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What’s driving down gun violence in St. Paul? Solving nonfatal shootings and outreach are helping, officials say
Apr 13, 2025
Gun violence is down in St. Paul: The number of people wounded in shootings can be counted on two hands and neither of the homicides have been by gunfire.
The eight people hurt in shootings, as of April 8, compares with 26 during the same timeframe last year. There have been two homicides, both by s
tabbings. Eight people had been killed in St. Paul as of this date last year; five had been shot.
The St. Paul police chief and the head of the Office of Neighborhood Safety say several efforts have contributed to the decline:
A new unit of investigators is concentrating on solving nonfatal shootings.
As officers build cases involving guns and gangs, other officers are focusing on intervention for young people on the fringes of trouble.
Life coaches are working with young people who are at risk for gun and group violence.
When Police Chief Axel Henry was in the running to become chief in 2022, he was attending community forums and people would ask how much law enforcement could do to address crime trends. His answer: It takes strategic work and time, but that makes a difference.
“You don’t drive the murder number down by pushing at the murder number,” Henry said recently. “You drive the murder number down by pushing at all the other areas where you can forecast, whether it’s domestic violence or whether it’s youth violence or group violence or gun possessions.”
Here’s a look at the Non-Fatal Shooting Unit, violence prevention and the downward trends happening elsewhere:
Non-Fatal Shooting Unit
St. Paul police homicide investigators averaged a clearance rate of 92 percent from 2020 to now, according to the police department. The national average was about 58 percent in 2023.
The same wasn’t true for nonfatal shootings. The clearance rate was 27 percent at the end of 2022 and 38 percent at the end of 2023, according to the St. Paul Police Department.
Soon after Mayor Melvin Carter named Henry as chief, he asked him: How is it that the clearance rate for murders — when “your best witness is dead” — is so much better than cases where there is a surviving witness?
Henry told him the factors include:
The community in general doesn’t regard nonfatal shootings as seriously as they do a homicide. “Some people actually wear it as a badge of honor that they’ve been shot,” Henry added.
Some people won’t cooperate with law enforcement “because they’d rather go out themselves or have their family or friends go out and seek revenge.”
The biggest piece was homicide investigators’ case load: in addition to homicides, they investigated nonfatal shootings, other serious assaults and robberies.
Carter asked Henry, “If I could create an avenue for you to … treat those (cases) … more like murders, do you think you could make a difference?” the chief recounted. He told the mayor: “I know we could.”
Ramsey County Attorney John Choi also approached Henry and told him they’d been looking at Denver police’s work and success in solving nonfatal shootings.
With grant funding of $2.9 million for three years, the St. Paul Police Department’s Non-Fatal Shooting Unit initiative started in January 2024. They have nine investigators, who they moved from other units in the department and who now put all their time into investigating nonfatal shootings. The clearance rate jumped to about 71 percent for 2024 cases.
“The intensity of the investigations is very different” than they were previously, Choi said.
In the past, “if there was a dead end, we might move on to the next case, or if a victim or witness isn’t cooperating, that would also be reason potentially to move on to another case,” the county attorney said.
But they recognized they often prosecute cases without the help of a victim, such as homicides or domestic assaults when a victim doesn’t want to be part of the investigation, Choi said.
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Choi recommended and the Ramsey County Board allocated nearly $1.8 million to fund a nonfatal shooting initiative from 2024 through 2027. Included was a one-time $200,000 allocation to boost suburban agencies and the sheriff’s office in investigations, $200,000 per year to assist victims and witnesses for four years, and $115,000 annually for 2024 and 2025 to expedite forensic testing on guns and ammunition.
Law enforcement presented 88 nonfatal shooting cases to the Ramsey County Attorney’s Office last year and they charged 81 cases. There have been 20 cases presented so far this year (they could have occurred in a previous year) and 16 have been charged. Choi has a prosecutor designated to work on such cases.
When people see nonfatal shootings being solved, that also decreases the risk of retaliatory shootings, said Brooke Blakey, St. Paul Office of Neighborhood Safety director.
Violence prevention
Around this time in 2022, 52 people had been wounded in shootings in St. Paul.
“The biggest feeder for that was … gang violence,” Henry said.
Henry says an example he often uses is this: If someone is shooting people, police are “going to find you, we’re going to hold you accountable.” But maybe that person has a little brother who “looks up to everything” his brother does and is “on a path” to following him.
That’s where the Office of Neighborhood Safety, community groups and the police department’s ASPIRE (A St. Paul Intervention and Recovery Effort) unit comes in.
St. Paul started the Office of Neighborhood Safety in 2022, and launched Project PEACE that summer.
As part of curbing violence, community leaders and officers meet with young people — and often a parent or parents — to inform them their actions are on the radar of police. They tell them, “These are the things that we can offer to get you on the right track. And if you’re not willing to get on the right track, understand that they are going to employ the traditional (law enforcement) response, but we’re giving you an opportunity to do something different,” Blakey said.
They may be referred to life coaches who work for the Office of Neighborhood Safety. ONS is up to five coaches and they’re in the process of hiring two more, Blakey said. A mental health professional is on the team, a couple of coaches are licensed alcohol and drug counselors, and some have worked in group homes or schools.
The coaches are trained or being trained in cognitive behavioral therapy.
Most of the people the coaches are working with are 17 to 35 years old. They’ve “had such traumatic experiences … that it takes time to get to that change,” Blakey said, which is where therapy comes in. “We can do tons of workforce development and other things, but if we’re not looking at how to really change the psyche and rewire individuals in the space of wanting to be productive residents of the city, then our efforts are for naught.”
There’s also Ramsey County’s Healing Streets Project, started five years ago. Their efforts have included, for about two years, having their community mediators/anti-violence advocates at Regions Hospital work with victims and their families after a shooting, said Mark Campbell, the project’s program supervisor. They’ve been working to expand their support systems as people come home from the hospital.
It goes beyond St. Paul
Homicides are declining this year throughout Minnesota, statewide numbers show.
There were 12 victims throughout the state in January and February, the most recent information available. An average of 28 people were killed in January and February during the past four years, based on data maintained by the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension.
The Minneapolis police chief and mayor announced this month that gunshot wound victims have dropped to levels lower than those from before the COVID-19 pandemic. Homicides are on par with first-quarter numbers from 2019, which Minneapolis officials say continues a positive trend after a peak in 2022.
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Minneapolis police said in a statement that they’ve focused enforcement in areas most affected by violent crime and there’s been “community collaboration with outreach groups to disrupt violence through visible, positive presence and outreach.”
St. Paul homicides also peaked in 2022 with 40 recorded. The numbers in the capital city started rising before the pandemic, in the fall of 2019. Last year, homicides were trending down, but a spike in the fall meant the year ended with more than 30 homicides.
Although the work in St. Paul has been promising, Chief Henry said he’s always hesitant to say “we’ve cracked the code” until time goes on.
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