HONOLULU (KHON2) - The approach of a cold front from the northwest will keep the ridge axis shifted south of its usual position and nearly atop of the island chain, maintaining a light east-southeasterly flow across the state through tomorrow. The cold front will stall north of the state tonight , along with the bulk of its moisture. However, if the front manages to sag a bit further south than what current model guidance is showing, its moisture field could bring a slight bump in shower activity to the western end of the state tonight into tomorrow. Otherwise, in this lighter flow, the east- southeasterly winds will help to focus low clouds and showers over windward areas, particularly overnight, while land breezes will help to bring clearing to leeward areas by morning. Sea breezes will then bring cloud buildups and a few showers to leeward and interior areas during the day. Overall, shower activity will be limited as mid-level ridging tries to build overhead, increasing atmospheric stability, and drier air continues to filter in from the east. This pattern is expected to persist through most of the week and into next weekend as a progressive pattern to the north keeps the surface ridge relegated south of its usual position and light to moderate east to southeasterly winds persist across the state. A possible deviation from this pattern may occur Tuesday into Wednesday as a perturbation in the flow aloft moves overhead and increases atmospheric instability, which may lead to a slight uptick in shower activity as pockets of moisture move in on the east to southeasterly flow. Then models show reasonable agreement on mid- level ridging building back overhead for the latter part of the week and into the weekend, which will help to suppress shower activity once again. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters. ...read more read less