This was a tough morning. It was tough for folks heading out the door into single digit wind chills. It was tough for me to try and figure out the snow forecast totals for tonight. Starting off with the cold ... We had temps in the teens and 20s this morning, but wind chills were between 6 and 9 degrees for a time. Live Interactive Radar Wind Chills Tuesday Morning Temps won't get much better today. We'll rise to the 20s this afternoon. Plus, wind chills will be in the teens. Temps VS Wind Chills We'll have a mix of sun and clouds this morning with mostly cloudy skies through most of the day. There shouldn't be any precip except for an isolated flurry or snow shower over the Outer Banks. Future Trak This Afternoon We have high pressure in our region with a couple of areas of low pressure across the Gulf Of Mexico. Regional Weather Map The area of low pressure over Florida will move to the northeast today. It has become the main low. It will move quickly to the northeast tonight. However, it will push a lot of moisture up our way. The models are suggesting that the moisture will win over most of the region. Keep in mind that the air is SUPER dry at the surface right now. Dew Points This is something that we have to keep in mind for the snow totals. Winds will be out of north/northeast at 8-12mph today and tonight. That will keep the dry air feed continuing at the surface. However, the upper level moisture is no joke either. This is why the forecast is tricky. The models are in fair agreement on the timing of the system overall. Future trak has snow starting over the Outer Banks by the early evening. Future Trak This Evening There will probably be some virga up our way on the radar during the early evening. Eventually, the air will saturate, and the snow will start to fall. This will be during the later evening. Future Trak Later Evening Future Trak Later Evening The snow will reach farther north between 9 and 11pm. It could reach as far north as the Middle Peninsula and Accomack county. Future Trak 11PM After midnight the low should already be pushing farther out to sea (thought it may strengthen then). So the snow line should drop back to the south quickly between midnight and 3am. Future Trak Early Wednesday AM If Future Trak is right, then most of the snow will wrap up by 5am. Though it could linger longer over the Outer Banks. We'll dry out then over the area. However, a small area of bay-effect snow may create a little more snow over the Southside. Future Trak Wednesday Mid Morning We should dry out and clear out as we go through Wednesday. Low temps will probably be around 20 degrees overnight. Wind chills will be in teens and single digits. Then tomorrow high temps will only be in the upper 20s. Forecast Temps Tomorrow This all means that whatever snow falls will stick. Whatever sticks will stay for a while. We won't get above freezing until Thursday afternoon. Temperature Trend If you've been watching the forecast for the last 3 days, then you know that the models have been bouncing around quite a bit. This morning when I came in most of them had trended with more snow. Here is what they show right now. Snow Forecast 4 Models Here is the update with the 12Z (morning run) of the NAM. It has less snow to the north now, but still has the highest amounts overall. 4 Models With NAM Update As you can tell the NAM model has the highest amounts of those four, and some other versions of that model have shown even more. The trend is still there with the highest amounts to the southeast and lesser amounts to the north. Folks that touted the NAM probably hadn't looked at the latest NWS model (Wakefield). NWS Snow Forecast Wakefield For now this is my snow forecast map. I had trended it up since earlier this morning. Snow Forecast Map That 4-6 inch zone covers most of the Outer Banks, Mainland Dare county, and a little bit into Currituck county. I only have a dusting north of Gloucester and Melfa. Update: I did drag the 2-4 inch zone a bit more to the north. The closer version of my map shows the 3 inch zone (medium blue) over Portsmouth, Norfolk, and northern Virginia Beach. Snow Forecast Map (Updated) 10am That is if the bay-effect sets up. The snow zone could last a little longer over Virginia Beach. So I may have to connect the 3 inch zone to the 2-4 inch zone. We'll see. If you look at all of that, then you may think it's an easy forecast. However, you have to keep in mind a few things. 1. The models have really bounced around over the last few days. At one point even yesterday some models had very little snow. 2. There is some super dry air in place at the surface. That will be tough to overcome. However, it does look like this is happening upstream toward the Tennessee River Valley (to a degree). 3. There also seems to be a small window for the snow in southeast Virginia. That's why there are lower amounts from the Peninsula northward. That also connects to the last reason. 4. The position of the low will be very far to the south. Finally, 5. The NAM does tend to overdo coastal systems. On the other hand ... We have had systems like these before, and they can put down some snow. Also, the clouds have already come in. So there is definitely some moisture upstairs. Also the NAM does get coastal systems right once in a while. We'll see how this fares. For now I have to let it ride. We will tweak the forecast through the day though. So stay tuned for updates. There is a good chance that schools will be delayed tomorrow. There could be some cancellations where the amounts are higher. A couple of non-snow things. Keep the kids off any ice! It will be too thin to walk on. Keep slow-dripping the faucets. Try to stay warm. Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler