By Mileah Kromer, Yamuna Pati, and Michelle EnomannaSignificant changes have occurred in the public opinion polling industry over the past decade. Among various methodological innovations, survey researchers have expanded their data collection methods, incorporated non-probability-based sampling fra mes, and improved their statistical techniques for weighing data.However, one thing has remained constant since the Gallup Organization conducted its first scientific polls in the 1930s. Pollsters continue to ask the public whether they approve or disapprove of how their elected officials perform their jobs, and the public’s responses to this straightforward question remain politically significant. The UMBC Poll asked Maryland residents to evaluate how Wes Moore is handling his job as governor last month.  At that time, a majority (52 percent) approved, while 40 percent disapproved. That results in a net approval of +12, meaning the governor was “above water” with the public. Okay, so is that good? Most pollsters and political insiders will tell you that a job approval rating above fifty percent and a net approval rating in double digits generally indicates that an elected official has solid public support. But trendlines and political context are also key in assessing the job performance of elected officials, so there is no definitive benchmark number for a “good” approval rating.  To that point, the poll reflected both consistency and change in how Marylanders assessed their governor: The percentage of Marylanders who approve of Moore’s performance has remained steady in the low 50s to low 60s since he took office in January 2023. But, compared to the late-September UMBC Poll, Moore’s disapproval ratings increased from 32 percent to 40 percent, resulting in a decline in his net approval from the +20 range to +12.But the topline approval rating is only part of the story.The pockets of discontent and admiration for Gov. Moore reflected the political polarization that defines much of American politics today. About three-quarters of Republicans disapproved, while nearly 80 percent of Democrats approved of Moore’s job as governor. For comparison, Moore’s disapproval rating among Republicans in his early months in office was just over fifty percent, while his approval rating among Democrats has remained effectively the same. However, the most notable change wasn’t among the state’s partisans but rather among unaffiliated voters, who comprise about twenty percent of the state’s electorate. The UMBC Poll measured a 12-point increase in disapproval among these voters from late September to February. This is a group to watch as Maryland state politics moves through the penultimate legislative session of Moore’s first term and into a statewide election cycle.Beyond partisanship, several other factors likely contributed to the public’s evaluation of Moore, such as attitudes toward the state’s direction and economy, trust in state government, preferences regarding government priorities, and approaches to tackling the multi-billion-dollar budget deficit.For instance, Moore earned an approval rating of 80 percent or higher from Marylanders who believed the state is headed in the right direction, trusted the state government to do what is right, and had a positive view of the state’s economy. His approval rating also varied considerably across attitudes toward state government priorities. Moore earned his lowest approval rating among those who wanted the state government to prioritize reducing state taxes and fees, addressing crime and improving public safety, and lowering the cost of household energy bills.  At the same time, residents who thought the state government should prioritize addressing the cost of healthcare, housing availability, and quality of K-12 public education held the most positive attitudes toward the governor. The lasting impact of these competing priorities on Gov. Moore’s approval rating is likely influenced by the ongoing negotiations between the governor and the Maryland General Assembly regarding the state budget. In late February, thirty-seven percent of Marylanders wanted lawmakers to address the state budget deficit primarily through cuts to spending and government programs. Only a quarter of residents in this group approve of Moore’s job performance. In comparison, his approval rating among the 45 percent who preferred addressing the deficit through a mix of spending cuts and some tax and fee increases was 70 percent. Based on the trends outlined above, it’s likely that Gov. Moore’s leadership in the coming months, particularly regarding the budget and his plans for economic growth, will impact whether he gets a boost or decline next time the UMBC Poll asks Marylanders to weigh in.And, make no mistake, gubernatorial approval ratings matter. Governors who earn strong public support can more effectively pursue their policy agendas and are viewed as more influential in the decision-making processes of state legislators. They are also more likely to be reelected.Mileah Kromer is director of the UMBC Institute of Politics, which conducts the UMBC Poll.  She is also an associate professor of political science.  Yamuna Pati and Michelle Enomanna are research assistants at the UMBC Institute of Politics. ...read more read less