gonzales wrote. He added, “These numbers suggest an electorate caught in a moment of collective ambivalence, where nearly equal shares of people see progress and decline in the very same landscape. Such a split reminds us that “direction” is never purely external – it’s filtered through experience, memory, and hope (or lack thereof).” But Marylanders were more decisive in their views on taxes. More than half – 58% – said they and their family are paying too much in taxes, and another 41% feel the amount of taxes they pay is about right. Unsurprisingly, practically nobody felt they were paying too little in taxes. The Gonzales poll surveyed 808 likely Maryland voters by phone from Dec. 21 through Jan. 6. There is a 95% probability that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. ...read more read less