Shoplifting and organized retail crime have quietly reshaped the economics of doing business in the state of Colorado. This impacts not only the costs of business itself, but the economic welfare of the state at large. This is a structural drag on Colorado’s economy that touches every consumer, wo rker, local government and business. Colorado is in the midst of a dramatic shift in its perceived public safety. According to the Common Sense Institute, the statewide crime rate rose 26% between 2011 and 2023. As with other categories, retail theft has been worsening — especially in the last year. In 2024 alone, law enforcement recorded 27,094 shoplifting incidents, a 22.4% increase from 2023 and nearly 10% higher than a decade ago. As with other crimes, this is obviously an undercount. However, retail theft has a reporting rate far less than most other crime categories. National surveys show that roughly 89% of retail theft goes unreported. That means the real statewide total was closer to 246,000 theft events. In all, retail theft robbed sellers of $1.3 billion worth of merchandise. These losses translate directly into a statewide economic hit. According to the latest modeling from the Common Sense Institute, that $1.3 billion in stolen goods from Colorado retailers has ripple effects. Between 2026 and 2030, that level of yearly loss will cost Colorado 8,485 jobs in 2026. GDP drops by nearly $300 million a year. This economic drain goes beyond the retail floor. Retail theft is unique among theft types in that it has a direct impact on government revenue. Retail theft directly cuts into taxable sales. Colorado forfeited an estimated $37.4 million in sales tax revenue from the stolen goods themselves in 2024, and another $40.6 million from fraudulent returns and retail scams. Altogether, that makes a $78 million shortfall in annual taxes. This is, perhaps predictably, a mainly urban problem, but that has been changing recently. Retail theft is tightly clustered across Colorado’s 64 counties. Ten counties account for nearly 85% of all reported incidents. Adams, Jefferson, El Paso, and Denver counties alone are responsible for more than 60% of statewide thefts. These Front Range counties are the convergence point where most high-density retail centers, major transportation networks, and population growth meet. Historically lower-theft areas like Boulder and Otero, however, entered the top 10 list for the first time in 2024. Retail theft’s footprint appears to be radiating outward away from urban centers. The Colorado legislature made major changes to the general theft statute, including the value thresholds for felonies, effective July 13, 2023.  That 2013 legislation (HB 13-1160) significantly revised the dollar amounts that determine the severity of theft charges, generally making the thresholds more lenient. The lowest felony threshold was doubled from $1,000 to $2,000. Misdemeanor and petty offense categories were redefined within the $50 to $1,999 range. Theft of property valued at less than $50 became a Class 1 petty offense, when it was previously a higher-level offense. The dollar amounts for all offense levels (petty offenses, misdemeanors, and felonies) were adjusted, creating a more detailed range of charges and penalties. This resulted in less severe charges for the theft of lower-value items compared to the previous law. Prior to 2013 the value tiers for theft in Colorado were: Class 2 Misdemeanor: Stolen property valued at less than $500. Class 1 Misdemeanor: Stolen property valued at $500 or more but less than $1,000. Class 4 Felony: Stolen property valued at $1,000 or more but less than $20,000. In short, an organized retail thief in Colorado can now steal twice as much merchandise and face half the penalty. Not all theft looks the same. Retail theft falls into two broad buckets: personal use and organized retail crime, or ORC. The data shows most shoplifting involves mid-value merchandise between $100–$299. These are items that are both easy to steal and easy to resell. There is a smaller slice of theft above $1,000. Nationally, about 4.3% of all shoplifting incidents fall into this high-value range. In Colorado’s case, that equals roughly 1,165 cases a year. Colorado’s felony threshold doesn’t reflect this reality. Under current law, theft becomes a felony only at $2,000, one of the highest thresholds in the country. The national average is roughly $1,100. This is not a negligible difference, and it has important implications. Research from the University of Colorado shows that raising felony thresholds is associated with higher theft rates. States that raised felony thresholds experience a 4% increase in theft each time they raise the bar. Colorado’s retail theft crisis won’t be solved with a single policy fix. Data, however, points toward practical, targeted reforms that align retail theft penalties with real-world harms. Lower the felony threshold to $1,000. Colorado’s $2,000 threshold is an outlier and provides too much room for high-value theft that falls short of meaningful consequences. Aligning Colorado with national norms won’t eliminate theft, but it will disrupt the cost-benefit calculus of organized retail crime. Colorado should: Consider ways to modernize theft statutes. A policy change that updates definitions and sentencing for theft-related crimes; introduces higher classifications for repeat offenders; addresses organized retail crime directly, and adds limited mandatory minimums for chronic offenders could be valuable.  Improve statewide data collection and classification. Colorado struggles to differentiate organized retail crime from opportunistic shoplifting. A statutory category for ORC would allow the state to target the problem. Strengthen collaboration between retailers and law enforcement. Retail theft is concentrated, predictable, and increasingly coordinated. Public-private partnerships, regional intelligence-sharing, and consistent reporting protocols would dramatically improve the state’s capacity to disrupt organized theft networks. Retail theft has already reshaped Colorado’s economy. The state needs to respond with the appropriate measures. The problem is not only petty theft, but coordinated retail crime combined with statutory thresholds that have not kept pace with inflation, changing criminal incentives, or the sheer scale of today’s retail sector. The economic consequences of retail theft could eventually result in fewer local businesses and higher prices for families. They are already weakening tax revenue for essential services and causing an economic drag that compounds year after year. Retail theft is an economic issue. It is a public safety issue. And unless Colorado adapts, it will continue to be a growing statewide crisis. Mitch Morrissey is the former Denver district attorney and Common Sense Institute Owens Early Criminal Justice Fellow. ...read more read less