It's a pretty gray start to the last day of March as temperatures are chilly and clouds are filling the skies this morning. We're going to see more sunshine this afternoon and that should bring temperatures back into the mid-50s in the region. The next system to watch will be affecting us tom orrow, with rain chances increasing. Storm chances go up tomorrow night into Wednesday early morning, and some of those storms may be severe for parts of the region. Hail and gusty winds are going to be the two main issues with the storm threat, it looks like. The pattern, though, remains active and not overly warm either. More rain is possible on Friday into the weekend and right now the weekend isn't looking overly great with generally cool weather on tap for awhile. Forecast Today: Gradual clearing and cool with highs in the mid 50s Tonight: Fair and cool with lows in the 30s Tomorrow: Windy and milder with highs into the mid-60s. There is a chance of some afternoon scattered showers. Winds may gust 30-40 MPH at times Tomorrow night: Storms likely with hail and wind being the main threats. We are under a level 2 risk of severe weather on a 1-5 scale. Windy as well. Lows in the 40s to near 50 Wednesday: Clearing out and mild with highs approaching 70° Discussion If nothing else, it's not a boring pattern. Severe storms, ice storms, and down-the-road rain have been the rule for parts of the country these last few days. Last night there were some nasty storms in the TN Valley region with wind, hail and tornadoes. Our weather was okay over the weekend. We sort of salvaged yesterday afternoon, especially on the southside of the Metro. Today will be okay; just cool, which sort of flies in the face of what has been a mild month. This is likely to be around the 10th warmest month in KC weather record history. The last time it was warmer was back in 2012. So it's been warm... I wouldn't say overly wet; it will end up a bit below average with just over 2" of moisture. More rain to start April The next system will affect us tomorrow. Initially it will bring us wind and milder air but after a while higher dew points will come northwards too and that sets the stage for thunderstorms to form tomorrow night into early Wednesday. The storm now is off the western US coast...off of Oregon. It will quickly move eastwards into the northern Plains tomorrow and tomorrow night. This will generate a strong surface response in the form of low pressure in the eastern Rockies tomorrow. That will increase the winds from the S/SSE and that will bring moisture northwards from the southern US. Here is a look at the surface dewpoints. The higher the dew point, the muggier the air is. For thunderstorms we look for dew points in the 50s and 60s+ during this time of the year especially. This animation starts at 7 a.m. tomorrow and goes through 7 a.m. Thursday. For timing...12Z is 6AM, 18Z is 1PM, 0Z is 7PM and 6Z is 1AM So the green contours show the gulf moisture coming northwards. There may be a few scattered showers or perhaps a storm in the mid to late afternoon along the leading edge of this moisture, but the better moisture comes in at night ahead of the storm. By 7 p.m. tomorrow night there is a strong surface low in the western Plains moving northeast. That warm front near I-70 will come farther northwards tomorrow evening. Storms will initiate in northcentral KS and spread eastwards with time tomorrow night and those storms will be strong to severe it appears. The entire region is under a level 2/5 risk of severe weather in that time frame. Tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning. Hail is the main risk...winds secondary and tornadoes are a much lower risk locally. By Wednesday these risks will be shunted towards eastern MO and eastwards. These areas have had a bit of a run for severe weather over the past few weeks or so. This is from yesterday (more reports are coming in) So far only a handful of tornado reports. So we'll be weather aware for tomorrow night into early Wednesday. There is likely another system coming on Thursday but it may be more Lakes region and southern MO focused...we may just have cloud issues then but Friday may bring more rain (not severe weather locally) and then potentially a cold rain set-up for Saturday. The EURO between tomorrow and Saturday late night has this idea for rain totals... The GFS has this idea...not as dramatic. It's not as bullish with the rains tomorrow night as the EURO is and not as bullish and farther south for the stuff on Friday and Saturday. Odds favor something towards the middle, I think. 1-2" may be on the table this week as a whole. Good time to get some fertilizer/weed stuff for the grass down. The NBM, a blend of dozens of models, shows this idea better, perhaps. By the way...that's a LOT of rain towards the Bootheel into AR and through the western TN Valley! It's not a warm pattern overall though, especially towards the weekend...and beyond. Okay, that's it for today...another update tomorrow. The feature photo is from Lonnie Knox down towards Adrian, MO, from the storms the other night. Big lightning makers! Joe ...read more read less