Joe's Blog: Any big storms in our immediate future? (WED1/22)
Jan 22, 2025
This month we're running more than 8° below average (through yesterday at least) and it's a bitterly cold month for sure (so far). There are nice signs of moderation ahead and after one more brief incursion of arctic air, it should get better (to some degree) over the weekend and into next week.
The good news about the next shot of cold air is it comes in later tonight and retreats on Friday morning... so it's a quickie, if you will. But it will be another chilly day tomorrow. There may be a few snow showers/flurries, somewhere out there today but for most, it won't really be a big deal I don't think.
Plus we'll talk about the historic storm in the deep south. That was impressive, and for many, a once-in-a-lifetime event. Who knows, maybe the seeds for some new meteorologists were planted with a storm like that.
Forecast:
Today: Mostly cloudy and not as cold with highs 30-35°. There may be a few flurries or snow showers this afternoon or evening. Accumulations would be minor and more confined to the Missouri side.
Tonight: Variable clouds with some clearing before daybreak tomorrow. Colder with lows dropping to around 15°. It might be a bit breezy at times as well.
Tomorrow: Any morning clouds will give way to sunshine. Colder with highs in the low to mid-20s.
Friday: Cold morning...down into the single digits, then we'll turn it around and warm up into the low to mid-30s.
Discussion:
Let's start with the historical storm in the Gulf Coast region. It really was remarkable. There were even some thundersnows in some areas. Snow went from the Hill Country of Texas all the way to the outer banks of the Carolinas. It created the most snow though in Louisiana.
The snow swath was impressive!
In Texas...
In Louisiana...
Lafayette, Louisiana officially had 9.5", but there were nearly 11" totals in there as well.
In northwest Florida, Alabama, Georgia.... Babbie, Alabama had 11".
Into the Carolinas...
Lowland, North Carolina had 8.4"...
and then farther up the coast...
The Wright Brothers National Park had 9".
Just an incredible storm.
New Orleans had 8" and there were 12" totals mixed in there as well.
Milton, Florida had 8.5", which breaks the STATE snow extreme record, previously 4.5", almost 100%!
Nationwide, the snow cover is close to 40%.
Notice the lack of snow though across the areas just north of the immediate Kansas City area? It really is remarkable this season that many areas towards the I-80 corridor are lacking snow (so far).
Most of Iowa and Nebraska have had 1-6" of total seasonal snow so far. Then think about some of the maps I just showed you from the Gulf region. Lafayette has had 2-3x's more snow than some of these areas along I-80.
Even if you look towards South Dakota, again, the Gulf Coast is beating that area too. Just one remarkable storm that likely won't be repeated in those folks' lifetimes!
It's a mess down there today and with no available treatments, they sort of have to wait to melt things away. If the cold persists, it'll improve in the next few days though. This was one impressive air mass, and it still is to a lesser degree.
Then there's this... in contrast to the extreme storms in the Gulf region... out in southern California... still bone dry.
When you get the driest start to a winter season in recorded history going back almost 150 years...that's quite telling.
Back in KC, you may have heard the winds last night. They were gusting all night long; upwards of 30+ MPH.
That allowed temperatures to remain steady and even rise, especially with the clouds coming through overnight. This morning, at least we're about 30° less cold than yesterday morning. This next map should auto-update and show the change in temperatures from this time yesterday to now.
The winds should fade a bit today but temperatures will be around 32° give or take a few I think.
Our next chunk of arctic air will be dropping southward out of the upper Midwest later tonight.
It's up towards Minnesota this morning.
The dashed black line is a weak wind shift line. There is actually some down-sloped warm air behind it and that will move through towards lunch.
There may be a few flurries or a patch or two of some light snow behind it later today. Don't think it will be impactful really.
Finally regarding the next big storm, or really any storm of consequence. Nothing really shows up via the EURO model into early February. Here is the total moisture expected through the fifth.
The GFS does have a system to watch though towards the end of January and early February connected to some energy from the Aleutians today. It brings it into California over the weekend and allows it to wallow around in the southwest for about five days before kicking out into the Plains and southern Plains. Low to no confidence in that playout for now.
OK, that's it for today.
The feature photo is from Bruce Fischbach out towards Prairie Highlands in Olathe.
Joe