PHOENIX — The Chicago Cubs understand what is at stake. In a loaded National League, the path to the postseason likely runs through the Central division, where the Cubs haven’t been able to take command since the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. After dropping the two games against the Los Ange les Dodgers in the Tokyo Series last week, the Cubs kick off their domestic opener Thursday against the Diamondbacks in Arizona to begin a pivotal season for the organization. “In the National League, teams keep pushing each other,” president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said before their opener in Tokyo. “I’ve had American League executives that have commented on it, like, the talent keeps going to this direction, and those things are cyclical. Five years from now, it might be very different, but right now, it’s a really hard league. “When you look at our schedule, there’s not a lot of easy series or a series off. And it’s good for baseball because it’s real parity. But, yeah, the National League is really difficult.” How the Cubs win the division/make the playoffs Kyle Tucker of the Chicago Cubs at bat against the Yomiuri Giants at the Tokyo Dome on March 16, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan. (Kenta Harada/Getty Images) The NL Central is there for the taking by the Cubs. On paper, the Cubs are the best team in the division following key offseason additions of star right fielder Kyle Tucker, left-hander Matthew Boyd, reliever Ryan Pressly and catcher Carson Kelly. The Cubs have both the veteran experience and upside on the roster to take advantage of a division that didn’t see significant upgrades to the other four teams. The Milwaukee Brewers, winners of four of the last five division titles, shouldn’t be overlooked, but the Cubs are positioned well. “I think over time that your talent and your depth really pays dividends,” Hoyer said. “And I think we’re deep, and hopefully that does pay dividends as we start the season.” An X-factor for the Cubs is their young core of first baseman Michael Busch, center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, catcher Miguel Amaya and third baseman Matt Shaw. They need quality production and ideally at least two of them to take significant steps forward in their development to bolster the lineup offensively. Column: End of spring training means new beginnings — and different expectations — for Cubs and White Sox “Ultimately, it’s really about having guys outperform their expectations, I mean, if we want to be as good as we think we can be, you’re going to have to have some exceptional seasons and all those guys individually have the ability to do that,” Hoyer said. A healthy Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner up the middle, after both had surgery in October to fix issues that impacted them most of last year, should make a difference, especially if they tap into more power. Seiya Suzuki, if he can stay healthy, gives them a top-15 hitter in the league who should be able to replicate his 2024 production. Ian Happ in the leadoff spot again gives them an ideal mix of on-base ability and slug. The Cubs might not possess the traditional No. 1 ace on the pitching staff, but their rotation — Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Boyd and Ben Brown — has a mix of consistency, experience and upside that should keep them in plenty of games. The bullpen remains one of their biggest question marks, and the Cubs hope they have assembled a group that can stay healthy and avoid the late-inning woes that plagued them early last year. How the Cubs miss the playoffs Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele heads to the dugout after throwing against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the third inning at the Tokyo Dome on March 19, 2025, in Tokyo. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune) The Cubs’ schedule the first month of the season is a gauntlet. They play 13 of their next 19 games on West Coast time and in the first four weeks will face only one team that finished below .500 last year. By the end of the month, they will have completed their season series against three of the projected top teams in the NL: the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks. The Cubs are well aware of the tough slate ahead, and finding a way to avoid a deep hole in the first month will be paramount. This is a big test that could make the rest of the season an uphill climb. “We’ve got to go play the games and we’ve got to live with the results, and there’s going to be a game the next day,” manager Craig Counsell told reporters. “No matter who you’re playing or who’s pitching, we’re going to try to win that game. … The great thing about the schedule now is it really is the same for everybody. When you play teams, you’ve got no control over, and who’s hurt and all that stuff. But the schedule’s the same for everybody now, and I think that’s a good thing.” Beyond the challenging schedule to begin the year, injuries to key players are always a potential deterrent to a successful season. The Cubs largely avoided significant injuries in 2024 and while the organization is confident in the depth they’ve built — and injuries are unavoidable over a 162-game season — some players would be much harder to replace than others, most notably Tucker, Imanaga and Steele. Sign up for our Cubs Insider newsletter If the Cubs fall short of the playoffs, the always-volatile bullpen would likely play a role in that shortcoming. Wrigley Field was a haven for pitchers and a nightmare for hitters during 2024 — the second-most-oppressive offensive environment in the majors. Ballpark factors are difficult to predict year to year, but trends suggest Wrigley won’t be so extreme this year. Cubs pitchers benefitted from last year’s environment as much as it hurt their hitters, setting up a likely regression on the pitching side, a potential challenge for fly-ball pitchers like Imanaga, while the lineup should get a boost. Limiting walks will be important for the pitching staff. The weight of expectations can be difficult to quantify, but undeniably, there is pressure on this group to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2020 and secure their first division title in a full season since 2017. The aggressiveness of the front office as the summer progresses will be an intriguing subplot. With Hoyer not under contract beyond this season nothing is guaranteed, but winning and taking advantage of the team’s best roster in years always helps job security. Anything less than a playoff appearance would be a failure and could result in leadership changes by ownership. ...read more read less