Financial realities have forced regional transportation officials toward a more cost-efficient long-range approach that can bring transit segments online as they seek to build out the fuller plan in coming decades. The San Diego Association of Governments is moving away from a massive, rail-centric approach to one that relies more on buses, particularly rapid routes. In addition to the budget challenges, San Diego City Council President Joe La Cava, vice chair of  SANDAG’s board, said the agency has long made big promises and not delivered. “We have left the era behind of very big ideas,” he said, as reported by Lucas Robinson of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Another way to look at it is, this is a great idea. The bus long has been treated like a second-class citizen by transportation agencies around the country, which have often prioritized more expensive and, if you will, sexier rail projects, particularly light rail. Buses are flexible, more cost-effective and increasingly sophisticated with updated technology — and they have long been the backbone of transit systems. Trolleys are indeed an essential part of transit and will continue to be a big part of SANDAG’s plan, with the likelihood of expansion, though perhaps not as much or as soon as previously envisioned. The proposals for heavier rail commuter projects are now in the past. Expanded and improved bus service has always been in the mix, but now it’s more of a priority. That it wasn’t before was a mistake. Vital to SANDAG’s reality, bus lines can be brought to serve riders in a piecemeal way as long-term financing — a big question mark — is figured out. That’s difficult to do with rail. More rapid buses are already in the works. Even before the exit of the author of the previous regionwide plan — former SANDAG CEO Hasan Ikhrata — his $163 billion, four-decade blueprint had its critics, who said it was bloated and had potentially unsolvable financial and logistical problems. As is often the case with broad transportation plans, that version also was caught up in the familiar push-pull between building and improving roads vs. expanding transit. The scaled-back plan, still at a pricey $125 billion, remains a combination of both, but has an  emphasis on managed and carpool lanes that, significantly, can separate buses from general traffic. That plan’s financing is no more certain than Ikhrata’s, however, and relies on future tax increases, the likes of which San Diego voters have defeated in the recent past. SANDAG made a similar shift to buses once before, although on a smaller scale. For more than four decades, officials talked about a trolley link, or some kind of people mover, to San Diego International Airport. Ambitious. Expensive proposals came and went. During much of that time, there was bus service from downtown. In 2021, an airport shuttle was launched at the Old Town Transit Center. Just over a year ago, SANDAG moved to increase the airport runs, at least on an interim basis. A mythical elevated trolley to the airport almost certainly would be more convenient than buses, and probably more fun to ride. But the bus and shuttles are often more convenient than driving a car to the airport. And they’re real. Buses aren’t a panacea. There’s an image problem and steps need to be taken to make them more attractive to the public. Often, they’re not frequent or reliable enough, and make too many stops. Surveys have shown riders want to see improvements in those areas, rather than, say, adding amenities like enhanced Wi-Fi and USB ports. In the terms of transportation planners, people want better “urban mobility.” One big hurdle is when there aren’t dedicated bus or carpool lanes and buses have to traverse the same congested roads and freeways as cars. Even in those cases, buses can move many people, reducing traffic congestion, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to climate change. Electric buses, of course, are even more environmentally-friendly. Off-board fare collection, contactless payments, real-time tracking — common with trolleys and,  increasingly, rapid buses — make for a better rider experience. Getting people out of their cars has always been a challenge for trolley and bus systems in San Diego and Southern California. Improved service and a record of getting people where they’re going as quickly or more quickly than automobiles would help. An increasingly negative incentive is the growing expense of driving. Gas prices are always volatile but locally have been pushing toward $5 per gallon for regular. The average price of a new car in the U.S. recently exceeded $50,000. The average price of a used car in California is more than $37,500, according to the website iSeeCars. Who knows whether those prices could ever be substantially reduced. Everything is getting more expensive, buses included. But cost is a much bigger issue for new trolley service. The estimated price for a proposed scaled-back Purple Line from the U.S.-Mexico border to Mission Valley is $11.3 billion, according to the Union-Tribune’s Robinson. (The initial plan to extend that line to Sorrento Valley has been pushed back.) He noted the price tag of the Blue Line’s 11-mile extension to University City, which opened in 2021, was $2.2 billion — and that was above earlier estimates. Beyond cost, Purple Line development will face a high degree of difficulty because of the topography of mesas and valleys. There’s a real-world, intriguing concept that’s worth noting here, though it’s not known whether it would lower San Diego’s financial and geographical hurdles. China has developed what’s known as Autonomous Rapid Transit, sometimes called “trackless trains.” They are rubber-tired electric vehicles that use roads with sensors to follow virtual tracks marked by lines. Advocates say they are a cost-effective, eco-friendly alternative to some other forms of transit. The vehicles have the flexibility of buses but look like, and some say ride smoothly like, a trolley. The future of transit may not be riding the rails, but on wheels. What they said Alex Griswold (@HashtagGriswold) of the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (TheFIRE.org.) “The (Trump) Rob Reiner post is gonna break the record for number of senators who didn’t see it.” ...read more read less