I came of age during the Great Recession in Elkhart, Ind., known as the “RV Capital of the World.” In March 2009, the jobless rate in the Elkhart region skyrocketed to nearly 20 percent, the worst in the country. Most of my friends’ parents were laid off or underemployed. Everyone, no matter t heir socioeconomic status, struggled.  But by 2018, Elkhart’s economy seemed to have recovered entirely. It was even called “Jobsville, USA” in a Wall Street Journal article, and compared to an oil economy or a “Kuwait in the cornfields.” The unemployment rate hovered at just over 2 percent.  I have encountered many economists who say that if you want to know how the U.S. economy is doing, look at Elkhart. Like similar Rust Belt communities, Elkhart’s economy is in a constant state of boom or bust.   In December 2024, Elkhart’s unemployment rate was 4 percent, a 1.5 percent decrease from July 2024. A quick search on Indeed shows that more than 200 jobs are currently available in the RV industry. Despite news about the stock market wavering and with national consumer sentiment down, Elkhart residents don’t seem too worried about the economy.   “The conversation around tariffs doesn’t necessarily help morale, but I don’t see people getting worried like they did in 2009,” said entrepreneur (and my uncle) George Anagnos.   He and my other uncle, Tony, opened a restaurant in downtown Elkhart during the Great Recession. It’s still operating today. In fact, he now owns three restaurants in the Elkhart area, and one has its banquet room completely booked almost every weekend in 2025 — a sign that residents have disposable income to spend.  So when President Trump was asked on Fox News if he was expecting a recession this year, you can imagine how alarm bells went off in my head. But the Trump administration's outlining of “reciprocal tariffs” shouldn’t be used as an excuse for the mainstream media to scream, “Recession!” especially when the long-term goal of that executive order is freer trade.  “For many years, the U.S. has been treated unfairly by other countries, both friend and foe,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “This system will immediately bring fairness and prosperity back into the previously complex and unfair system of trade.”  In February, the White House published a shortlist of trading partners who did not give the United States reciprocal treatment. Many examples contribute to our ​annual trade deficit, from shellfish to ethanol to cars.   This month, the White House pointed to results thus far of the tariff negotiations: companies looking to expand their presence or build in the U.S. In the long run, Americans win if the reciprocal tariffs work the way the Trump administration intends.   Critics of the tariffs are quick to point out that they could result in price hikes. However, tariffs during the Biden administration, some of which expanded on Trump’s first-term tariffs, did not significantly increase prices across the economy. In 2018, Trump levied tariffs on a few industries, including solar panels, washing machines, steel and aluminum. Research studies have found that consumers bore some of the cost in those sectors. It’s unclear if there would be economy-wide impacts from the proposed tariffs.   Even if reciprocal tariffs raise consumer prices on some products, the Trump administration could soften the blow by prioritizing a two-part, pro-growth agenda: Allow Americans to earn more by removing restrictions on freelancing, self-employment and gig work imposed by the Biden administration, and make the 2017 tax cuts permanent to deliver pay increases, bonuses and benefits to American workers.  Leftists love to tout the talking point that tax cuts only “cater to the rich,” but what they fail to understand is that when resources stay in a business or a household, people can better support themselves and their families, grow their businesses and expand the economy.  The way that the Elkhart economy diversified after the Great Recession is proof: As of 2021, the last year that data was available, Elkhart County had 5,028 business establishments, with 99.4 percent considered small.  Chloe Anagnos is a visiting fellow at Independent Women.  ...read more read less