Jan 23, 2025
On his way out the door, former President Joe Biden seemed determined to cause as much trouble as he could for the Democrats. Worse than the pardons and kvetching about being forced off the ticket, Biden threatened to stay involved in politics.   But that’s one thing Democrats don’t have to worry about. Biden became utterly irrelevant at noon on Inauguration Day. The only people who want Biden in the spotlight now are Republicans. As painful as it is watching President Trump back in the White House, the reckoning for the Democrats will be worse. The party is facing a toxic stew of angry activists, aging leaders, still potent identity politics and a nasty split among its elites. And they are stuck with Kamala Harris as their de facto leader.  It is difficult to overstate how much damage Biden did in his wheezing final moments. He single-handedly destroyed one of the main talking points for the left about Trump and Republicans — that they have no respect for the law. His indiscriminate clemency included a judge who had collected bribes for jailing dozens of children. It also included the perpetrator of the biggest municipal fraud in American history. His encore, a mass pardoning of his own family members for unknown crimes and political VIPs, even drew condemnation from his own party. Democrats are left re-litigating the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot as they air their “Trump is a liar” talking point and express overall self-righteous revulsion at his moral failings. Unfortunately for them, their own side has proven to engage in its own dishonesty and venality. Since the public does not pass judgment after carefully weighing the various lies, Democrats are stuck in a dead-end with their hypocritical moral crusade. In addition, Democrats are hamstrung by identity politics that are increasingly out of favor. The problem is not so much that they support DEI, but that identity politics will keep disqualifying Democratic candidates who could otherwise win in 2028. Is it a requirement that the next nominee be a woman or a minority? How many activists will demand someone from their own tribe? With Trump not on the ballot, it may no longer be an option to suck it up to back a winner, even if that winner is a white male, might not be an option. Amid this maelstrom stands Kamala Harris. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Harris is the definition of a mediocre politician. Like a zombie company, she is just decent enough to survive but will never be a success. It’s all false hope and non-stop burning through capital. For the next three years, Harris will be propped up by name recognition, identity politics and a dash of sympathy. She can get publicity any time she wants. That means she will be the polling leader for the Democrats until the 2028 primaries start. Unless she passes on the race or decides she would rather run for governor of California (which would be a clear sign of insanity), Harris will be the front-runner and leader of the Democratic Party.  Fortunately for the Democratic DEI crowd, two white men who could have been strong contenders have already fumbled their way out of contention. Harris’s running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D) proved inept, to say the least. He was at least no help. In Minnesota, his vote totals continued to drop, from 54 percent when he first was elected governor to 52 percent for re-election to under 51 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is finished; the Los Angeles wildfires incinerated his future. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is the current betting favorite (inexplicably tied with Newsom), benefiting particularly from Walz's flop. Plenty of political analysts thought he should have been the VP nominee. But Shapiro faces two tough problems. First, the teachers’ unions don’t like him over school choice (not that Shapiro is for school choice — he’s just not rabid enough against it for their taste). And secondly, he would test the level of antisemitism in the Democratic Party. The party establishment could recoil at an internal civil war over Israeli-Palestinian relations.  The only other nationally known politico in the mix is Pete Buttigieg. In 2020 he surprised in Iowa but did little after. As secretary of Transportation, he didn’t show up for work for months — and nobody noticed. I firmly believe the Biden White House gave Buttigieg a tryout to replace Harris by putting him front and center in the 2022 midterms, which flopped. He is remarkably unremarkable. After him, there is a nearly endless list of the untested and unready. But politics breeds delusions of grandeur, and the vacuum in Democratic circles invites more delusion than usual. Among those who would work with respect to identity politics, Democrats have done well with governors. That bodes well for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and potentially Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D). Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.) and Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) check multiple identity boxes, too. Would Hakeem Jeffries use his House leadership platform to launch a run? First midterms are not good for the incumbent party, which makes a Democratic House majority a real possibility and good selling point. Perhaps Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) will make another run; really any Democratic senator under the age of 70 is in the mix.  Three other Democratic governors are on the wrong side of identity politics — Kentucky's Andy Beshear, Illinois' J.B. Pritzker and Colorado's Jared Polis. Beshear has won multiple elections in a conservative state, Pritzker has practically unlimited money and Polis has cut a moderate path. And in a party less focused on identity politics, Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) or Tim Kaine (D-Va.) could try to run as winning moderates. Interestingly, Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) is up for re-election in 2028. His iconoclasm, which thrilled progressives in 2022, has become sour to them now, given his unabashed support for Israel and willingness to parley with Trump. Might a progressive primary challenge in Pennsylvania spur him to run for president? The problem for all the wannabes is the zombie candidate, Kamala Harris. If she wants to run, it will be enormously difficult to dislodge her. Democratic elites and betting markets have zero enthusiasm for her at this point. Harris has the distinct whiff of a minor leaguer playing in a game above her head. But the fact remains, millions of Democrats have voters for her twice. She has very high name recognition. Her approval rating with Democrats is 89 percent. She is terrible off-script and does not seem to have much of a belief system, other than the standard progressive talking points. She didn’t have the courage or creativity to separate herself from Biden. And Biden loyalists have treated her like trash since Election Day.  But those things can all work to her advantage. A scripted, generic progressive who can plausibly blame the disgraced Biden for losing in 2024 could be just strong enough to hold off a swarm of inexperienced challengers. Back in 2021, I wrote that Democrats were stuck with Harris, like it or not. It’s now 2025, and nothing has changed. Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.    
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