An important expansion of the Metropolitan Transit System is launching Sunday: San Diego’s first-ever overnight express bus route, from San Ysidro to downtown. The new Route 910 bus is one of many service enhancements local transportation officials have planned for the future. In reality, the 910 may not have a lot of company, at least for a while. MTS may have to shift into reverse as the agency recently revealed it is facing a nearly $100 million budget deficit. Delays in those plans, service cuts and fare increases are on the table, along with appeals for more state and federal money — and possible tax increases. This is far from a uniquely San Diego problem. Transit systems across the nation have been caught in a downward spiral for years. Only billions of dollars in federal pandemic aid — and in California’s case, state aid as well — kept them afloat. That money has almost run out, if it hasn’t already, and officials are struggling with how to replace it. Congress largely eliminated federal operating assistance for transit agencies in the 1990s, but continues spending for capital projects. But federal infrastructure funding often requires matching funds, which may be in short supply for transit agencies these days. The transit operating aid under President Joe Biden was part of the trillions of dollars passed by Congress aimed at keeping the U.S. economy afloat during and immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic. Local governments of all stripes — cities, counties, school districts — benefited from the federal largess. But that was considered one-time emergency aid. Further, funding for public transportation isn’t a priority for President Donald Trump and the Republican majorities in both houses of Congress. It’s unclear whether MTS and other transit agencies are in a typical budget cycle where they must weather a temporary storm or are at an inflection point toward long-term retrenchment. It’s hardly a secret that San Diego’s regional transportation vision has been upended by budget pressures, politics and controversies in recent years. The $160 billion, four-decade transportation plan proposed by the San Diego Association of Governments, the regional transportation agency, was sidelined with the forced exit of its author, former Executive Director Hasan Ikhrata. A transit-focused sales tax increase fell short twice, once in 2022, when one failed to qualify for the ballot, and in November, when another was narrowly defeated by voters. The decades-long quest for a rail link to San Diego International Airport, a marquee project in the county’s transportation plans, finally appears to have petered out. None of this bodes well for future ambitious projects, like the proposed Purple Line trolley from the border to Kearny Mesa, never mind the planned increase of existing bus and trolley runs. Experts say a successful transit system needs to provide frequent, reliable service. “The problem is, when a transit agency goes and cuts service, it ends up reducing the attractiveness of the buses and trains that its riders take advantage of,” Yonah Freemark, a researcher at the Urban Institute, said on marketplace.com “Fewer riders take advantage of those services, and the agency ends up collecting even fewer revenues. And so the cycle then repeats.” Increasing fares also raises concerns about scaring off riders. Meanwhile, the hoped-for synergy of transit and adjacent housing is slow to materialize. Ridership on the 3-year-old Blue Line extension connecting Old Town and UC San Diego continues to increase, “but virtually none of the high-rise housing expected to sprout up along the line has been built — or even proposed,” David Garrick of The San Diego Union-Tribune reported in December. Transit-oriented housing is seen as key to a comprehensive strategy for the region. Getting people out of their cars and onto trolleys and buses is supposed to reduce polluting and global-warming tailpipe emissions and help relieve traffic congestion. Further, the high-density housing likely would include some deed-restricted units for lower-income residents and, in the eyes of advocates, in general would help moderate the county’s high home prices by increasing the market-rate housing stock. Yes, things are grim and the budget shortfall isn’t going away without some hard decisions. But all is far from lost. The number of people riding trolleys and buses is close to where it was before the steep drop-off during the pandemic. “San Diego’s transit ridership is on the road to a strong recovery. Other regions — and the state — should take note,” gushed calstreetsblog.org. in August. Such good news is tempered by the reality that only about 3.5 percent of commuters in San Diego use transit. Still, the pandemic recovery suggests the Metropolitan Transit System is doing something right. Both MTS and SANDAG have been hobbled by controversies in recent years, which hasn’t instilled the public with confidence. If the two agencies can put those in the rearview mirror and show they can operate competently, maybe they can make a stronger argument for more revenue — whether from Washington, Sacramento or local voters. Regardless, transit officials would be wise to back away from grandiose plans with their frightening price tags, at least for a while, and continue to do the little things to improve and incrementally expand existing service that benefit riders on a daily basis. To borrow from baseball terminology, teams have had success playing “small ball.” What they said Jack Pitney (@jpitney), political science professor at Claremont McKenna College. “Conspicuous by their absence, a few words NOT in Trump’s inaugural: deficit, debt, Russia, Ukraine.”