HONOLULU (KHON2) - As showers redevelop tonight, a few heavier showers may develop in the vicnity of Kauai. Otherwise, this upper low will slowly drift eastward across the state through Tuesday contributing to a slow eastward spreading of weak instability. Upstream visible imagery suggests a steady supply of shallow moisture which will favor continued showers over windward and mauka areas through early this week. Any particularly organized pockets of moisture may contain locally heavy showers. Tuesday through at least early Wednesday will be characterized by mid-level shortwave ridging developing in response to a digging mid- latitude trough that will impinge on the area late Wednesday through Friday. This period of ridging will bring a brief period of increased stability as the surface pressure gradient diminishes. As a consequence, a transition to a land and sea breeze pattern is anticipated no later than Wednesday as mid-level stability begins to weaken. Large scale ascent is then maximized Thursday through Friday and afternoon showers over island interiors are likely to gain appreciable depth likely resulting in pockets of heavy downpours each afternoon. Light winds continue into the weekend as mid-level forcing diminishes resulting in either a land/sea breeze pattern with more muted diurnal convection or a hybrid sea breeze pattern which will tend to focus showers over western slopes of each island. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters. ...read more read less