It’s the first day of the year, and our gaze has shifted forward. There’s plenty coming in the next 12 months that we couldn’t possibly anticipate. But there are a few things we know, for sure, we’ll have answers to by the end of this year. Here are the things we don’t know now th at we will know soon: Who will be the next governor of Connecticut? Credit: Shahrzad Rasekh / CT Mirror Connecticut’s election calendar brings certainty as to when voters will endorse, nominate and elect a governor in 2026. Nominating conventions are in May, primaries are Aug. 11 and Election Day is Nov. 3. The actual outcome? Well, the gamblers who publicly forecast elections are liking the early chances of a threepeat for Gov. Ned Lamont. One, RacetotheWH.com, gives Lamont a 95.9% percent chance of retaining what pretty much everyone considers a safe Democratic seat and projects him winning by 18.6 percentage points. Rep. Josh Elliot, D-Hamden, has shown little progress in his campaign to convince Democrats to deny a sitting governor the nomination to another term. On the Republican side, former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart and state Sen. Ryan Fazio of Greenwich are doing their best to ignore each other and the prospect of a late entry by Betsy McCaughey, who was New York’s lieutenant governor in the last century and is teasing making her Connecticut electoral debut at age 77. The Newsmax anchor and NY Post columnist lives in Greenwich. — Mark Pazniokas, Capitol Bureau Chief Will the economy enter recession? Credit: Peter Morgan / AP File Photo The first half of last year came with worries about the economy — with post-pandemic fears about inflation, stagnant wages and affordability further complicated by uncertainty over changes to trade policy and waves of new tariffs. Many of those concerns remain, as a “K-shaped economy” — one where high-earners experience relative prosperity while lower-earners struggle — becomes a popular way for understanding the muddled national economic outlook.   The ups and downs have stoked fears that the U.S. is entering a recession, defined as a period of widespread economic decline that usually lasts at least a few months. For some economists, several states — including Connecticut — could already be in one. If the nation does reach the economic standard for a recession this year, Connecticut may be more prepared that some: The state has $4.3 billion in its rainy day fund and recent stress tests have shown the state has enough to survive a hypothetical downturn for several months. But the story of 2026 won’t just be the technicalities of the economy, but how people are experiencing it. And with state unemployment up slightly from the start of last year, the state’s labor force declining, and consumer costs on the rise, one thing to watch for is what further economic strain could mean for the everyday lives of Connecticut residents.  — P.R. Lockhart, Economic Development Reporter Will Connecticut keep its WNBA team? Credit: Bryan Woolston / AP After more than 20 years as Connecticut’s lone major league professional sports team, the WNBA’s Connecticut Sun face the possibility of moving out of state. News that the Mohegan Tribe, the team’s owners since 2003, were exploring a sale first popped up last spring. By August, a reported $325 million deal between the tribe and Boston Celtics minority owner Steve Pagliuca emerged that would move the team to Boston in 2027, placing it in a larger New England market that could provide improved facilities. The months since were confusing. The WNBA said the Boston deal wasn’t valid, arguing that any team sales must be handled through the league before they can be approved. There were other proposals for the Sun as well, including a deal that would keep the team in state but move games to Hartford, as well as a controversial state-backed proposal that would see Connecticut purchase a minority stake in the team using pension funds.  So far, the league has effectively killed these proposals by ignoring them, discouraging the state from submitting any official offer. The Sun is definitely sticking around in Uncasville for the 2026 season, but with a new WNBA team potentially joining the regional market in Boston in 2033 or later, and the WNBA reportedly eyeing a sale to Houston, the Sun’s time in Connecticut could be setting.  — P.R. Lockhart, Economic Development Reporter Will there be a ‘blue wave’ in midterm elections? Credit: Shahrzad Rasekh / CT Mirror Democrats are looking to build on their “blue wave” that swept local elections across Connecticut and a handful of states at the end of 2025. During this year’s midterm elections, they will test whether they can continue that trend. Republicans could defy the odds in a cycle that’s considered tough for the incumbent party. This November, the U.S. House and U.S. Senate will be up for grabs — Republicans control both chambers with narrow margins. The party that controls the White House historically loses seats in a midterm year, and these elections tend to serve as a referendum on the current administration. Democrats’ last wave election was in 2018 during President Donald Trump’s first term, when they took back the House and gained a net total of 41 seats. — Lisa Hagen, Federal Policy Reporter Will Connecticut lawmakers consider a public option for health insurance? Credit: Shahrzad Rasekh / CT Mirror This one’s probably not going to happen in 2026. On the campaign trail, Lamont has introduced the idea of “a Connecticut option” — some type of health plan that will offer residents access to high-quality health care at an affordable price. But the details are vague, and the governor himself has admitted the policy is still in very early stages. He’s said he thinks it will likely take a year to sort out the details and he expects to propose legislation related to a Connecticut option in 2027. — Katy Golvala, Health Care Reporter How many new units of housing will Connecticut towns add? Credit: Stephen Busemeyer / CT Mirror House Bill 8002 goes into effect this year. The sweeping bill addresses zoning and eliminates some off-street parking minimums, among other measures. We’ll start to see towns prepare for implementing some of the requirements and instituting others. Under the law, towns with populations of at least 15,000 must create fair rent commissions or join regional commissions by 2028. This means that 32 more towns have to create fair rent commissions. We can also expect to see towns working on their housing growth plans, which are official plans to increase the number of designated affordable units in a town. The plans, required under the law and due every five years, must have specific goals, with the number of units towns think they’ll zone for. Municipalities can decide whether to participate in a regional plan or develop their own. The first plans aren’t due until 2028, but towns will soon have decisions to make about how they want to move forward. — Ginny Monk, Housing and Children’s Issues Reporter What effects will the Trump cuts have on Connecticut’s state budget? Credit: Shahrzad Rasekh / CT Mirror Though President Trump and the GOP-led Congress likely will extract hundreds of millions of dollars from Connecticut’s budget starting in 2027, state policymakers will face many questions — and some financial hits — this year. Should Connecticut replace some or all the roughly $350 million in federal premium assistance that about 140,000 enrollees in health insurance plans sold through the state exchange likely will lose to start the year? What happens to an estimated 36,000 immigrants, young adults, veterans and people experiencing homelessness expected to have lost Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits by March 31 because of new work requirements or other rules changes? If Connecticut were to cover the monthly cost for this group, which involves one tenth of the state’s total SNAP caseload, legislators have said it likely would be less than $10 million. And some federal tax changes — aimed primarily at the wealthy but also assisting corporations, will be in effect in the coming year. That means Connecticut — which links its state corporate tax system to the federal code — expects to lose about $70 million in revenues by June 30. — Keith Phaneuf, State Budget Reporter ...read more read less