By Mileah Kromer, Sofia Cabrera and Trisha Sirsat Just under a year from the 2026 elections, Governor Wes Moore’s approval rating sits at 52 percent, with nearly half of voters saying they would support him for a second term, according to a recent UMBC Poll. Moore’s standing with the publ ic has been relatively stable during his first term. His topline approval numbers have held in the low to mid-fifties, though his disapproval rating has risen from around a quarter early in his term to 44 percent today. Yet even amid some growing discontent, Moore’s above-water approval rating and 20-point lead over an unnamed Republican challenger leave him with considerable leverage over the state’s policy agenda and a clear path toward reelection in 2026. Still, topline stability can obscure important undercurrents. The most interesting contours of public attitudes toward Moore aren’t coming from Democrats or Republicans but rather from unaffiliated voters. Two factors help explain their views: evaluations of economic conditions and perceptions of the Democratic Party. This chart shows the overall job approval rating for Gov. Moore. Before looking at how unaffiliated voters respond, it’s worth noting that Marylanders are generally pessimistic about the state’s economic condition over the past year and in the year ahead. Nearly 70 percent rate the past year’s conditions as “poor” or “fair,” and a majority (55 percent) expect the situation to worsen next year. But for Democrats and Republicans, when it comes to evaluating Moore, economic perceptions matter only at the margins. Among Democrats, approval of Moore ranges from 71 percent among those with negative evaluations of the economy to 88 percent among those with positive views, according to the UMBC Octover survey. A similar pattern appears among Republicans: holding a positive view of the economy does little to shift their overwhelmingly negative assessments of the governor. Economic perceptions play a far more significant role for unaffiliated voters. Moore’s approval rating and support for reelection among unaffiliated voters who rate economic conditions over the past year as “excellent” or “good” is roughly twice as high as among those who rate conditions as “poor” or “fair.” Expectations for economic conditions next year reveal a similar divide. Nearly three-quarters of unaffiliated voters who think economic conditions will improve approve of Moore, compared with just 36 percent of those who think conditions will worsen. While the impact of attitudes toward future economic conditions is more mixed when it comes to support for Moore’s reelection, the overall pattern is clear: economic optimism brings unaffiliated voters closer to Moore, and pessimism drives them away. This chart shows job approval and support for Gov. Moore based on perceptions of economic conditions. A similar pattern emerges regarding perceptions of the Democratic Party. The UMBC Poll asked Marylanders to evaluate the Democratic Party in Maryland across several traits. Among Democrats, positive evaluations of their party reinforce their already strong support for Moore. Republicans give both the Democratic Party and Moore low marks. The difference among unaffiliated voters is striking. For example, when they rate the Democratic Party at the low end of the scale (1 or 2) on “sharing their values,” Moore’s approval is just 11 percent. But among those who rate the Democratic Party as a 4 or 5, Moore’s approval jumps to 87 percent. Similar swings appear across all the traits. These dynamics extend to the 2026 vote choice. Democrats remain overwhelmingly supportive of Moore, while Republicans are overwhelmingly opposed, regardless of how they view the governor’s party. But Moore’s electoral support among unaffiliated voters fluctuates considerably. When their evaluations of the Democratic Party are positive, his support reaches 61 percent or higher. When perceptions are negative, support drops to 16 percent or below. This chart shows job approval and support for Gov. Moore based on unaffiliated voter perceptions. As Moore looks toward 2026, continued strong support among his Democratic base will help keep his path to reelection clear. Still, the shifting views of unaffiliated voters matter at the ballot box and beyond. Governors with strong approval ratings command greater agenda-setting power — shaping public debate, influencing the legislative agenda, and defining the state’s priorities. And with unaffiliated voters now approaching a quarter of the Maryland electorate, they will have a substantial say in how much of that influence Moore carries into the year ahead. Mileah Kromer is the director of the UMBC Institute of Politics, where Sofia Cabrera and Trish Sirsat are research assistants. ...read more read less