Good morning... the title of the blog refers to the numerous watches that have already been hoisted for the area as a result of a very strong and expected area of low pressure to move into the Plains over the next 36 hours. This storm will have it all really. Extreme winds, dust, thunderstorms, snow with near blizzard conditions, and a few other things I'm sure. This will all unfold here in the middle part of the country and while Kansas City doesn't have to worry about the snow aspect of this, that will be up towards the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, everything else is on the table with this. We may be on the edge of a developing line of very fast moving storms tomorrow in the early-mid afternoon. In general winds will be cranking and gusting at 45-60 MPH in the region as a whole, which may lead to some power outages in some areas. Dust and dirt will get sucked into the storms circulation and may leave us with some "mud rains" when things are all done, then cooler air will spill into the region for the weekend (nothing too dramatic). As the character Stefon from Saturday Night Live would say "this place (or storm :)) has everything" Forecast Today: Wonderful with sunshine and light winds. Highs in the upper 70s, perhaps some lower 80s on the south side of the Metro. Tonight: Lunar Eclipse night. Maxes out between 1:26 AM and 2: 30 AM or so. Moon will turn blood red as the earth passes between the sun and the moon so that the earth casts a shadow on the moons surface. We should have comfortable viewing conditions but the winds will be increasing overnight. Gusting to 25 MPH before daybreak. Skies should be mostly clear too for viewing. It will be mild to warm for this time of the year. Lows in the mid to upper 50s Friday: Variable clouds, some brief rain/storms are possible between 12-3PM. Fast moving so they won't last long. Briefly strong to severe, especially on the MO side towards the east and northeast of KC. Warm with highs in the mid 70s. Windy. Gusts may approach or exceed 50 MPH. No burning. A variety of high wind watches and fire weather watches are in effect. Parts of the area are in a level 2-3 severe weather risk (out of 5). Saturday: Mostly cloudy and blustery, especially in the morning. Winds still gusting 30-40 MPH into the early afternoon. Cooler with highs in the low to mid 50s Sunday: Colder in the AM, near 30° with a pleasant afternoon with sunshine. highs in the mid 50s. Discussion What a storm... or soon to be storm for the Plains. What will we NOT get? A blizzard. There is the potential for near to blizzard conditions up across western parts of MN and the eastern Dakotas Saturday. That weather is off the table for us locally. What will we get? Winds, fire weather concerns, brief fast moving rain or storms, extreme winds, gusting in spots to 60 MPH, and perhaps even some dust and dirt blown in from West Texas later tomorrow. Let's dive in. Where is the storm now? Aloft the storm, or dip in the jet stream, is moving through California. It's bringing a lot of rain/some flooding, and mountain snows to many areas of central and southern CA this morning. Most of that state is under a watch or a warning of some sort. Winds, snow, flood etc. Here's radar for out there... The storm aloft will come into the Rockies overnight and that will trigger a response at the surface and that response is a developing area of low pressure in the eastern part of CO during the day today. This will happen in earnest this afternoon and tonight into SW KS. Initially later today, keep an eye into the area of Colorado east of Denver as the surface pressures will be falling fast and a surface cyclone will be developing from an innocuous surface pressure pattern this morning. That surface area of low pressure will drop into SW Kansas and rapidly intensify, perhaps even to the point of achieving "bomb cyclone" criteria (see yesterday's blog. Regardless of whether it does that or not, it's really irrelevant in the effects of the storm in the region. The effects won't change for us really. Where does the storm after it forms? Let's track the main storm through the Plains with the EURO model. For timing this starts at 1PM today and ends at 12AM Sunday. 0Z is 7PM, 6Z is 1AM, 12Z is 7AM and 18Z is 1PM The numbers are the pressures in millibars. The storm may get down to around 978 mbs, which equates to around 28.90". This will approach some record March lows for barometric pressure but I don't this breaks any. So big storm... what does this mean for us? Initially you'll notice the winds tonight picking up while you're out watching the early morning eclipse. Gusts may approach 20-30 MPH towards daybreak tomorrow. This is the result of a tightening pressure gradient. In the map that I showed you before the animation above, the one with the white background and the black lines, those black lines are isobars which are lines of equal air pressure. When they get bunched up closer together, that means there is a larger than typical change of air pressure in a relatively tight space, that leads to increasing winds. That's the first item of concern because as this dynamic and powerful storm comes through the Plains the winds above us will be cranking. The EURO at around 5,000 feet or so is showing winds in excess of 80 MPH on the south side of the area by 4PM tomorrow High winds up there will work their way to the surface, perhaps not in their entirety, terrain friction will slow them down, but you get the idea. LOTS of wind. 45-60 MPH gusts here on the ground are likely from this scenario. The strongest winds will likely be after 2PM or so I think. Some power outages are possible with this as well. A high wind watch is in effect tomorrow. Will this lead to fires? We've had relatively dry conditions this week, and while the soils are still moist, during this time of the year with the grasses and vegetation still dormant, anything above the soil is dried out to a large extent and this especially pertains to grasses. Any ignition combined with wind will result in spreading fires. A fire weather watch is also in effect. OK so what about severe storms? This is a bit trickier. I am expecting cells to develop quickly near the State Line or eastwards/northeast after lunch. There is a small window that this will occur in and whatever forms will be racing(!) away at 60+ MPH. So, whatever happens rain wise will be quick. Moisture return though isn't the greatest for KC proper, so I'm not sure how strong the storms will be locally, BUT there is a pocket of colder air above us coming in to create extra lift to get this process started as well. That lift is created but changes in temperatures from the ground (mid 70s) to around 10,000 feet up (the upper 20s). That's a 45+° swing and that's A LOT. That means the air can rise easier and even without the ideal moisture set-up, you can get thunderstorms to form from this. The SPC has gradually been pushing westwards their risk levels and increasing them into eastern MO MO side now in a level 2 risk out of 5 with level 3 risks east of 65 highway and a level 4 risk east of Columbia, MO For our immediate area, stronger winds are a concern, but the winds will already be cranking so there's that aspect as well. More than likely the stronger winds for the Metro will be AFTER the storms What is the timing of the storm threat for KC? The window is roughly from 12PM to 4PM... and potentially 1PM to 3PM to try to narrow it down more BUT whatever happens will be shorter lived than that window. In and out fast since the storms are moving at hyper speed. Will there be tornadoes? For KC the odds are rather low...for areas farther east into central and north central MO the odds are a bit better. Much bigger concerns into central and eastern MO in that hatched area which indicates a higher than average chance of a significant (EF2+ tornado). Again everything will be moving at hyper speed in this scenario. Will there be surprises? Possible. Whenever we have these real dynamic storms, usually something happens faster than expected and in some cases differently than expected. We just deal with that hour by hour tomorrow. Can we avoid the severe risk locally all together? For the Metro... absolutely and it won't surprise me at all. IF YOU see building thunderstorm clouds to your east in the early to mid-afternoon tomorrow, you're risk of severe weather is near 0. IF YOU feel the air drying out in the afternoon with the humidity crashing, you're risk is 0. Will there be snow? No! That chance will be farther north into the eastern Dakotas and western MN where potentially blizzard conditions may develop up there. From my colleagues at the NWS in Grand Forks this morning. Add in winds of 40-55 MPH to that snow. What about the weekend? As you might imagine a storm this powerful will drag some cooler air southwards BUT it's not really cold air. Just a return to more seasonable conditions over the weekend. We're still in the circulation of the storm though into Saturday morning so winds of 25-35 MPH are possible and with clouds moving through on the backside of the storm... it will be a blustery late winter day. OK that's it for now... the feature photo comes from Matthew Smith in Knob Noster, MO from last night with a halo around the moon. Don't forget about the eclipse tonight! Joe ...read more read less