Editor’s Note: The video above shows the latest forecast from the KXAN First Warning Weather team.
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- Our potential for rain will gradually go up as we head through the evening as downpours and storms slowly arrive from southeast to northwest.
We'll experience on and off rain
and storms through Thursday and through at least the first half of Friday.
Forecast Thursday through Friday
These showers and storms have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall rates, but it won't be raining the whole time.
This evening through Thursday
Rain and storms slowly push in this evening, with the highest rain coverage and intensity favoring areas near and south of Austin tonight. Overnight lows drop into the low 60s by daybreak making for a relatively warm night for this time of year.
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Additional rounds of showers, storms and downpours continue through Thursday along with periods of cloudy and drier weather.
There is a low severe weather risk on Thursday and Thursday night, mainly for areas south of Austin where a level 1 out of 5 (marginal) risk of severe weather in place. Generally speaking these means isolated storms containing large hail and gusty winds will be possible during the day on Thursday, but we don't anticipate a severe weather outbreak.
Severe weather risk on Thursday (SPC)
A level 1 out of 4 (marginal) risk of flash flooding includes most of the Austin metro and our eastern counties on Thursday. Heavy rain and storms, especially in urban areas with poor drainage, could cause localized flooding.
Flash flood risk Thursday (WPC)
Friday
Additional rounds of rain and thunderstorms continue Friday, especially in the morning through midday. The storms and heavy rain on Friday should favor the Austin metro and our eastern counties.
A level 1 out of 5 (marginal) risk of severe weather is in place for our eastern counties on Friday with large hail and damaging wind being the primary severe risk.
Severe weather risk on Friday (SPC)
The flash flooding risk on Friday shifts east as the heaviest storms of the morning move away.
Flash flood risk Friday (WPC)
Rainfall totals
The rainfall forecast remains tricky as the potential for training thunderstorms that continue to fall over the same areas could mean some locally high rainfall totals, even in areas where we don't anticipate the highest totals.
More generally speaking we think 1-2" of rain should be fairly common from parts of the eastern Hill Country through the Austin metro and into our eastern counties.
The potential for 2"+ is highest southeast of Austin.
Rain forecast through Friday
By far the highest rainfall totals will be well south of our area where some places could see 6" or more of rain tonight through Friday.
The somewhat chaotic nature of the various interactions between storms adds to the complexity of the rainfall forecast.
Bottom line, flash flooding is possible and you should remember never to drive through flooded roads if you come across one. That said, this will likely not be a drought busting rainfall for us, especially since our highest rainfall projections appear to fall well southeast of the lakes that need it most.
Drying out
Drier weather settles in for the weekend allowing temperatures to climb from only 60s on Thursday back to the middle and upper 80s for Saturday and Sunday.
Only low rain chances are in the cards early next week.
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