Top three things on my mind as the Bills get ready to play for a spot in Super Bowl LIX... The Soft Spot Greg Rousseau decimated the Chiefs in Orchard Park two months ago. My personal accounting system had him for eight quarterback pressures. Only Ed Oliver against Detroit had more in one game for the Bills this year. No matter what the stat is, Rousseau had a ton of it. He spent so much time in the Kansas City backfield the Bills could have forwarded his mail there. The big problem for the Chiefs was left tackle Wanya Morris. He was just too short to handle the 6-foot-6 Rousseau. Many times on the line of scrimmage, the first man who gets his hands on the opponent wins. Rousseau's arms had enough extra inches to win that battle over and over. Unsurprisingly, Kansas City almost immediately sent Morris to the bench. They moved All-Pro Joe Thuney from guard to left tackle. Interior backup Mike Caliendo replaced Thuney and the Chiefs offense has been better. Their two best offensive games by DVOA were the last two the starters played in the regular season. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor wasn't quite the same problem for KC as Morris, but he's still very gettable. With Thuney moved outside, the Chiefs interior three offensive linemen are no longer the dominant group they were for the first meeting with the Bills. Whether it be Rousseau or Oliver, someone needs to get consistent pressure on Patrick Mahomes from the front four. There were many receivers running free and easy through the Bills secondary back in November that Mahomes couldn't locate because he was busy running for his life from big number 50. Right Run Recipe The Bills have faced the top two run defenses in the NFL to open the postseason. And dominated. Buffalo rushed for more yards against the Broncos and Ravens than anyone else in the NFL. Kansas City was an elite run defense for the first half of the season, but those numbers have nosedived late in the year. They did do a good job in Buffalo. The Chiefs are one of two teams to hold Bills running backs under 50 yards this season (the Rams were the other). I talked with offensive linemen about what didn't work back in week 11. Their response centered on the Chiefs having a good scheme and playing together. No doubt having Chris Jones helps also, but it seemed much more an X and O issue than a physical one. The O-Line feels confident better checks and communication can fix that problem (of course, communication will be more a problem on its own playing on the road this time). The thing I noticed was how good the Chiefs defensive backs were against the run. Normally, the goal for an offense is to block the defensive linemen and linebackers and make the corners tackle. That was no problem for KC who consistently got excellent run defense from the smaller guys. James Cook lately has been exploiting corners on the edge. Defenses will often send their defensive linemen crashing inside to stop a run. None may get through for a tackle, but it does at least gum up whatever hole the Bills are trying to open. Cook has instead used his speed and won races to the edge around defensive backs for chunk runs of 8, 10 or 15 yards. The Bills offense has been nearly unstoppable down the stretch and piling up 150-200 yards on the ground is the foundation for that success. Their offensive line has won against the best the league has to offer the last two weeks. There's no reason to think it can't happen against the Chiefs, if they handle whatever curveballs Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo throws. Beyond that, Cook v Chiefs DBs will be the game within the game. Worthy Adversary Chiefs first round pick Xavier Worthy has put together a sneaky good second half of the season. Over the first nine games of the season, Worthy had four receptions in only one game. His catch percentage (number of targets that become receptions) only reached 50% twice. During the last eight games, Worthy had at least four receptions in all of them. Most games were five catches or better. His catch percentage was better than 50% in every game and he was only below 60% twice. He's also led all Kansas City receivers in touches in every game during this second half run. Worthy has averaged just over 60 combined yards per game and his 437 receiving yards is only four behind Travis Kelce for the best on the team in the last eight contests. Before Bills fans might start getting the shakes due to the flashbacks, but this is not the rebirth of Tyreek Hill in Kansas City. At least, not yet. The majority of Worthy's routes are short stuff. Screens are a chunk for sure, but it's also crossers underneath and quick out routes. Opponents are making sure they don't get beat deep by his speed and the Chiefs have been happy to pile up the free 6-8 yard completions that conservatism allows. The speed is still there with Worthy and he got loose deep a couple times against the Bills. When it comes to all the supporting players on both sides in this game, no one will have more ability and opportunity to hit the one home run that could swing this conference championship. Betting Things My confidence on an Amari Cooper reappearance in the offense was misplaced last week. He received one wildly misfired target against the Ravens and dropped my season record to 8-11. I'm now 2.5 units in the red and probably need a miracle to finish the season square. Not gonna work too hard this week. Josh Allen has scored rushing touchdowns in 7 of his last 9 games, in 4 of his last 5 playoff games and in 4 of his last 6 against Kansas City. There has never been a game where the Bills or Allen will be more willing to put his body on the line. This is a "whatever it takes" game. Plus, I can get this bet at nearly even money (-115 on FanDuel). I need a win and an Allen TD run is one of the more sure bets in football these days. The Pick The Bills roster might be a bad fit for a big, strong running team like the Ravens. That's not the case with Kansas City. A good chunk of Brandon Beane's moves over the years were to win this game against this team. Even if the Chiefs aren't quite the same team as they were three or four years ago. Buffalo will face Kansas City with probably their best group of pass rushers on the front four. Rousseau, this year, has played better than any edge rusher Buffalo brought to a Kansas City playoff game. The Bills will get to throw both Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano at the Chiefs. It's the most athletic pair of linebackers they've had to combat the extended Mahomes dropbacks and the backbreaking scrambles that have inevitably followed (even if Milano is still somewhat battling his recovering body). The Bills have the clearly better offensive line in this matchup for the first time ever. The absence of Taylor Rapp is certainly a concern. Andy Reid found holes in the Bills secondary with Rapp in the game ten weeks ago. There's every reason to believe he'll find more against rookie Cole Bishop. This will still be the best the Bills have matched up against KC in the postseason. I'd argue they have the better roster for this game. I'd also argue the Ravens had the better roster last week and that didn't matter. Von Miller has been preaching to the Bills all year "Don't Blink". That might be exactly what decides this game. Both these teams are masters of ball control. Since they met in early November, Buffalo and Kansas City has one giveaway combined. And it was a Josh Allen armpunt against New England. The Bills 12 turnover free games this year are the most since turnovers were tracked as a stat 91 years ago (NINETY-ONE!). A game this close and this close to the vest could be decided by one mistake. It's a bit concerning for a Bills defense that has lived by forcing turnovers this year. The good news is they faced an even more stingy team in Baltimore last week and still extracted the ball three times. I told lots of Bills fans who where asking my thoughts on Bills-Ravens last week that we'd either discover that the Ravens were just a significantly better team or Buffalo would win. I feel the same about this game, just in reverse. Despite some late season surging, the Chiefs have been about as unimpressive as a 16-2 team gets. Their superpower has been finding a way. That can be contagious. It can be a skill. Buffalo won the regular season matchup with the Chiefs by creating a two-score advantage late. Anything less might not be enough. I've been very impressed by various conversations with Bills players this week. There appears to be a ton of proper perspective. They are approaching the game with the right mix of confidence and release. They are trying to control all the things they can control and don't seem unnerved by the things they can't. Of course, as I listen to all these answers, I assume the Chiefs are equally calm and centered. They've only played in this game six years in a row. Last week, Buffalo was at home facing a team that was missing one important, but not earth shattering starter. This week, the Chiefs are the home and healthy team while Buffalo has a couple wounds to lick. In game with tiny margins, those things matter. There isn't much discussion about Allen in this space because I don't think there has to be. The Bills showed last week they can win big games this year without Allen needing to carry a lion's share of the offense. We've also seen this year he can still power up when needed. I think Allen is going to execute at a high level no matter what Joe Brady asks him to do. Might he make a mistake? Maybe throw an interception? It's possible. Those things happen when a great team meets a great team. I'd be stunned if anyone in Buffalo is shaking their head about how the quarterback played. Same goes for anyone in Kansas City. I don't have a great feel for this pick. I would not be surprised if Buffalo controlled this game start to finish. The math part of me also says four chances should be more than enough for the Bills to cash in at least one, even if the probability part of me knows the last three losses have zero meaning on this game. There's no such thing as being due. I picked the Bills in the regular season because they had a trend of winning those games. I picked the Bills last week because Lamar Jackson and the Ravens had a trend of coming up short in that spot. The trend here is the Chiefs breaking hearts in Western New York. Mahomes and Reid have found a way all year. I think they do it one more time. Give me the Chiefs 30-27.