In the early stages of the special election for county supervisor, there was a long-shot notion that Chula Vista Mayor John McCann, the lone major-candidate Republican, could be knocked out in the April 8 primary. But as mail ballots arrived at homes throughout the heavily Democratic South Bay Distr ict 1 this week, the basic campaign dynamic seemed clear: Who will join McCann in a likely July 1 runoff? The real competition, as it pretty much has been from the start, is between Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre and San Diego City Councilmember Vivian Moreno. No one is sleeping on Chula Vista Deputy Mayor Carolina Chavez, though she may be overwhelmed by the money, foot soldiers and endorsements behind Aguirre and Moreno. Three lesser-known candidates also are on the ballot. Much of the attention in recent weeks has been on Aguirre. She picked up the crucial endorsement of the local Democratic Party, to go along with backing from the San Diego & Imperial Counties Labor Council and SEIU Local 221, which represents thousands of county employees. Those organizations can pour huge amounts of money and manpower into a campaign. Last weekend, the race was jolted by a social media post from Lee Zeldin, the new administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, who railed against cross-border sewage spills from Tijuana. That’s Aguirre’s top issue and the EPA chief’s comment came after she sent him a letter about the pollution. Meanwhile, McCann has said he had a hand in bringing Zeldin up to speed. For the most part, the Aguirre and Moreno campaigns have been focused on promoting their records, with the Imperial Beach mayor more on the attack through mailers. The seat opened up after then-Supervisor Nora Vargas unexpectedly announced she was stepping down following her resounding re-election victory in November. Her exit left a 2-2 split on the Board of Supervisors between Democrats and Republicans. McCann may not exactly get a free ride through the primary campaign, but the Democrats seem to have conceded he will be one of the two to advance. Internal campaign polls suggest he’s in position to take the top spot in April, though the July scenario will be much different against one candidate with consolidated Democratic and labor support. Beyond that, this standard caveat can’t be stressed enough: Elections can be unpredictable, especially low-turnout, off-year special elections. A candidate can win the seat outright in April by gaining more than 50 percent of the vote, but that seems highly unlikely. Still, McCann has carved out a distinct campaign identity, if one that is not atypical of Republicans. His top issue is public safety and he has been endorsed by the Deputy Sheriff’s Association of San Diego County. The longtime political figure in Chula Vista has been endorsed by the local GOP and emphasized that he would oppose any county tax increases. That’s something some members of the board want to at least study, given concerns about a tightening budget and planned federal funding cuts by the Trump administration. On immigration, McCann recently told KPBS the county “should cooperate” with the federal government and take a “collaborative” approach when it comes to dealing with undocumented immigrants who have committed crimes. Both he and Aguirre have criticized a county policy, approved at the behest of Vargas late last year, to limit cooperation on immigration enforcement beyond the state’s “sanctuary” law. Sheriff Kelly Martinez has said she is ignoring that edict and will follow state law. Moreno may not be matching Aguirre in support among labor and institutional Democrats, but she has significant support among them and substantial financial backing. The San Diego Municipal Employees Association, the city of San Diego’s white-collar union, is behind her along with Laborers International Local 89 (LIUNA Local 89). She’s also been a favorite of business leaders and developers, but is battling McCann on that turf.  She is backed by Community Voices, an independent political committee largely fueled by contributions from builders. That committee recently sent out a mailer that calls Moreno a “Watchdog for County Supervisor,” saying she “opposed EVERY shady real estate deal at the City.” The piece lists the ill-fated 101 Ash St. office building, Mayor Todd Gloria’s failed, expensive effort to turn an empty warehouse into a huge homeless shelter, and a proposal for a new City Hall. Moreno has cited affordable housing and reducing homelessness as top priorities, along with public safety, economic development, doing away with the tolls on SR-125 — which she calls “double taxation” — and addressing the sewage spills. Aguirre has criticized “downtown politicians” in general — shorthand for insular politicians — and her campaign put out mailers claiming Moreno “betrayed flood victims,” citing the city’s yearslong failure to upgrade and maintain stormwater infrastructure prior to the January 2023 deluge that severely damaged south city neighborhoods. Aguirre also has promoted efforts to reduce housing costs and protect tenants, combat homelessness, lower energy costs and get illegal guns off the streets. But her push for a solution to the toxic Tijuana spills that regularly pollute the ocean off Imperial Beach is at the top of her list. She has been on the frontlines lobbying to secure $600 million to fix and expand the international border sewage plant — a project that likely will cost upwards of $1 billion — though much of the heavy lifting for years has been by the San Diego congressional delegation. Just days after Aguirre wrote the letter to Zeldin, he raised the issue on the social media platform X. McCann told ABC News 10 he got word to Zeldin through mutual connections. “I was just briefed that Mexico is dumping large amounts of raw sewage into the Tijuana River, and it’s now seeping into the U.S.,” Zeldin said. “This is unacceptable. Mexico MUST honor its commitments to control this pollution and sewage!” Meanwhile, a mailer from LIUNA Local 89 suggests Aguirre’s efforts have fallen short. “Only one candidate is tough enough to get rid of the stink,” says the mailer backing Moreno. Another LIUNA piece claims the decades-old problem is “Paloma Aguirre’s sewage crisis!” Regardless, there’s a lot of guessing right now about whether Zeldin’s tweet foreshadows further federal action. Something to keep an eye on down the line is whether Trump administration policies on this and so many other things affect McCann’s chances – for good or ill – of pulling off an upset in what should be a sure-thing Democratic district. ...read more read less