Despite some twists and turns, the main dynamic of the campaign for county supervisor hasn’t changed since the beginning: The real race has been between Democrats Paloma Aguirre and Vivian Moreno to face Republican John McCann in an almost certain July 1 runoff. Election Day, round one, in this sp ecial election is Tuesday, though voters began casting mail ballots weeks ago and more recently at vote centers set up throughout South Bay’s District 1. Aguirre, the mayor of Imperial Beach, is finishing with a flurry amid national attention focused on the cross-border sewage spills from Mexico — her top issue — and her demand that the county not approve a full budget for the coming fiscal year until the vacant supervisorial seat is filled. Moreno, a San Diego City Council member, is also pressing forward to Tuesday on hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign money both from her own campaign and independent committees. But she has faced some hiccups of late over a questionable independent campaign mailer and her past opposition to state legislation that would block a landfill in the district. Aguirre has had plenty of money not to just be competitive but, with much of the region’s progressive Democratic and labor infrastructure behind her, to win the race. There has been a big labor split, however, with carpenters and laborers unions going heavily for Moreno — and waging tough attacks against Aguirre. In all, seven candidates are running, with Chula Vista Councilmember Carolina Chavez, another Democrat, considered among the higher-profile candidates. Chavez has joined in the call for delaying the budget. Any of them could win the seat outright by gaining more than 50 percent of the vote next week, but that’s unlikely. Internal campaign polls show McCann, the only major Republican in the race, advancing to the runoff, perhaps in the lead coming out of the primary. From there, the odds quickly turn against him, assuming fissures within the Democratic-labor community subside, even if bruised feelings don’t entirely, in the heavily Democratic district. With so much at stake, it would be a surprise if internal feuds contribute to a Democratic defeat. The seat opened after then-Supervisor Nora Vargas, a Democrat, announced in December she would not serve the second term she won in a landslide the previous month. That left the county Board of Supervisors with a partisan split, two Democrats and two Republicans. Only in the past handful of years have Democrats gained control of the majority after decades of Republican control. McCann is a well-known figure in the region, and while the partisan demographics will be a big factor, his best chance to win is in this kind of low-turnout special election. Further, in the runoff he’ll trying to steer the conversation to his local record and nonpartisan issues. Aguirre’s Imperial Beach represents only a miniscule portion of the supervisorial district. Yet in recent years her aggressive advocacy for a solution to the sewage spills, and lobbying for the money to pay for one it, have raised her profile across the county, particularly in the greater South Bay, beyond the city’s borders. Many others have been involved in addressing the toxic flows for years, however, particularly San Diego’s congressional delegation. Nevertheless, Aguirre’s efforts have received considerable attention in the local media, and that has been buttressed by a barrage of campaign mailers highlighting her work on the issue, among other things. Not long ago Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin, recently appointed by President Donald Trump, mentioned the problem and castigated Mexico for it on social media. This week he said he would soon visit the border here to have a look for himself. Aguirre pounced on the news both times with thinly veiled suggestions that her lobbying and letters to Zeldin caught the EPA chief’s attention. Whether that’s the case, local Republican officials, including McCann, reportedly had a hand in these latest developments regarding Zeldin. A union supporting Moreno, Laborers’ International Union of North America (LiUNA) Local 89, has spent a lot of money on mailers attacking Aguirre, contending the sewage problem has grown worse under her watch. However the positives and negatives balance out, it has all given Aguirre a clear identity of fighting to fix the mess. More recently, Aguirre cited a push by Supervisor Joel Anderson, an East County Republican, for the board to pass a budget under the normal timeline, which would be before a new supervisor takes office this summer. Aguirre and Chavez said that means South Bay residents would have no representative on the board during budget deliberations. On Friday, Supervisor Monica Montgomery Steppe proposed a two-step county budget process, calling for approval of a tentative spending play by the end of June and a final vote in October. A release from her office said this would give the board more time to “account for uncertainties surrounding shifting federal policies” as well as allow the fifth supervisor to take office before the budget is formally passed. It’s harder to say how or whether Moreno is defined in the eyes of voters. But she’s often seen as business-friendly and an ardent housing advocate who also embraces fundamental progressive views. At times, she has shown a willingness to go against the grain of other Democrats at City Hall. Moreno is considered relentless in tending to constituents, first as a council staffer and then as a member, and that has paid dividends in winning elections. For years, she has been plugged into an extensive on-the-ground South Bay network often identified with Assemblymember David Alvarez, Moreno’s former boss at City Hall. She certainly has had the backing to get her message out. However, some of that went sideways. The Municipal  Employees Association, a city workers union, funded a mailer independent of the Moreno campaign that praised her efforts to help residents after the January 2024 floods. Some flood victims in the piece later complained, saying they didn’t give consent for their photo to be used nor do they support Moreno. More than $2 million has been spent on attack ads, laudatory pieces and the occasional misstep in this race. But there’s no indication any of it has changed the basic dynamics of the race. What they said Jonah Goldberg (@JonahDispatch), editor of The Dispatch.”Liberation from what?” Steven Greenhut (@StevenGreenhut), columnist.”From your retirement savings.” ...read more read less